Unemployment number down

[Deleted User]

... to lowest for 40+ years..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45181079

Looking forward to the debate about whether the figures are real, fixed, miss out "x" and completely ignore "y".

WR

StevieJ

Includes a slowdown in wage growth. Strange, you would think that wage growth would increase with those low paid EU nationals going home?

The ONS figures also showed the number of European Union nationals working in the UK fell by a record amount.

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

Includes a slowdown in wage growth. Strange, you would think that wage growth would increase with those low paid EU nationals going home?

These are EU migrant workers. Why wouldn't they move if they found a better deal in EU-land?

If you believe in FOM, you have to accept that it creates a mobile/transient workforce.

StevieJ

kabayiri wrote: »

These are EU migrant workers. Why wouldn't they move if they found a better deal in EU-land?

If you believe in FOM, you have to accept that it creates a mobile/transient workforce.

Are they not dragging UK wages down? I would have though that if they leave wage growth would increase?

Herzlos

I'm not sure how it fits with this line from the article:

The CBI said the size of the UK workforce was shrinking at the same time as vacancies for skills and labour were growing.

That sounds like there are less staff and more vacancies. So the reduction of unemployed doesn't seem to be coming from employment. Is this from the EU exodus or creative accounting?

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

Are they not dragging UK wages down? I would have though that if they leave wage growth would increase?

I deal with recruitment agencies quite a bit.

Generally, they will give you a steer on what you need to pay to find XYZ. The common narrative in recent times has been to pitch a bit lower than you want to pay, and you will find what you want.

It seems the balance of power is definitely with the employer. There isn't any sign of panic yet about a shortage of labour.

You might have to wait longer to look for proof.

lisyloo

I think it's great news from a human perspective.
Yes sure some people are earning less than they would like and some don't have the job security they would like but in general it's got to be a good thing.

Thrugelmir

How many people would like to work more hours?

Semi retired who would like to work aren't included in the figures.

Immigrants not registered.

When there's 20 applicants for every low skilled job. Suggests that's much tightening that occur. Hopefully resulting in better levels of pay. Reducing the dependency on benefits.

lisyloo

How many people would like to work more hours?
Semi retired who would like to work aren't included in the figures.
Immigrants not registered.

Sure the figures hide ome detail, but is there any reason to think there are bigger issues than say last year? or the year before?

jonnygee2

These figures are, essentially, lies.

There's an ever so small caveat down near the bttom of the ONS page - same one they've been using for years;

6. Actual hours worked
Things you need to know about actual hours worked
Actual hours worked measures the number of hours worked in the economy. Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.

Commentary
Between November 2017 to January 2018 and February to April 2018, the number of people in employment increased by 146,000 (as explained in Section 4 of this statistical bulletin ) but total hours worked decreased by 4.1 million to 1.03 billion. This decrease in total hours worked reflected a fall in average weekly hours worked by full-time workers.

For February to April 2018:

people worked, on average, 31.8 hours per week, 0.3 hours fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018, 0.4 hours fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since September to November 2012

people working full-time worked, on average, 36.9 hours per week in their main job, 0.4 hours fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018, 0.6 hours fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since April to June 2011

people working part-time worked, on average, 16.4 hours per week in their main job, 0.2 hours more than for November 2017 to January 2018 and for a year earlier

So actually, there were less hours worked.

What's happening is that, with more and more zero hour contracts and underemployment, the amount of available work (which has been decreasing steadily for years) is being spread between more people.

No surprise that wages are not growing.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

Not sure why - unemployment has been on a downward trend for years with little or no wage growth.

Can't see what difference it makes whether a few Europeans go home.

The BoE aren't exactly convinced either - a 0.25% interest rate rise was the prescription for putting the lid on expected wage growth.

It is Stevie putting the conjecture forward, not I.

Long term, the world will be awash with labour, not really an UK thing.

I'd personally like higher labour costs here, because then the demand would shift to more effiency and investment in R&D.