Latest regional house price projections

sugarbabe84

I was wondering if anyone might have the latest house price projections by region?

chucknorris

sugarbabe84 wrote: »

I was wondering if anyone might have the latest house price projections by region?

Whose predictions, Hamish or Crashy?

kinger101

Sorry. I only have a list of all tomorrow's winners at Thirsk.

PasturesNew

You have to ask yourself who has been correct on past predictions.

They have a hat on the floor with numbers in it, once a month they get a passing delivery driver to pull a number out of the hat, they then publish that.

Is anybody ever any good? A region's no good if prices are set at street/house type level. Might area might be "booming" with 10% rises this month - but if only houses costing £1million rose 10% then that's useless to me as an indicator of what's going on out there.

GreatApe

House prices are set such that the person with the average means can buy the average house

Where the crash cheerleaders go wrong is to only look at income and completely ignore savings the stock of capital and other forms of wealth like businesses dividends sale of those or plain simple inter-generational wealth.

I cant blame them, ten years ago I was making the same mistake. I was poor but I didn't realize it. I had an average income and a small amount of savings but no business income or dividend income or any inherited wealth. Fast forward a decade and I have most of those and what looked like a illogical housing market at bubble prices now makes sense as a logical sane market with prices more or less correct.

The simple truth is we cant really change the world or the housing market but you could change your own situation. If you want more in life you are going to have to make that your aim make it your goal. Sitting around spending 10,000 hours on a forum arguing that the market will bend to your will and clearly superior intellect is likely to take you nowhere fast. Maybe spend that 10,000 hours on more productive ventures. Start by getting a higher paid job or more skills or even just work on your health and well being.

caronoel

sugarbabe84 wrote: »

I was wondering if anyone might have the latest house price projections by region?

brit1234 is still predicting a 50% fall for London by Christmas 2009

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

House prices are set such that the person with the average means can buy the average house

Where the crash cheerleaders go wrong is to only look at income and completely ignore savings the stock of capital and other forms of wealth like businesses dividends sale of those or plain simple inter-generational wealth.

I cant blame them, ten years ago I was making the same mistake. I was poor but I didn't realize it. I had an average income and a small amount of savings but no business income or dividend income or any inherited wealth. Fast forward a decade and I have most of those and what looked like a illogical housing market at bubble prices now makes sense as a logical sane market with prices more or less correct.

The simple truth is we cant really change the world or the housing market but you could change your own situation. If you want more in life you are going to have to make that your aim make it your goal. Sitting around spending 10,000 hours on a forum arguing that the market will bend to your will and clearly superior intellect is likely to take you nowhere fast. Maybe spend that 10,000 hours on more productive ventures. Start by getting a higher paid job or more skills or even just work on your health and well being.

Try reading this https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8239 and bear in mind most of people's wealth is tied up in thier home.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Try reading this https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8239 and bear in mind most of people's wealth is tied up in thier home.

I dont have the time to read it right now but I am going to guess its a poor report because almost every single report on wealth I have ever read makes very silly assumptions and conclusions

The biggest problem is these reports do not take into account that income and wealth are interchangeable and can be assigned a value.

Take a pensioner with no savings at all. But he has a £23,500 private pension and a £6,500 state pension. How much wealth has he got? Well he has no savings so a wealth report says he is at zero at the very bottom. But a real financial plan would say he has at least £750,000 in wealth because his £30,000 annual pension is worth that much. Or think of the opposite if I have £750,000 in a savings account you think I am very rich and a report notes that there is a huge gap between me and my £750,000 in the bank and the pensioner with nothing in the bank. A huge wealth gap. I then go and buy an annuity the next day for £30,000 a year that costs me £750,000 I am now just as poor as the pensioner with nothing in savings and the report now concludes there is no wealth gap we are both equally poor

GreatApe

Just scanning the first page it shows the bottom 20% have almost nothing. This is nonsense because like above it assigns their income and benefits as zero wealth. This is clearly nonsense do you think the bottom 20% in the UK live anything like say the average household Liberia? A wealth report would should the bottom 20% in the UK and the bottom 20% in Liberia both have nothing yet their lives are a world apart!

Even a household who does not work in the UK has tremendous amounts of wealth.
Their benefits and free goods and services received have a value in the hundreds of thousands of pounds a year. A single mother with a free house (housing benefits) and free income and free healthcare and free schooling is not poor by any means.

While a report might say she has nothing a fair value of the say £25k a year she receives would put her wealth at a minimum of £500,000 and probably closer to £700,000

Or think of it another way, this poor dear who has nothing can live out 80 years of her life not having worked a single day and having spent in excess of £1 million on herself via the free money housing healthcare schooling and more she gets from others. She is not poor any report which notes her as poor is just stupid and any report that tries to argue the gap between her and a millionaires is so huge its a problem is just lefty stupid propaganda

We live in an amazing country run under an amazing system even he poor in the UK are very wealthy

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

Just scanning the first page it shows the bottom 20% have almost nothing. This is nonsense because like above it assigns their income and benefits as zero wealth. This is clearly nonsense do you think the bottom 20% in the UK live anything like say the average household Liberia? A wealth report would should the bottom 20% in the UK and the bottom 20% in Liberia both have nothing yet their lives are a world apart!

Even a household who does not work in the UK has tremendous amounts of wealth.
Their benefits and free goods and services received have a value in the hundreds of thousands of pounds a year. A single mother with a free house (housing benefits) and free income and free healthcare and free schooling is not poor by any means.

While a report might say she has nothing a fair value of the say £25k a year she receives would put her wealth at a minimum of £500,000 and probably closer to £700,000

Or think of it another way, this poor dear who has nothing can live out 80 years of her life not having worked a single day and having spent in excess of £1 million on herself via the free money housing healthcare schooling and more she gets from others. She is not poor any report which notes her as poor is just stupid and any report that tries to argue the gap between her and a millionaires is so huge its a problem is just lefty stupid propaganda

We live in an amazing country run under an amazing system even he poor in the UK are very wealthy

I would say it's accurate many people have nothing infact a large number are in debt, income is not wealth.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

I would say it's accurate many people have nothing infact a large number are in debt, income is not wealth.

If income is not wealth how is it you can buy an income with wealth? Or even do the reverse in some instances eg like I recently converted my pension into a lump sum.

Instead of being so wedded to your ideology why not admit this is something you hadn't really considered and its worthwhile thinking about before you continue with your idea.

Even a single mother with £20k debt on her credit cards is extremely wealthy.
Her £25k annual income from the state benefits has a value of at least £600,000 minus her credit card debts and she still has wealth of £580,000 what makes it even more amazing is that the credit card company cant go after her other debt and if she declares bankrupt her £600,000 is safe and the credit card company cant touch her

If you want to talk about wealth distribution first convert income and benefits into a net present value then come back and lets compare. Real wealth is far more evenly distributed than people realize and consumption even more evenly distributed that that. Bill gates probably wont eat more food or own more cloths than the single mother and wont even consume magnitudes more housing or healthcare or education than the single mother.