At last: A reason to celebrate

Graham_Devon

House prices are falling.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Refreshing article to say the least!

caronoel

From the article:

With unemployment at its lowest level for more than 40 years and interest rates at 0.5%, the chance of a house-price crash is currently remote.

So even the ever gloomy Guardeeun now believes house prices won't crash.

Hurray!

HPC_Ghuol_Hunter

So you wish to celebrate hard working families going into negative equity or worse, loosing their family homes. All just so that you can pick up someone else!!!8217;s home for peanuts. You disgust me.

bobbymotors

Graham_Devon wrote: »

House prices are falling.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Refreshing article to say the least!

so presumably you are not a home owner and are renting and have done so for a while.

so how far do house prices have to fall so that you will 'be in front' so to speak?

caronoel

bobbymotors wrote: »

so presumably you are not a home owner and are renting and have done so for a while.

so how far do house prices have to fall so that you will 'be in front' so to speak?

Devon has been on here for 13 years, celebrating any bit of negative news.

Sad thing is he missed the chance of a life time to buy just after the great crash of 2008 and like the saddos on HPC, he just derides the efforts of others to buy a home and build a life for themselves.

Soon he will end up like Crashy Time, sitting in a rented bedsit in his late 50s and wondering where it all went wrong

GreatApe

The problem with the crash wishers is they never see a buying opportunity

When prices go up they are about to crash, when prices go down they are about to crash harder so don't buy when prices are going up don't buy when prices are going down don't buy when prices are steady.

IMO now is a buying opportunity
Prices in London are down about 10% and we have had about 5% inflation over the last Twp years so real prices already down 15% from peak. Could they go down more, sure but they could also reverse the trend and do a 2008-2018 and double in price while you watch in anger.

What's the bigger risk. Buying and not timing the exact bottom and over paying by 5-10% vs a hypothetical bigger crash or losing out and waiting for 20 years like some on hoc have been doing?

phillw

bobbymotors wrote: »

so presumably you are not a home owner and are renting and have done so for a while.

so how far do house prices have to fall so that you will 'be in front' so to speak?

It's unlikely that anyone will be able to shift into a new income bracket at the same time as the economy is crashing round them.

Graham_Devon

Take it you guys didn't care for the article much then?

GreatApe

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Take it you guys didn't care for the article much then?

Were so different
If there was a constant house price crash for 20 years we would still get on with life I doubt we would spend twenty years on a website trying to call the end of the hpc and berating everyone and everything that didn't understand why house prices were too cheap and were about to boom by Christmas.

caronoel

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Take it you guys didn't care for the article much then?

Like all your "wisdom", I loved the article Devon, particularly this bit...

With unemployment at its lowest level for more than 40 years and interest rates at 0.5%, the chance of a house-price crash is currently remote

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

If there was a constant house price crash for 20 years we would still get on with life I doubt we would spend twenty years on a website trying to call the end of the hpc and berating everyone and everything that didn't understand why house prices were too cheap and were about to boom by Christmas.

Remember a dinner party conversation over 20 years ago. Where the discussion of rapidly increasing house prices was discussed. When annual rises were double digit.

Hindsight of course is a wonderful thing. We can now look back at the lending practices of B&B, Northern Rock, Alliance and Leicester, Southern Pacific Mortgages (Lehmans), HBOS, Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns etc. Who sourced cheap funds and lent with a total disregard to risk management. That's without the impact of high levels of migration on property prices generally. Likewise the influx of money from overseas invested into residential property. Much which is potentially dirty.

10 years after the GFC. The BOE still cannot raise interest rates off the emergency room floor due to the weak economy, and high levels of personal indebtedness. Seems as if it's currently left to the mortgage lenders themselves to reprice their products.

While not noticable to the eye. There was a significant shift in April. With some 28 members of the CML revising mortgage product lending rates upwards. As one changes others follow. With increased costs and higher levels of regulatory capital required. Lenders will have to make higher margins to survive.

The tortoise ultimately will win the race. However long it takes to get there.