Do you want house price to rise or fall?

movilogo

Unless of course the reason for the drop was a recession in which you also lost your job. You'd then have less chance of buying.

There may not be recession and not everyone will lose job. So, most FTBs would have higher chance of buying from falling prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

movilogo wrote: »

There may not be recession and not everyone will lose job. So, most FTBs would have higher chance of buying from falling prices.

Remind me again how well that worked out in 2008...;)

westernpromise

FTBs tend to be younger and less experienced. Existing owners tend to be their managers. If there's a recession and people in my department have to go it'll me sacking snowflakes not vice versa.

lisyloo

If there's a recession

Yes but that's a huge if and no particular sign of that on the Horizon.
Prices can fall for all sorts of reasons - stamp duty is one you often mention as stopping people moving.
Since the brexit vote we've have anaemic economic growth but very low unemployment.
We've also had lower immigration which support low unemployment.


It is certainly possible for prices to fall without people losing jobs en-masse and in fact that looks more likely than a recession.
We have falling house prices in London but low unemployment.


What you are saying is true, but not the most likely scenario by any stretch.

Filo25

lisyloo wrote: »

Yes but that's a huge if and no particular sign of that on the Horizon.
Prices can fall for all sorts of reasons - stamp duty is one you often mention as stopping people moving.
Since the brexit vote we've have anaemic economic growth but very low unemployment.
We've also had lower immigration which support low unemployment.


It is certainly possible for prices to fall without people losing jobs en-masse and in fact that looks more likely than a recession.
We have falling house prices in London but low unemployment.


What you are saying is true, but not the most likely scenario by any stretch.

To be fair though I think irrespective of cause banks are likely to significantly tighten lending requirements (in terms of higher multiples and higher LTV levels) in times where house prices are falling more significantly.

Lending with the security being a depreciating asset is obviously higher risk than against an appreciating one.

Those restrictions tend to hit FTBs more heavily as they probably tend to be more stretched financially at the time of first purchase (although there will obviously be exceptions)

I agree though that the scale of some impacts will vay depending on the cause of falling prices.

chucknorris

We've got another (sold two already last year) 6 investment properties to sell, plus one home (we just bought one before selling) so obviously I want prices to rise. But what I want is totally irrelevant, I live in the real world so I have to, and do, accept what the actual market does.

triathlon

chucknorris wrote: »

We've got another (sold two already last year) 6 investment properties to sell, plus one home (we just bought one before selling) so obviously I want prices to rise. But what I want is totally irrelevant, I live in the real world so I have to, and do, accept what the actual market does.

Roughly the same here Chuck, I actually sold 3 last year and have another 9 investments properties, one of which is now being used by my model girlfriend who is super successful in her own right. She does not pay much rent though, I mean how could I
Market is probably going to level for a little while, but who knows.

caronoel

triathlon wrote: »

... one of which is now being used by my model girlfriend who is super successful in her own right. She does not pay much rent though, I mean how could I

I thought you were dating Gail Platt or was it Sonia from Eastenders?

lisyloo

Filo25 wrote: »

To be fair though I think irrespective of cause banks are likely to significantly tighten lending requirements (in terms of higher multiples and higher LTV levels) in times where house prices are falling more significantly.

Lending with the security being a depreciating asset is obviously higher risk than against an appreciating one.

Those restrictions tend to hit FTBs more heavily as they probably tend to be more stretched financially at the time of first purchase (although there will obviously be exceptions)

I agree though that the scale of some impacts will vay depending on the cause of falling prices.

Good point.
Rise in lenders valuing homes below sale price


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44202542

lisyloo

triathlon wrote: »

one of which is now being used by my model girlfriend who is super successful in her own right.

Are you Donald trump?