Do you want house price to rise or fall?

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

No of course not, I have never said or suggested that everyone can buy.

This is simply impossible by the fact that about 17% of the housing stock is social so they are not for sale. That caps the max at 83% and we also need a min of about 10%-15% private rental to allow for that transitional tenure to house students/young-people/people-who-own&rent-elsewhere/etc so there is a hard cap towards the 68-73% ownership level

So ~30% cant own they have to live in social or private rentals and this is irrespective of what prices are.

Actually that is wrong because most private renters do go on to ownership
So speaking more accurately the housing stock cant really surpass 73% ownership at any one given time but the population can get to ~83% ownership at some point in their lives.

Those figures are quite good but if you want to improve upon them you have to sell the social stock down. If the social stock was sold down to 10% of the stock then ownership levels would be higher.

Personally I'd gift all social homes to the sitting tenants for free and just put a charge on it for 100% of value payable on death or when they move property. Overnight you would take ownership from around 65% towards 83% but that is another discussion for another time and place

But we are now at 63% and falling.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

But we are now at 63% and falling.

The trend reversed last year.
This is for England

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/710185/LT_104.xls

2017 = 261,000 homes added to the ownership pool and 46,000 reduced from the private rental pool


The main reason ownership feel from 2004-2016 was the mass migration of recent migrants who have a much higher propensity to rent privately. Almost 75% of them do that. And it is not just a price thing at that hold roughly true for all regions despite prices varying substantially between the regions. This mass migration trend will work itself out after some time as the stock of recent migrants stabilizes

If you look at british born citizens their ownership levels did not drop much at are about 5% point higher than the overall uk numbers which include recent migrants.

GreatApe

My guess is over the next 5 years ownership pool will grow by 1 million and private rental will be flat.

If brexit (or other economic factors) reduces migration levels by a lot, then by the late 2020s we will be back towards 68-70% ownership which is more or less the max achievable while we maintain a social stock of 17%

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

The trend reversed last year.
This is for England

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/710185/LT_104.xls

2017 = 261,000 homes added to the ownership pool and 46,000 reduced from the private rental pool


The main reason ownership feel from 2004-2016 was the mass migration of recent migrants who have a much higher propensity to rent privately. Almost 75% of them do that. And it is not just a price thing at that hold roughly true for all regions despite prices varying substantially between the regions. This mass migration trend will work itself out after some time as the stock of recent migrants stabilizes

If you look at british born citizens their ownership levels did not drop much at are about 5% point higher than the overall uk numbers which include recent migrants.

It's no good discussing this with you because you can't look pass the statistics you keep looking up and fail to look at the situation in real world.

I been around long enough to see the problems and have seen housing market go through many changes. Trouble is the discussion here is very polarised with Crashaholics and people who think every thing is rosy and won't accept there is a problem.

chucknorris

GreatApe wrote: »

This is wrong, if you look at FTB numbers it is quite healthy. Almost 1/3rd of all property sales go to FTBs. People might think well 33% going to FTBs is a low figure but it is actually very high because about 1/3rd go to second time buyers and 1/3rd to BTL/Cash/Other.

Also 2017 the number of private rentals fell for the first time in a long time (since the 2004 migration boom). That means ownership increased both in nominal and percentage of the housing stock terms.

So it is hard to make a sound argument that FTBs are having it tough or its nearly impossible.
300,000+ FTBs (most will be couples so closer to 600,000) would prove hpc cheerleaders wrong.

And also as we all here know the UK is a huge spectrum from regions where property is below build cost to z1 London where homes change hands for tens of millions

I didn't say that it was 'nearly impossible' or that they were 'having a hard time' (although some of course would be, but then again that was probably always true). I simply said that it was harder now than it was before, and I don't think that there is anything that you could say that would convince me otherwise. I should of course qualified and limited my statement to the more expensive regions of the South East.

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

If you look at all the capital in the UK minus the debts it comes to in excess of 10 trillion.

In a firesale, assets are not worth their perceived book value. Property needs both buyers and sellers to function as a market. Only takes a small adjustment to create a crash in price.

ukcarper

chucknorris wrote: »

I didn't say that it was 'nearly impossible' or that they were 'having a hard time' (although some of course would be, but then again that was probably always true). I simply said that it was harder now than it was before, and I don't think that there is anything that you could say that would convince me otherwise. I should of course qualified and limited my statement to the more expensive regions of the South East.

Take Guildford average house price £433k Mortgage required after 10% deposit £390k so joint income of almost £100k 70% percentile for full time earnings in Guildford just over £40k

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Take Guildford average house price £433k Mortgage required after 10% deposit £390k so joint income of almost £100k 70% percentile for full time earnings in Guildford just over £40k

Good thing the good people of Guildford also have a credit card to tap into their portion of the £10 trillion national wealth to help them afford property.

How do you think Guildford property got more and more expensive over the last 5 years? Surely your unaffordability argument held true in 2013 Guildford too. If you claimed give years ago Guildford was unaffordable yet five years have passed of people affording to buy in Guildford. How so?

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In a firesale, assets are not worth their perceived book value. Property needs both buyers and sellers to function as a market. Only takes a small adjustment to create a crash in price.

Sure I agree fully. The problem you have though is these fire sale events generally dont happen very often and the trend has been for them to happen less and less. I'm sure during the black death you could have picked up homes for two ha penny or during WW2 in inner London and to a lessor extent recessions which tend to drop prices 0-30%
The problem however is that in these fire sale periods you too are likely to be affected and not want to bid or buy and they come around maybe once or twice in an adult lifetime and you only really benefit if you times it perfectly. Someone who was going to buy in 2007 but decided to wait two years benefitted marginally. Someone who was going to buy in 2006 or earlier but put it off did not benefit but lost

Also the opposite is also true, when the economy is growing when the population is growing and when unemployment is low you get house prices increasing at a rate faster than inflation

Graham_Devon

GreatApe wrote: »

You are so deep in the confirmation bias pit you dont even realize it
CAPITAL not bank account savings

Capital is property shares land pensions other buildings businesses gold art cars everything

Oh sorry, my bad, I forgot most people had land, gold and art lying around.

Apologies.