House Price Crash Discussion Thread

IveSeenTheLight

Bullion_Baron wrote: »

2.9% isn't that great. I can get 6.5% on a TD here in Australia. Much safer with no downside risk.

Massive downside risk with property, especially if you're leveraged to the hilt!

The 2.9% is the yearly compound interest above inflation over the last 30 years just on the house price.

Is your TD returns inflation adjusted?
Do you additionally receive a monthly profit from investing in TD?
Sure there are different risk and return investments, no one is arguing against that

P.S. TD?

P.P.S. I'm not leverages to the hilt, indeed all of my properties have seen a reduction in the outstanding mortgages, their valuation have increased since I bought and hence have a lower LTV

Bullion_Baron

TD = Term Deposit

Zoran_Ilievski

Bullion_Baron wrote: »

Absolutely, the Aussie property market is doomed. The party's over bulls and you know it! Everyone knows it. Vendors are now taking their overpriced homes off the market and putting them up for rent because they can't sell! It was obvious asset prices couldn't keep rising forever! Australia has a serious debt problem that needs to be addressed. But at the moment it’s not even being acknowledged. Why not? Could it be that if we acknowledge the debt and the need to deal with it, we have to acknowledge its cause?

This exact result has been predicted on !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! for a long long time and now the reality is hitting the property speculators that their bulletproof assets are going up in smoke! Ha! Speculators have been participating in a Ponzi scheme with their assets, and their future? It was always unsustainable. Now they're doomed!

Melbourne is the canary in the coalmine of Australian property, and it's one very sick yellow bird. Melbourne stock is building up alarmingly, and yet the builders just keep on building. There's a huge pipeline of units under construction and as they hit the market over the next 12 months we'll see a real estate bloodbath the likes of which have never been seen. Auction results have collapsed (see !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/blog/main/3541120 ) and FHBs have deserted the market. The daft spruikers are still out there saying it's a great time to buy but when the extent of this crash becomes obvious, they'll be nowhere to be seen!

I think you're wrong. House prices have been shown to double every ten years or thereabouts.

Don't panic about these minor little corrections, they blow over and it's always onwards and upwards again.

But hey, let me know when the 'bloodbath' begins. I think we'll have a long wait.

And what's with all the exclamation marks?

Bullfighter

Zoran_Ilievski wrote: »

I think you're wrong. House prices have been shown to double every ten years or thereabouts.

Don't panic about these minor little corrections, they blow over and it's always onwards and upwards again.

But hey, let me know when the 'bloodbath' begins. I think we'll have a long wait.

And what's with all the exclamation marks?

Garbage. Utter garbage.

If your logic was correct then the house average house price in 40 years time will be £5.12 MILLION. That means that the average buyer would need to be earning £1.7 MILLION a year.

harryhound

Sounds like Zimbabwe, pre-war Germany, Argentina, Albania ........................

,,,but these are far away places of which we know very little.

My dad built a modest house on a modest plot in the 1950's - for 5,000
I sold it in 2005 for £700,000, but of course in the 1950's the country was loaded with debt, had a huge balance of payments problem, could not afford to import the timber to build house roofs, had a nationalised coal industry and no oil.
It took North Sea oil to pay off those inflated away debts.
Tell me how are we going to repeat the trick?

I know - stop fighting wars?

ukcarper

Bullfighter wrote: »

Garbage. Utter garbage.

If your logic was correct then the house average house price in 40 years time will be £5.12 MILLION. That means that the average buyer would need to be earning £1.7 MILLION a year.

That's what they have done since 1971 your figure is 5 years by the way. The average house price is now about £160k so in 40 years it will be worth £2.6 million. Between 1969 and 2009 average wages increased 23x if the same happens over the next 40 years the average wage will be £575,000. I don’t think that will happen again but it has happened before and could again

sabretoothtigger

We will all be millionaires, there is no doubt

kriss_boy

LoopBook7 wrote: »

Apparently prices are now supposed to be on the up due to better mortgage deals on the market. You just don't know what to believe - it's always a good bet for the media to have a quick piece on house prices since it applies to so many people..

My brother is off to view a nice little property as a potential buy to let. Its at a fixed price of 98K when 4 years ago one of our friend bought hes for 145K and its on a slightly smaller plot.

I cant see prices returning to the highs we saw a few years bac. Not for many, many years to come.

You could argue that the intrinsic value of property hasnt slumped so much, but rather the limited availability of credit and young people with deposits has just magnified things.

I've watched a really nice house drop from 189K, to 179K, all the way down to 138K. Its utterly astonishing there have been no takers but you begin to ask yourself- is it even worth 138K the way things are right now!!

puppy999

My house was valued at £235,000 in 2007 since then its had the roof releaded all stone gutters leaded new double garage doors on and £10,000 on windows and doors its just been valued at £110,000 ????????? a drop of £125,000
It was built in 1800 and as thick stone walls open views at the front and know one over looking at the back parking for 2 cars in the garage and 2 outside and its in a nice quite area.

Charles1968

puppy999 wrote: »

My house was valued at £235,000 in 2007 since then its had the roof releaded all stone gutters leaded new double garage doors on and £10,000 on windows and doors its just been valued at £110,000 ????????? a drop of £125,000
It was built in 1800 and as thick stone walls open views at the front and know one over looking at the back parking for 2 cars in the garage and 2 outside and its in a nice quite area.

Is it in Northern Ireland?