House Price Crash Discussion Thread

J_i_m

Willing prices to drop isn't really and different or worse than willing prices to rise, buyers want to spend less, sellers want to make more. It's natural that the opposite sides want the best conditions for themselves.

I'm well within my rights to hope for prices to drop a bit. Whether that happens or not is another thing, I'm not qualified to predict it, but it's not going to stop me from having a interest in prices falling as opposed to rising or whatever.

At this point in time I'm at the very beginning of my saving phase, I hope that it only takes me 2 or 3 years to save 20K. But it's really quite hard to predict for a multitude of reasons.

I may well have said that I might need £40K deposit for a property of £180K, but at no point did I say that I was aiming at a property of 180K. Quite the contrary I'd much rather have the comparable property with asking price of 130K.

People may find my musing unclear, there's no need for me to be clear to you, at this point it's idle speculation for me, and perhaps people shouldn't be so ready to make assumptions about other people's situations or intentions.

Reactor_2

J_i_m wrote: »

Willing prices to drop isn't really and different or worse than willing prices to rise, buyers want to spend less, sellers want to make more. It's natural that the opposite sides want the best conditions for themselves.

I'm well within my rights to hope for prices to drop a bit. Whether that happens or not is another thing, I'm not qualified to predict it, but it's not going to stop me from having a interest in prices falling as opposed to rising or whatever.

At this point in time I'm at the very beginning of my saving phase, I hope that it only takes me 2 or 3 years to save 20K. But it's really quite hard to predict for a multitude of reasons.

I may well have said that I might need £40K deposit for a property of £180K, but at no point did I say that I was aiming at a property of 180K. Quite the contrary I'd much rather have the comparable property with asking price of 130K.

People may find my musing unclear, there's no need for me to be clear to you, at this point it's idle speculation for me, and perhaps people shouldn't be so ready to make assumptions about other people's situations or intentions.

As this is a discussion, people are going to write about their opinions, if they feel strongly about them, and people will ask challenging questions when the answers don't seem obvious.

I think people are naturally curious and will ask questions to discover the truth, and as you have mentioned that the numbers you are mentioning are purely speculative, it will answer most people's curiosity.

People will also make assumptions about other people, which may or may not be true, but this will not change anytime soon. I think it's more important that people learn from their mistakes, otherwise they will keep repeating them, though I realise that people tend to not like admitting when they are wrong.

I don't think your goal of saving £20k in 3 years is unachievable as it is just a matter of discipline and budgeting. Good luck!

IveSeenTheLight

J_i_m wrote: »

I may well have said that I might need £40K deposit for a property of £180K, but at no point did I say that I was aiming at a property of 180K. Quite the contrary I'd much rather have the comparable property with asking price of 130K.

So your hoping for a 28% drop in nominal prices, in order for you to get the top of the range 2 bed property to come down to what you believe is an acceptable level.

No problems with you hoping for it.

How does your specific area compare i.e. population statistics, house building, joobs, unemployment, LHA / HB recipients etc?

Is it condusive to expect a 28% drop in prices? Is there a massive over supply of properties sompared with potential demand?

J_i_m

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

So your hoping for a 28% drop in nominal prices, in order for you to get the top of the range 2 bed property to come down to what you believe is an acceptable level.

*slaps forehead :doh:

Where have I said that I'm aiming to get the top of the range price? Haven't I already admitted that I'd quite welcome a significant price drop? Haven't I already noted that comparable properties in my target seem to range from about 130k to 180k in-spite of being similar properties in the same area?

Do you really think I'd hope for a 180k property to drop to 130k simply for prestige? Don't you think I'd being having a good look to see if the 130k property had also dropped in price?

No, I'm sorry, but far too much has been read from my initial post. The truth of the matter is simply that I'd welcome houses prices to drop, why? Because it would probably make it more affordable to me and it certainly doesn't have anything to do with wanting a "top of a range" property.

@ Reactor. Have to be careful saying what savings are achievable. Different people have different incomes and different outgoings. What may be achievable for one person may be pie in the sky dreamland for someone else. I've set myself a target that should be achievable once one or two of my current debts are settled. But unfortunately my already modest income is likely to be cut somewhat, so things are far from certain for me.

IveSeenTheLight

J_i_m wrote: »

*slaps forehead :doh:

Where have I said that I'm aiming to get the top of the range price? Haven't I already admitted that I'd quite welcome a significant price drop? Haven't I already noted that comparable properties in my target seem to range from about 130k to 180k in-spite of being similar properties in the same area?

Do you really think I'd hope for a 180k property to drop to 130k simply for prestige? Don't you think I'd being having a good look to see if the 130k property had also dropped in price?

No, I'm sorry, but far too much has been read from my initial post. The truth of the matter is simply that I'd welcome houses prices to drop, why? Because it would probably make it more affordable to me and it certainly doesn't have anything to do with wanting a "top of a range" property.

@ Reactor. Have to be careful saying what savings are achievable. Different people have different incomes and different outgoings. What may be achievable for one person may be pie in the sky dreamland for someone else. I've set myself a target that should be achievable once one or two of my current debts are settled. But unfortunately my already modest income is likely to be cut somewhat, so things are far from certain for me.

Equally *slaps forehead :doh:

Originally Posted by J i m
I may well have said that I might need £40K deposit for a property of £180K, but at no point did I say that I was aiming at a property of 180K. Quite the contrary I'd much rather have the comparable property with asking price of 130K.

J_i_m

Indeed... I shall stop trying to reach you then

geraint85

J_i_m wrote: »

Patience is all very well... but equally I have to consider how long of my life I'll be repaying the mortgage. I'm not a particularly high earner, and I don't envisage being one either. By the time I'll have this deposit saved (assuming I'll still be gainfully employed that is) I'll already be in my 30's. And quite frankly... seeing as how mortgages cover 25+ years, and how I doubt I'll be in a position to overpay, I can't afford to delay too long, since I really don't need to be repaying a mortgage well into my retirement.

I'm 25 and bought my first house about 6 months ago..

You can chose to pay back your mortgage over whatever period you wish, so long as it doesn't run into your retirement age. I chose to pay back the mortgage over a 35 year period. I chose to do this to lower the total amount of money I was contractually obligated to pay back on a monthly basis. I can still overpay my mortgage by 10% of the outstanding mortgage amount (currently about £6000 a year, or £500 a month on a £60k mortgage), therefore could pay it back quicker than the 35 years if I wish.

I do plan on eventually over paying my mortgage to pay it back quicker, but at the moment I’m the sole financial provider of a family of three on £17k a year, so until my partner’s health improves enough to get a job, I’ll be paying the minimum amount.

But my point is, that you could take out a mortgage at the age of 35 over a 15, 20 or 25 year period if you wanted. So long as it’s b4 the national age of retirement…


can some1 confirm the above, as i'm also new at all of this.

J_i_m

You also have my respectful moral support for solely supporting a family of 3 on 17K a year.

I've ended up taking home between 18-20k the past two years and can barley support myself, so well done to you

cherry-picker

geraint85 wrote: »

I'm 25 and bought my first house about 6 months ago..

You can chose to pay back your mortgage over whatever period you wish, so long as it doesn't run into your retirement age.

can some1 confirm the above, as i'm also new at all of this.

This was the case, but a couple of things have changed now. The state retirement age is being pushed up to 70 (for most people who are in the market for taking out a mortgage) and employers are no longer allowed to insist that someone retires at a certain age. This makes assessments of ability to payback capital over the term, and also monthly affordability more complicated than it was before. Mortgage companies should no longer take the view that someone is going to retire by a certain age when assessing affordability as this is against public policy. What they tend to ask now is "What age do you plan to retire", therefore if you want a longer term mortgage, tell them that you don't plan to retire until you're 80!!

I must admit that to me this seems like a slightly perverse situation as it encourages lending for longer terms. By increasing terms in this way it makes monthly repayments more affordable and ultimately could act to increase asking prices over time. Let's face it, when looking at mortgages as consumers we tend to look at how much it will cost per month, not the total amount of the capital. Once 30, 35 or even 40 year mortgages become the norm then house prices will inevitably increase.

As an aside, the word mortgage comes from the French (Mort = to die, Gage = a pledge), and at this rate it may become more common for people to end up paying the total debt they owe by the bank taking a charge on their estates to pay off the remaining outstanding capital when they die!!

rxbishop

I'd never consider more than 25 years for a mortgage. Ideally i'd like 15 or even 10 years. after 25 years the repayments don't decrease very much as you inicrease the time to 30 or 35 etc so not worth it imo. If you had a 40 year mortgage, I'm guessing that you've hardly paid any of it off after the first 5 or even 10 years. It'd be a bit depressing paying a mortgage for 10 years and still only having paid off say 10% of what you owe.