House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Elliot.Rigsby

My thoughts exactly.........
The writing on the wall!

nikki-read

buy now, buy now, buy now

IveSeenTheLight

This thread get's less than 1/2 dozen new posts per month, most of which are hardly condusive for debate.
Time to unstick this thread I think

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm a private landlord with a couple of properties that I rent out.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: Gosh. Thats a fairly select club. You're a regular donald trump.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: Gosh. Thats a fairly select club. You're a regular donald trump.

I don't claim to be donald Trump.
I have a better hairstyle

Other than that your post is irrelevant and worthy of the rolling smileys

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I don't claim to be donald Trump.
I have a better hairstyle

Other than that your post is irrelevant and worthy of the rolling smileys

Whoops. Touched a nerve.
Sorry Lighty babe.

Clearly being part of the BTL massive makes you a clever and highly original market expert.

I mean, its not as if they were handing out BTL mortgages like sweeties to any clown who could leave a thumbprint or anything.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

Whoops. Touched a nerve.
Sorry Lighty babe.

Clearly being part of the BTL massive makes you a clever and highly original market expert.

I mean, its not as if they were handing out BTL mortgages like sweeties to any clown who could leave a thumbprint or anything.

LOL, no nerves touched.
I find you quite amusing now that I understand you a bit better.

Keep up the good work, your doing a grand job........... of making yourself look like a nutter

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

LOL, no nerves touched.
I find you quite amusing now that I understand you a bit better.

Well we are in the "getting to know you" phase of the courtship, aren't we honey bunny. :rotfl:

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

Well we are in the "getting to know you" phase of the courtship, aren't we honey bunny. :rotfl:

Whatever floats your boat...............

Reactor_2

For definition's sake, let's say a crash is a loss of 20% or more and I think it's reasonable to assume that liquidation is only going to happen if the owner or bank needs the money.

Given the scale of the credit blow-up, I think it is reasonable to assume that most of market has NE and bought with mortgages when the rates were higher with products related to the credit blow-up.

I think that those with NE are not going sell and realise a serious loss, but are more likely to weather the storm and keep making the payments. As they took out the mortgages when the rates were higher than they are now, we can also rule out higher interest rates causing a crash.

Therefore employment is the main factor that can cause a crash: if you're out of a job too long, you won't be able to pay the mortgage and you will be forced to sell or get repossessed.

As most of the heavy lay-offs have been done already, if you have survived NE so far, you should be fine in paying off your mortgage, but whether you break-even is another issue as the barrier to entry with higher deposit rates will mute demand and price appreciation.

There is one other scenario that is more of an outlier and that is World War 3. In this scenario I'm pretty sure everyone will be selling their homes and using the cash to get them somewhere safe, until people will not exchange the pound for anything. I don't think World War 3 is likely, but as there is inherent instability in all social systems, it only takes a press of a button to cause worldwide armageddon.

As a result, I think the general housing market is going to be stagnant for the next decade at least, if not two. The only way to get the economy going again is through a massive innovation giving the UK a massive advantage and benefiting everyone. This is unlikely, as any life changing innovation, will need to be more sophisticated and complex than what is already out there as all the easy ideas have been done already. This means it will only benefit the talented people who make the discovery rather than the broader economy.

Thanks for reading and I welcome your thoughts.