House Price Crash Discussion Thread

codger

Youngstar:

The essence of a "bargain" is certainty. The absence of certainty is what's accelerating the decline in property values.

You don't need to have sight of the text beneath the transparent cover of a daft Government Minister's briefing paper to know that the momentum currently underway is going to increase. Not decrease.

So yes, by all means, try and get a bargain (though be careful: generalisations about the market are as dangerous as negative equity -- some property types are more vulnerable to dramatic falls than others.)

But no. Don't go looking for that bargain yet. Time is on your side.

moanymoany

We suffered loss on our house in the last crash, this time I saw the light and did what I had to do to sell the house March/April/May. This is because we needed some of the equity for our retirement fund.

We are now in rented and we wait for prices to fall to buy our retirement house near the coast. Money is in the bank.

However, I feel deep sympathy for anyone who has bought a house and are finding things difficult to deal with. It may be that they should have 'thought ahead', but sometimes people simply want a home. Not everyone has the skills to research the housing market.

It is not a good thing to say they are stupid for buying. It takes a lot of research and work to know that the market is stalling. I realised last year that things were on the turn. Mainly I thought that personal indebtedness was too high and had to have a significant effect on housing.

As it was it was not that which was the prime mover in the credit crunch, however it was a factor. I had been watching my local market closely because I was driven by my desire to retire next April.

I'm more inclined to think that people should say 'there but for the grace of god' that 'what a stupid pillock'. There are some hard times ahead for all of us.

codger

moanymoany wrote: »

>
However, I feel deep sympathy for anyone who has bought a house and are finding things difficult to deal with. > It is not a good thing to say they are stupid for buying. It takes a lot of research and work to know that the market is stalling. I realised last year that things were on the turn. Mainly I thought that personal indebtedness was too high and had to have a significant effect on housing.
I'm more inclined to think that people should say 'there but for the grace of god' that 'what a stupid pillock'. There are some hard times ahead for all of us.

Lovely post, moany. And agreed: no-one should be accused of stupidity nor, indeed, anything else. As to research / warning signs though, I guess it all depends on the luck you have (at the expense of others) in gaining an accurate perspective.

Our perspective came about when our son, who still lives with us, said no matter how much he saved for a deposit, he couldn't keep up with the rise in house prices. That was when we first looked at the market. And that -- four years ago -- was when we (probably, belatedly) realised the world had gone mad.

Now that the obscenity of the price bubble is popping -- and oh boy, it certainly is an obscenity -- I look forward to the day when prices have actually "crashed" to the point where FTBs using a 4x or 5x single salary multiple can get a mortgage (and when all the scavenging Johnny-Come-Lately Estate Agencies that have sprung up in my area have gone bust.)

As to the BTLs. . . my heart bleeds.

tradetime

I look forward to the day when prices have actually "crashed" to the point where FTBs using a 4x or 5x single salary multiple can get a mortgage (and when all the scavenging Johnny-Come-Lately Estate Agencies that have sprung up in my area have gone bust.)

Sadly a "crash" runs the risk of taking several large banks with it, the aftermath of this may be a country few want to own a house in. Whilst the rise in property prices has been absurd, I think those clamouring for a "crash" might want to take a little time to consider the wider implications. I personally am happy to wait for an orderly decline, even though I fear that is not what we will get

codger

tradetime wrote: »

Sadly a "crash" runs the risk of taking several large banks with it, the aftermath of this may be a country few want to own a house in. Whilst the rise in property prices has been absurd, I think those clamouring for a "crash" might want to take a little time to consider the wider implications. I personally am happy to wait for an orderly decline, even though I fear that is not what we will get

Fair point, tradetime -- though I purposely used quotes around the word *crashed*, as methinks you also did in your reference to it.

Agreed, then, though not for any reason involving consideration of banks and bankers, but out of genuine sympathy for those who had no choice but to enter the market as FTBs in the past couple of years. They're the ones most vulnerable to a pain that will be even more undeserved than all the fat bonuses that kept a viciously venal banking sector so well-fed for so long.

No, I don't want to see a "crash" which would almost literally bring down the house around the heads of those who bought from 2006 onwards.

But I do, I really, really do, yearn for the day when this Society of ours is back into some kind of sensible, moral, balance, where those who seek a house as a home are not priced out by those to whom a house is just another "investment opportunity". . .

And where the Adam Applegarths of this world get what they deserve, rather than that which they finesse.

Youngstar

Thanks codger for your post.

As a first time buyer, i'm now willing to wait it out until i feel the time is right, so i just have to keep saving.

thanks all your post are very informative and helped me to keep up to date with the current market issues

y*

Turnbull2000

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Looks like this one may reach a year on the market. For sale sign remains.

Two months gone - two viewers, no offers.

Board was taken down last week, now re-advertised with their THIRD estate agency. Asking prices have been:

First EA - 500K from end of last summer

Second EA - 450K, then 425K starting from January

Third EA - 399K from this week

http://www.davidjosephestates.co.uk/Page/PropertyDetail.aspx?PropertyId=110216&backStyle=pinkBack

abaxas

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Board was taken down last week, now re-advertised with their THIRD estate agency. Asking prices have been:

First EA - 500K from end of last summer

Second EA - 450K, then 425K starting from January

Third EA - 399K from this week

http://www.davidjosephestates.co.uk/Page/PropertyDetail.aspx?PropertyId=110216&backStyle=pinkBack

I'm a geordie lad, and moving back up in 2 months after a 3 year stretch in Sheffield.

!!!!!! is that! What has the NE become? That is not a house, it's a converted care home!

Bring it on, the NE deserves it's quality of life back.

codger

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Board was taken down last week, now re-advertised with their THIRD estate agency. Asking prices have been:

First EA - 500K from end of last summer

Second EA - 450K, then 425K starting from January

Third EA - 399K from this week

http://www.davidjosephestates.co.uk/Page/PropertyDetail.aspx?PropertyId=110216&backStyle=pinkBack

Another £100k still to go, then maybe time to make an offer?

Mary_Hartnell

Getting top prices for your corn plus a nice big subsidy even if you stay in bed for most of the day, all helps to keep up property prices.

If and when the figures sent to the European Commission get published here, where will we find the richest landowners living? Cities of London & Westminster anyone?

http://maps.farmsubsidy.org/sweden

[There are loads of farms registered in Stockholm]

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2hbaA3...ube% 2F060907

[Not to mention New York & Washington].