House Price Crash Discussion Thread

dweeby

Mr._H wrote: »

Another significant month-on-month fall in house prices according to Halifax:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7336010.stm

However, "Despite the drop in prices, Housing Minister Caroline Flint denied that the market was heading for a crash."

What exactly is the definition of "crash"? Do we have to wait for significant (>10% ?) year-on-year declines to be able to say that? Is anything less just a "correction"?

Thing is, according to your link - house prices are still up on the 12 months - by 1.1%. Hardly a "crash".

With prices still higher than 12 months ago, it's fair to say that anybody who bought more than a year ago is still fine. It's also true to say that if someone bought now, they'd gain the advantage of the recent drops - so they'd be fine (at least for the moment).

So currently, who is the "crash" affecting? only people who bought in the last perhaps 7-8 months, according to the info in your link. So, not many people.

What's going to happen next, that's the question. I know everyone here is expecting a big drop, but (according to your link) this hasn't happened yet.

Turnbull2000

dweeby wrote: »

Thing is, according to your link - house prices are still up on the 12 months - by 1.1%. Hardly a "crash".

With prices still higher than 12 months ago, it's fair to say that anybody who bought more than a year ago is still fine. It's also true to say that if someone bought now, they'd gain the advantage of the recent drops - so they'd be fine (at least for the moment).

So currently, who is the "crash" affecting? only people who bought in the last perhaps 7-8 months, according to the info in your link. So, not many people.

What's going to happen next, that's the question. I know everyone here is expecting a big drop, but (according to your link) this hasn't happened yet.

I'm taller than I was 20 years ago. Am I still growing?

m00m00

ignore the sophistry and the spin of the analysis look at the real figures.

The unaltered non-seasonally adjusted data:
Jan-07 184,067
Feb-07 189,197
Mar-07 193,180
Apr-07 198,206
May-07 199,264
Jun-07 199,458
Jul-07 200,578
Aug-07 201,081
Sep-07 200,168
Oct-07 197,817
Nov-07 194,258
Dec-07 195,333
Jan-08 191,275
Feb-08 193,448
Mar-08 190,619

so a fall of close to 3000 is a rise of 1.1% ?

Mr._H_2

chucky wrote: »

as i tried to say previously... stop trying to spread panic amongst others, there is no crash at the moment - it doesn't mean that there won't be one.

I'm not trying to "spread panic". Again, I just asked some questions (which interestingly no-one has answered). How would you define a "crash"?

Surely a thread entitled "House Price Crash Discussion Thread" is an excellent place to post links to news on house prices for the purposes of stimulating further discussion on whether or not there is/is-going-to-be a house price crash?

chucky wrote: »

the price dropping of 'better' properties will always be less than properties which would never be in demand

Hmmm.... that's not actually what you said last time:

chucky wrote: »

also the better properties will always maintain their price.

Which is it: the price of "better properties" never goes down (always maintain their price), or just fall less (but still fall = not maintaining their price) than other properties?

madeane

I am far from an expert but from what I read and from memory (i was in negative equity in the 90's) the general economy was weaker then and unemployment was very high, it would take a hell of a lot to happen to get to that stage imminently. Just sit tight and be cautious and make sure that you have a repayment mortgage. Some newspapers take delight in panicking everyone basically because there is not much else to report and they need to keep selling newspaper!!

Mr._H_2

m00m00 wrote: »

ignore the sophistry and the spin of the analysis look at the real figures.

The unaltered non-seasonally adjusted data:
Jan-07 184,067
Feb-07 189,197
Mar-07 193,180
Apr-07 198,206
May-07 199,264
Jun-07 199,458
Jul-07 200,578
Aug-07 201,081
Sep-07 200,168
Oct-07 197,817
Nov-07 194,258
Dec-07 195,333
Jan-08 191,275
Feb-08 193,448
Mar-08 190,619

so a fall of close to 3000 is a rise of 1.1% ?

Where did those figures come from? How does "seasonal adjustment" manage to make a year-over-year comparison change from what it actually is (1.3% fall) into something else (1.1% rise)? This is very odd.

dweeby

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

I'm taller than I was 20 years ago. Am I still growing?

I'm shorter now than I was when I woke up, am I shrinking?

Anyway, what's you're hight got to do with house prices?

m00m00

Mr._H wrote: »

Where did those figures come from? How does "seasonal adjustment" manage to make a year-over-year comparison change from what it actually is (1.3% fall) into something else (1.1% rise)? This is very odd.

it's because their YOY figure, is actually a fudge of rolling 3 month blocks.

They don't actually compare month X with Month Y as they imply

hence sophistry at work

Turnbull2000

dweeby wrote: »

I'm shorter now than I was when I woke up, am I shrinking?

Anyway, what's you're hight got to do with house prices?

Well, falling house prices ain't no weight on my shoulders.

snkerrig

I’ve been an avid reader of this forum for a while with a vested interest (potential first time buyer scared of making first step on to the property ladder & falling straight down the negative equity snake). I found this video on youtube very interesting, it was posted on August 03, 2007, and recorded well before the credit crunch really took hold. There are some very perceptive predictions made which now seem to be taking place, like banks & investors getting burned in the US and therefore tightening lending policies here which will put the housing market in jeopardy.