House Price Crash Discussion Thread

Cissi

marginalone wrote: »

Ive been told that the market here will miss any big dip.

That's what the majority always believe - before the crash. I'm convinced there is no such a thing as a "100% safe" area.

In your situation (no family commitment!) I'd definitely keep renting for now. Your 100k should buy you more space in another couple of years' time (maybe sooner, who knows). In the meantime you should be able to get more for your money by renting, pound for pound (including deposit etc).

pamaris

marginalone wrote: »

Ideally, Im looking for a 1 bed flat at under £100k as I have no family commitments. I live in Glasgow and Ive been told that the market here will miss any big dip.

Again its the rent situation. Should I pay £600 pm rent or £600 pm mortgage?

As for whether to buy or rent, I personally would never buy a 1 BR flat. Most people want to start a family or a relationship at some point, and that flat will become too small in no time.

As for what you have been told, that "the market here will miss any big dip"... that is kind of funny, because on a night out one of the local neighborhood mummies resolutely told me, "Prices will fall, but they'll never fall in Urmston!" I am like right WTH is so special about Urmston! A large portion of people here in the UK think "Prices will fall but not in my area!"

tr3mor

marginalone wrote: »

Rough estimate I suppose there. But Id be a 100% FTB!

Seriously, carry on renting.

From what you've said it sounds like any potential crash would hit you much harder than most.

tr3mor

pamaris wrote: »

I am like right WTH is so special about Urmston!

There's lots of people who've bought there because they can't afford Chorlton or Sale at the moment?

pamaris

tr3mor wrote: »

There's lots of people who've bought there because they can't afford Chorlton or Sale at the moment?

Nah, the girl who said this grew up here. There are plenty of people who live here who are not aspirational about it, but this is their home turf. I don't get it at all. It's allright in the sense that the houses are OK (if you like 30's semi's; I don't) and it is relatively safe. But it is seriously not special considering the amount of last night's curries (those left uneaten and those regurgitated) and dog crap you have to dodge every morning. I am pretty sure that prices will fall in Urmston. Actually, I am pretty sure that they have been falling for several months.

Nenen

pamaris wrote: »

.... on a night out one of the local neighborhood mummies resolutely told me, "Prices will fall, but they'll never fall in Urmston!" I am like right WTH is so special about Urmston! A large portion of people here in the UK think "Prices will fall but not in my area!"

WOW! I thought it was only my local literati that *know* prices will never fall in Cambridge!

mystic_trev

Looks like the !!!!!! is really going to hit the fan in BTL land!

This surge in buy-to-let investors is set to come to a halt. If Paragon withdraws from the market, the number of cheap loans on offer will dwindle. Without the same availability of cheap financing and with confidence shaken by the debacles at Northern Rock and Paragon, buyer numbers are likely to shrink.

A drop in buyer numbers would hit house prices. If jitters in the market fuel a sharp rise in forced sellers, just as buyer numbers dwindle, the hit could evolve into a crash. Fears are already growing that this year’s sudden rise in the cost of borrowing is already pushing up the number of housing repossessions by lenders operating in both the prime and sub-prime markets.
Ray Boulger, head of technical services at Charcol, one of Britain’s largest independent mortgage brokers, told The Times he expected price falls of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent for flats in some regional cities over the coming six months.

So Ray, run that past me one more time........20% - 30% falls next year?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2910982.ece

mean_momma

Nenen wrote: »

WOW! I thought it was only my local literati that *know* prices will never fall in Cambridge!

According to Foxtons, prices will never fall where they are attempting to shift - shall we say 'ambitiously priced'- properties!

codger

The housing market cannot be allowed to fail just as Northern Rock cannot be allowed to fail (quoth an estate agent yesterday to a friend of ours.)

Er, um. . .

ivegotabig1

America v's Iran it seems to me is going to come to a head at some point in the not too distant future (nxt 2 yrs) !! With the distinct possibility of military Action of some kind..... Oil at 99$ a barrel will look cheap as & when the situation in the middle east is resolved..... Thus We will have high inflation & the most basic raw material of the western economy costing a fortune.....Result.... Huge Global recession !!
last year many economists would have laughed in your face at 99$ a barrel....!!! my thought for the day