House Price Crash Discussion Thread

hgllgh

Pobby wrote: »

Wow!Using that calculator if my house was to return to the price we purchased it for in 1998 that would be a 76% crash.Now that pretty much puts HPI in perspective for me.Madness!

it's not inconceivable... if US prices continue to head south regardless of the fed lowering interest rates it will look increasingly like the new Japan... they lowered interest rates but prices still declined by 60% over 15 years.... and, the UK is apparently 50% more over-valued than the US according to ABN Amro and other sources.... :eek:

wymondham

is it all going up, or down - nobody seems to be sure??!!! :rotfl:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7070432.stm

WTF?_2

pamaris wrote: »

ETA: No, normal people have not been getting 10% pay rises, but supposedly the boom has been supplemented by massive multimillion pound city bonuses, which are drying up now.

A lot of the shortfall in earnings has been made up by simply borrowing more.

If the banks are willing to lend someone on 25-30k a year 200 grand to buy a house then it doesn't matter whether wages are keeping pace with prices .... until of course the time comes for the borrower to pay back the debt.

And of course when banks tighten their criteria it leaves a lot of highly indebted people in a very sticky situation indeed as they can no longer sell their house for more than they bought it for. A double whammy.

dolce_vita

Wot?

No Crash Talk?

carolt

See very bearish Times today on new build flats here:

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article2781028.ece

and here:

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article2781067.ece

So they think new build will be where it goes first.

Some mind-blowing statistics:

Investors control about 70 per cent of the flats market, up from 40 per cent a few years ago...

Unsubstantiated reports suggest that up to 70 per cent of apartments in the centre of Leeds are empty. David Ireland, the chief executive of the Empty Homes Agency, dismisses this as lurid speculation, but his theory about empty flats is interesting. “One of the reasons why this has come about is because a lot of people are getting caught out buying off-plan in a flooded market,” he says. “They have ended up saddled with it because they couldn’t offload it before it was completed.” Savills estimates that in London as many as 50 per cent of new flats, which are concentrated in the regenerating East London area, are sold to investors who intend to sell on before completion or “flip” them.

Such figures indicate trouble ahead. Lee Dribben, the chairman of the Residential Landlords Association, believes that “buy-to-leave” is already over. “Where is the logic [of keeping a place to sell on as a virgin property] in relation to the current oversupply? You have all your oncosts, your insurance, to pay, and the fear that your capital investment might be going down. And no rent coming in. It’s over, definitely.”

Wow - you don't get much more of a pyramid scheme than that..... :eek:

Turnbull2000

Just how dull is this forum now. Well done mods :beer:

Nenen

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Just how dull is this forum now. Well done mods :beer:

I couldn't agree more... and the poll which clearly showed that more than 3/4 of those interested would appreciate a separate board has been studiously ignored too!

carolt

And from today's Sunday Times, more very bearish views:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/investment/article2799416.ece

Particularly moving is this bit:

Harry Dhaliwal at Belvoir Lettings in Manchester said: “I have landlords crying on the phone to me regularly. They are being forced to sell but because so many developments are still being built, they are struggling to find buyers.”

Very sad......

Nenen

carolt wrote: »

And from today's Sunday Times, more very bearish views:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/investment/article2799416.ece

Particularly moving is this bit:

Harry Dhaliwal at Belvoir Lettings in Manchester said: “I have landlords crying on the phone to me regularly. They are being forced to sell but because so many developments are still being built, they are struggling to find buyers.”

Very sad......

I know I should be far more charitible and understanding... the few btl LL I know are doing it for their pension and, in a free capitalist society, they are doing nothing more than most people... i.e. trying to get the most money they can for themselves and their families... however, i really can't help doing this....:j :j :j :j :j :j :j :j at that news!

IveSeenTheLight

And from today's Sunday Times, more very bearish views:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle2799416.ece

Particularly moving is this bit:

Harry Dhaliwal at Belvoir Lettings in Manchester said: “I have landlords crying on the phone to me regularly. They are being forced to sell but because so many developments are still being built, they are struggling to find buyers.”

Very sad......

It's amazing how people look at an article and only see the points they want to see.
Just to balance out the above quote, here is another quote from the same article

Don’t panic if you’re in it for the long term . . .
While landlords who have bought new-builds are undoubtedly feeling real pain, experts said the market as a whole remains stable. House prices are expected to slow and possibly stagnate for several years, but analysts are not expecting prices to fall through the floor.
Most landlords are sitting on significant equity because prices have risen so strongly in recent years, so even if values did fall back over the next few years, most would still make a profit.
Advisers recommend that investors who do not need to sell should sit out any property slow-down, especially as there could be a silver lining: rental demand is expected to go up as first-time buyers who are priced out of the market opt to rent instead.
Rents have risen by an average of 7% over the past 12 months, their strongest for 15 months, according to Paragon.