House Price Crash Discussion Thread

mystic_trev

yanex wrote: »

The interest rate cut was good to keep the market ticking over, however potentially bad for inflation.

What - like in the US you mean!? No amount of IR's will have any effect. If there's not enough money to go round then people can't borrow. We're in a 'Creidt crunch' if you hadn't noticed! I notice many borrowers are shutting up shop, even A&L have said they've only got enough funds until the end of the year!

beingjdc

Rents depends entirely on factors it is hard to predict. One would expect them to rise, but it's not clear where the money to pay them is coming from - they are already quite high, if not compared to prices. A lot of new build is sitting empty, and will need to be let in a hurry as prices fall.

The big question is what happens to recent immigrants. If they lose their jobs and move home in a recession, rents may not shift much at all.

adr0ck

what happens to first time buyers in a recession?

cheaper house prices... but no jobs = no home

gerad_way

Just wondered what peoples thoughts are about the area I live. A recent report said that nationally house prices have fallen by 0.3% however where I live they have risen by 0.4%. Would you still consider buying a property if you lived here?

beingjdc

Those are monthly figures. On small volumes a fraction of a percentage in a month tells you nothing.

gerad_way

Still hoping that the crash won't happen or if it does it isn't as bad as the one in the early 80's

Paul_N_4

adr0ck wrote: »

what happens to first time buyers in a recession?

cheaper house prices... but no jobs = no home

More like:

What happens to first time buyers in a recession?

cheaper house prices... might have no job = no home

as opposed to the current situation

expensive house prices... have job = no home

!!!!

brit1234

gerad_way wrote: »

Still hoping that the crash won't happen or if it does it isn't as bad as the one in the early 80's

:rotfl:

Can some one point out to gerad way that we are at a start of a credit crunch. Banks in the US have only started revealing there losses and there are more to come. Then there is the UK and European bank loses which have to be declared and to the best of my knowledge that has even started yet but I'm sure the focus will go on them soon enough.

This credit crunch is going to last years with Banks and other lenders running out of money. Paragon runs out this month with Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingly in a similar problem. They are likely to collapse shortly.

If you don't believe me just look at the short term high interest accounts being offered by the lenders, looking at them not passing on the last interest rate cute and quietly increasing it before the next one. Look at EGG canceling credit cards to all the users with good credit history. Look at all the banks wanting to have bank charges. The simple fact is that they are short of money and the problem is likely to get worse.

On top of that you have a property market 40-50% overvalue made up of a sizeable amount of IO and self cert mortgages. We have the same sub prime problem in the UK with the only difference being our property is even more overvalued than that of the US.

This will be bigger than the 80-90 crash because of both the credit crunch and the huge overvalue of properties.

Prices have no option to fall because people can't borrow enough to purchase at todays levels.:eek:

adr0ck

Paul_N wrote: »

More like:

What happens to first time buyers in a recession?

cheaper house prices... might have no job = no home

as opposed to the current situation

expensive house prices... have job = no home

!!!!

thats the thing even if there is a crash its still not going to help many FTB

Trollfever

This will be bigger than the 80-90 crash because of both the credit crunch and the huge overvalue of properties.

And there is the power on the internet to spread the news.