House Price Crash Discussion Thread

WTF?_2

adr0ck wrote: »

i didn't

i would love to know how you managed the cognitive jump from

a lot of people selling overpriced houses right now are greedy

from

builders like a lot of other people are greedy scum

:rolleyes:

You're the one who made the jump.

Nelly (post #1042)
"builders like a lot of other people are greedy scum and over the last few years have got away with it"

You, replying to that comment - you quoted it in your reply (post #1055)
"i take it that you mean everyone who is in business is greedy scum then?

Including Martin Lewis"

I'd really like to know how you extrapolated her comments about a greedy seller into being a commentary on anyone in business.


Now I know it makes it a lot easier to argue against other people if you just put words into their mouths but unfortunately (for you) you can't just do that without coming over like a complete twit and getting called on it.

brit1234

13thearl wrote: »

There is no housing shortage in this country. There has been an excessive amount of people chasing properties for sale, mostly due to people buying to let, ie an investment. Now that this is no longer a good investment, and those people will be taking profits, ie selling up some of their portfolio, there will be more houses on the market. We could call this a housing glut, though the actual number of houses is much the same as it was 10 years ago. In fact there actually are more homes now.

So true. Of course there is going to be a shortage of affordable property if all the cheaper homes and each newbuild are bought by investors with their tax advantages over first time buyers. The credit crunch will rectify this as many investors are extremely vulnerable to price reductions as they have already spent that equity on other properties. Once you lose one the whole portfolio starts collapsing.

Buy to let investors often forget to diversifying into other assets or commodities to reduce the risk in downturns, very risky.

nelly_2

!!!!!!? wrote: »

You're the one who made the jump.

Nelly (post #1042)
"builders like a lot of other people are greedy scum and over the last few years have got away with it"

You, replying to that comment - you quoted it in your reply (post #1055)
"i take it that you mean everyone who is in business is greedy scum then?

Including Martin Lewis"

I'd really like to know how you extrapolated her comments about a greedy seller into being a commentary on anyone in business.


Now I know it makes it a lot easier to argue against other people if you just put words into their mouths but unfortunately (for you) you can't just do that without coming over like a complete twit and getting called on it.

Exactly!

What goes on in the mind of someone, claiming I said something when its all there in balck and white that I didnt.

And then adding the martin lewis bit on too? !!!!!! was that all about???

If I wanted to slag martin off I bleeding well would do, but I dont and I dont know where Moron came up with it

oh and btw you spelt twit wrong

ATN

Nenen wrote: »

Out of interest (vested of course) please could you provide a source for that prediction ATN?

Nenen - Have a look at Capital Economics, they have been studying the housing market as long as anybody else and are widely respected.

Also, (not directed to Nenen) for anybody who doubts what their being told by any of the building soceties I'd suggest some well spent time reading the following

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/methodology.htm

If you want the opinion of quite literally thousands of Surveyor's view of house prices then I suggest we all start taking notice of what NBS and Halifax are telling us.

ATN

13thearl wrote: »

Advice to anyone thinking of buying property - WAIT. It will be alot cheaper by the end of the year.
Advise to anyone who has a second property as an investment - SELL IT ASAP.
The market is way overpriced.

Short and sweet. Also a fairly wise piece of advice. I myself will be saving hard and waiting for what is expected.

Generali

The City seems to be making its views about asset values pretty clear right now. The Fed cut rates by 0.75% and it's made little if any difference.

IMO virtually every asset class has had very high valuations applied for the past 3 years and they're almost all going to come back down, UK houses included.

I was on a conference call earlier today (listening nit speaking!) with one of the big US investment banks and they're very gloomy about the outlook for this year in all areas.

I guess we'll see in a few months time the proportion of BTLers that are in it for the long term and how many succome to the Fear side of Greed and Fear!

WTF?_2

Generali wrote: »

I guess we'll see in a few months time the proportion of BTLers that are in it for the long term and how many succome to the Fear side of Greed and Fear!

I predict that if the govt actually do reform GCT in April, as implied, then we'll see a flood of BTLers trying to shift their recently acquired properties to benefit from the new 18% CGT rate while they still have some equity in their asset to profit from.

That will have a pretty marked impact on prices.

Generali

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I predict that if the govt actually do reform GCT in April, as implied, then we'll see a flood of BTLers trying to shift their recently acquired properties to benefit from the new 18% CGT rate while they still have some equity in their asset to profit from.

That will have a pretty marked impact on prices.

Maybe, we'll see. As I think I've said before, BTL is the great imponderable of the housing market this time around.

My feeling is that impending recession will force a lot of BTLers hands; for those subsidising the rents it's going to be tough to do if they don't have a job any more/the overtime has gone.

After that? Maybe buyers with more cash will jump in, if you're trying to buy on a 50% mortgage and the rent easily covers the mortgage then you'll find a lender in almost any market conditions. Maybe BTL owners will decide that it's a good time to take their profits, after all you don't make a capital gain until you sell, maybe they won't.

WTF?_2

chappers wrote: »

In my opinion short fixed deals are just a way of making brokers more commission, many times the fees outweigh the benefits over such a small time.

Absolutely - I looked at a few products once and as far as I could see, stuff like fees and the fact that everything was front end loaded effectively meant that you were making next to no progress in capital repayment in the 2-year intro period.

The 2 year fixed period seemed to serve as little more than an extended induction lesson into the fact that you had to make mortgage payments every month.

If you could get a good 10-year (or longer) fix though, that would be another matter.

codger

adr0ck wrote: »

whats a realistic price?

what are you comparing it to?

yes small builders usually are in hock to the bank (how else would they afford to build?).................but to say its the bank who dictates when and for how much they sell is complete twaddle..................that would be the market...........the house market and/or the rental market

adr0ck:

I don't know which roof of which house fell on your head today but you'd be better off lying down in a dark room until the soreness goes away.

As I don't regard the poster to whom I addressed my remark about "realistic price" as a moron, I didn't (and still don't) feel it necessary to expand on that comment.

If you have a problem separating reality from unreality in property values, then a thread about house prices may not be the easiest for you to follow.

Certainly, you're not properly following my post: I didn't say, as you contend, that builders are in hock to the bank. I did say that builders are frequently so far in hock to the bank that. . . Etc etc.

If you wish to contend that, at that stage, a bank has no say in the selling decision, and no influence on the price that must be set so as to achieve as fast a realisation of an asset as possible, then it's not only the reality of house pricing you need to read up on: it's the reality of every bank's self-protective behaviour, too.

The "twaddle" you cite is of your own making, and is of as much use to this thread as the selective editing of other's posts for the purposes of adolescent point-scoring.

Perhaps when your head is better you'll have calmed down a bit.