Nationwide up 0.6%

triathlon

Up 0.6% and back over 3% year on year:)

Even I thought we might level off for the first part of 2018, this is why I am fighingt to convince people that prices are affordable because of the simple fact people are willing to pay for the new highs, not rocket science.

chucknorris

More importantly the annual rise is 3.2%. Here is a link: https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2018/Jan_2018.pdf

Although London is having a tougher time, but the outlook is not too bad:

http://www.cityam.com/279691/sorry-homeowners-london-now-officially-buyers-market

We are forecasting that prices in London only increase by a net figure of seven per cent over the next five years, whereas in the UK we think it is going to be twice that figure, at 14.2 per cent, he told City A.M.

I would certainly take 7% over the next 5 years, at which point I will have sold another 2 investment properties, I'm happy with the gains that I have made and I'll settle for banking those.

westernpromise

7% over five years sounds like a real-terms decline. What a pity for net buyers that punitive stamp duty means the actual cost of buying will still be higher.

Badegg

westernpromise wrote: »

7% over five years sounds like a real-terms decline. What a pity for net buyers that punitive stamp duty means the actual cost of buying will still be higher.

but for those who simply want to buy a long term residential property....its still better to buy now essentially. the "decline" in price would only be a positive gain for them if they invested in other assets which out performed and then provided them with a bigger deposit / if their increased salary in 5 years allowed for bigger mortgage?

im really keen to buy soon but at same time loath the idea of prices crashing and parents constantly going "told you so, why didnt you just continue living rent free with us?" (yes, opposite of english parents and WANT kids to stay with them forever :rotfl:)

westernpromise

If you hold off buying in fear of prices crashing, you'll never buy. We have a regular on this board who has been thinking this way since 1996. In the 22 years he's been waiting for house prices to crash, they have actually quadrupled. He now needs prices to fall by 130% in order for his decision to sell up and wait for a crash in 1996 to pay off. Crashes of more than 100% are, of course, fairly unusual.

Waiting for a crash is property speculation, pure and simple. It's just being a spec short rather than a spec long.

Badegg

westernpromise wrote: »

If you hold off buying in fear of prices crashing, you'll never buy. We have a regular on this board who has been thinking this way since 1996. In the 22 years he's been waiting for house prices to crash, they have actually quadrupled. He now needs prices to fall by 130% in order for his decision to sell up and wait for a crash in 1996 to pay off. Crashes of more than 100% are, of course, fairly unusual.

Waiting for a crash is property speculation, pure and simple. It's just being a spec short rather than a spec long.

yeah thats my fear too. my salary could rise at 3-5% a year but if house prices only rise 2-3% im not sure thats a tread id rather do in 5 years. tbh im not hoping / expecting a 50% crash. more like 5-10% probably. lots of houses i see are already on the market for ~9 months + and reduced 10-15%. Just seems like they could do with another 5-10%. could always put in the cheeky offer and see what happens i guess.

and yes! i already recognise Crashy Times posts without having to check username!

Malthusian

Badegg wrote: »

im really keen to buy soon but at same time loath the idea of prices crashing and parents constantly going "told you so, why didnt you just continue living rent free with us?"

As you'll have moved out and won't have to listen to such silliness, what does it matter?

You could point out that as you bought the property to live in and have no intention of selling it, and if you did it would only be to buy another house which has also crashed in value, the crash in prices is irrelevant to you. Or you could just put the phone down.

If you own your own home and the only reason you would sell it is to move, you would want house prices to crash. Firstly, when people change houses, up until retirement age it's usually for a bigger and more expensive one. This means that house price crashes are good for you as it narrows the gap. If you own a house worth £250k and you want to move to one worth £500k, you have to find £250k from your own resources or a mortgage lender. If both your houses crash by 50% you now only have to find £125k from your own resources.

Secondly, a crash in house prices means you pay less stamp duty. So even if you wanted to move from a £250k home to another £250k home, a general 50% crash is good for you as you are now in exactly the same position only you don't have to pay £2,500 in stamp duty.

Of course it is not quite as simple as that. In reality, if house prices crashed, you probably wouldn't be able to move as the guy with the £500k house wouldn't sell until prices recovered. However, it illustrates that the potential for a house price crash has absolutely no relevance to the decision to buy a home to live in. Only on buying a house as an investment.

Only people who may want to downsize (which is very few of them) and people who own property as an investment need to fear house price crashes.

Badegg

westernpromise wrote: »

If you hold off buying in fear of prices crashing, you'll never buy. We have a regular on this board who has been thinking this way since 1996. In the 22 years he's been waiting for house prices to crash, they have actually quadrupled. He now needs prices to fall by 130% in order for his decision to sell up and wait for a crash in 1996 to pay off. Crashes of more than 100% are, of course, fairly unusual.

Waiting for a crash is property speculation, pure and simple. It's just being a spec short rather than a spec long.

Malthusian wrote: »

As you'll have moved out and won't have to listen to such silliness, what does it matter?

You could point out that as you bought the property to live in and have no intention of selling it, and if you did it would only be to buy another house which has also crashed in value, the crash in prices is irrelevant to you. Or you could just put the phone down.

If you own your own home and the only reason you would sell it is to move, you would want house prices to crash. Firstly, when people change houses, up until retirement age it's usually for a bigger and more expensive one. This means that house price crashes are good for you as it narrows the gap. If you own a house worth £250k and you want to move to one worth £500k, you have to find £250k from your own resources or a mortgage lender. If both your houses crash by 50% you now only have to find £125k from your own resources.

Secondly, a crash in house prices means you pay less stamp duty. So even if you wanted to move from a £250k home to another £250k home, a general 50% crash is good for you as you are now in exactly the same position only you don't have to pay £2,500 in stamp duty.

Of course it is not quite as simple as that. In reality, if house prices crashed, you probably wouldn't be able to move as the guy with the £500k house wouldn't sell until prices recovered. However, it illustrates that the potential for a house price crash has absolutely no relevance to the decision to buy a home to live in. Only on buying a house as an investment.

Only people who may want to downsize (which is very few of them) and people who own property as an investment need to fear house price crashes.

well sad thing is is that if i move my parent will probably follow me and live in my apartment whilst renting out our old house :rotfl:

but good points. its like i tell my friend whos invested in crypto - you're only making a loss during a price crash if you sell!

tbh doubt we will be downsizing / selling. after i buy the apartment our family (between myself / parents) will own 2 flats & a house. after that ill focus on repaying the mortgage & diversifying into other investments. the flats will then probably eventually end up as something for my kids in future ideally.

_CC_

Badegg wrote: »

my salary could rise at 3-5% a year but if house prices only rise 2-3% im not sure thats a tread id rather do in 5 years.

A 5% pay rise on a £25,000 salary = £1,250

A 3% increase on a £200,000 house = £6,000

~5 x greater

Badegg

_CC_ wrote: »

A 5% pay rise on a £25,000 salary = £1,250

A 3% increase on a £200,000 house = £6,000

~5 x greater

and sadly unless there are multiple job movements (since thats what gets you the biggest increase) its more likely to be 2.5% increase in salary & 1-2% increase in house prices (in e.g. a stagnant london) so even worse.

katebl

triathlon wrote: »

Up 0.6% and back over 3% year on year:)

Even I thought we might level off for the first part of 2018, this is why I am fighingt to convince people that prices are affordable because of the simple fact people are willing to pay for the new highs, not rocket science.

Funny you and Greatape have the same personal crusade there... Both seriously unconvincing too