The 2018 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

BobQ

I would add

Polls show rising discontent over Brexit, as people realise the impact of Brexit with their aspirations for it not met and the realisation that their life may not be as they imagined.

There will be several resignations from the cabinet over the EU.

The Government will respond to public alarm over the underfunding of the NHS by investing more .


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michaels

BobQ wrote: »

I would add

Polls show rising discontent over Brexit, as people realise the impact of Brexit with their aspirations for it not met and the realisation that their life may not be as they imagined.

There will be several resignations from the cabinet over the EU.

The Government will respond to public alarm over the underfunding of the NHS by spending more .


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Fixed that for you

gfplux

Just wanted to join the thread.
As I live outside Britain I have no predictions but will enjoy watching what happens.
Oh Brexit, my one prediction.
yes that is a mess and will continue to embarrass Britain around the World.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

yes that is a mess and will continue to embarrass Britain around the World.

Trump has no competition for that crown. Nor is the wider world that concerned. As is a matter for the people.

michaels

Soon be time to mark this once the December data is out. The predictions are all pretty tightly clustered so there are unlikely to be any big winners or losers. That said I don't think anyone saw the big global slowdown that has started to hit in the second half of 2018.

vivatifosi

For the first time in ages didn't enter last year. Good luck to all who did. Goodness only knows what 2019 will have in store, we live in a crazy topsy turvy world.

michaels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Sorry this one is a bit late, but still in January!

Once again the big issue for this year, and the next few years, will be Brexit, nothing else of any real importance will get done.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will stagnate. Indices will range from -1 to +3%.
1.3% Halifax, 0.5% Nationwide
2. FTB numbers will stagnate or fall due to Brexit induced job market uncertainty and disposable income being squeezed by inflation.
?? Anyone have a source
3. Inflation will temper but remain above target, because of the ongoing effects caused by Brexitary GBP devaluation - I expect a range between 2% and 3% for most of the year.
CPI 3% Jan 18 down to 2.1% Dec 18
4. The picture for real terms wage growth remains gloomy thanks to inflation, and unemployment is already at record lows so can't fall much further. Best guess is a slight rise in unemployment and slight falls in real terms wages.
Unemployment 4.4% falling to 4%, Real Wages growth up to 1.3% from zero
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%.
0.75 and future path less strong given growth (subject possibly to a Brexit in name only 'dividend'
6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. You could make this prediction safely every year (and I do) but nothing will change until we have radical changes to planning regulations, developer funding, and mortgage regulations.
Q4 Data not yet available
7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.
Annual increase 1% down from 1.3% falling in real terms
8. The gap between London/SE and the rest of the UK will continue to close as it did in 2016 and 2017.
Rents UK Excl London up1.4%
9. Aberdeen house prices have broadly bottomed out, last year fall was under 2% (Halifax) rents will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year but also appear to be bottoming out now.
Down 2.6%
10. Economic growth in the UK will remain dismal, despite the EU and most of the World showing booming growth by comparison, with GDP under 2.0% for the year
1.4% and falling off a cliff - like the rest of Europe
Brexit:

11. Brexit is a mess, and will continue to be a mess this year.
No Sh*t Sherlock
12. Govt will continue to fudge decisions and kick the really hard choices into the long grass, while trying to appease the Tory Brexiteers with spin and bluster, but keeping the UK as close to the EU as possible so as not to cause a bust right before the next election.
Sort of, govt could probably get a Norway bino through parliament but aiming for something a little harder to avoid splitting the party
13. It is impossible to square the circle of conflicting priorities and contradictions, open Ireland border/closed other borders, regulatory convergence in NI but divergence for UK, friction free trade but leaving the very mechanism that makes such trade possible. And it's certainly impossible to do it in 18 months. So it won't be done this year.
Yup
14. The likely outcome is a transition deal with no long term deal agreed, this will be spun as an agreed 'framework' for a long term deal.
Yup but even that can't be agreed
Outliers:

Take your pick but any of the following could blow up at any time...

15. Korea - Little Rocket Man and Tiny Hands Trump are as mad as each other - Hopefully they both have a nanny in place to prevent accidental button pushing.
In theory this has been a big 'win' for peace but all mouth and no trousers when it comes to the 'implementation'
16. South China Sea - this hasn't hit the news as much lately but Chinese territorial aggression will not be tolerated indefinitely - there's a lot of military aircraft and vessels in a tense part of the world with a high potential for accidents....
Rumbles on - I am a bit worried that if the US succeeds in humbling China over trade due to Chinese economic weakness they will find it a very bitter pill to swallow and take out their frustrations in other spheres
17. Russia - Russia continues to flex it's muscles and the democracy tampering/sanctions issues aren't going away - when cornered Putin tends to act militarily with an illegal land grab and proxy war somewhere... (see Ukraine for details)
No change there with numerous provocations, oil price has not been too bad for Russia and therefore wealth of those who matter
And finally....

18. Trumpeachment. Well, we can live in hope anyway, but probably won't get that lucky. Besides, I'm not sure Pence is much of an improvement....;)
Amazingly still rumbles on - you sort of suspect if there were a smoking gun then it would have been found by now. Dems went much to far to the left in midterms and allowed Trump to energise his core and do a lot better than many had predicted
Anyway, it's all just a bit of fun, list your predictions below....

Initial results inline

michaels

FTB (with mortgage) up 1.9% to 370k

Real wages up 3.4% in year to December cf CPI 2.1% so real increase 1.3% I think that is plus 1 point for me.