Number I344

triathlon

That's the number of sure fire certainties that that were going to kick start the housing crash on HPC.com

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

It is now the "fall in mortgage approvals" and " some bloke they over heard on the Tube in London"

sevenhills

triathlon wrote: »

That's the number of sure fire certainties that that were going to kick start the housing crash on HPC.com

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

It is now the "fall in mortgage approvals" and " some bloke they over heard on the Tube in London"

But how does that compare to previous months/years?

triathlon

sevenhills wrote: »

But how does that compare to previous months/years?

I do not get you?

The point I am making is that site started over 15 years ago because I few people believed wrongly at the time that the housing market was over heating due to un controlled and excessive debt. When years flew by and they were seen to be quite clearly wrong everything else was seen as a certainty of cause the inevitable property crash, from governments ending, bird flu, Greek influences to Brexit, every time wrong.

The only real crisis was that a load of very poorly paid, mostly weak men who are destined to be ruled by alpha males came across a delusional website where they could all support and hold each others hands as they paid my rent :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Graham_Devon

triathlon wrote: »

I do not get you?

The point I am making is that site started over 15 years ago because I few people believed wrongly at the time that the housing market was over heating due to un controlled and excessive debt. When years flew by and they were seen to be quite clearly wrong everything else was seen as a certainty of cause the inevitable property crash, from governments ending, bird flu, Greek influences to Brexit, every time wrong.

The only real crisis was that a load of very poorly paid, mostly weak men who are destined to be ruled by alpha males came across a delusional website where they could all support and hold each others hands as they paid my rent :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Inbetween the time the time the site started and the present, there WAS a price crash.

So were they not right? It's recovered, sure, but that doesn't mean we didn't have a house price crash, because we did, allbeit minor compared to that of previous crashes.

Or are we ignoring that fact? If so, just let me know.

triathlon

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Inbetween the time the time the site started and the present, there WAS a price crash.

So were they not right? It's recovered, sure, but that doesn't mean we didn't have a house price crash, because we did, allbeit minor compared to that of previous crashes.

Or are we ignoring that fact? If so, just let me know.

I witnessed a blip, not sure what you saw. And I expect more of them before I sell up, if I do sell up. If people think property is gold right now they could well be in for a shock in the medium and long term when it will go platinum.

UK population is not going to shrink, Brexit or no Brexit

Graham_Devon

triathlon wrote: »

I witnessed a blip, not sure what you saw. And I expect more of them before I sell up, if I do sell up. If people think property is gold right now they could well be in for a shock in the medium and long term when it will go platinum.

UK population is not going to shrink, Brexit or no Brexit

According to Halifax, house prices fell 15.9% in 2008.

That's not what I'd class as a "blip". But hey ho.

AnotherJoe

I would say the house i bought in 2007 for £200k fell to an (estimated) £150k by 2010. So maybe a 25% drop. That may or may not equate to the emotive word "crash" depends on your personal definition.

It did hwoever rise back to £250k, when i sold in in 2014 or so, and I'd guess its now £325-£350k region.

When you say because

a few people believed wrongly at the time that the housing market was over heating due to un controlled and excessive debt.

Id say they didn't believe that wrongly, they were right, it was overheated.

What they were and have been consistently wrong about is that after being "overheated" it would cool down again, eg they would come back to the long term historical average of say 3x earnings. None of them realised that this was an underpin that would remain and took advantage of the "uncontrolled credit" to make money. (or i suppose, the ones that did, dont post on those forums any more )

Personally I dont see how they can rise much more relative to earnings because we seem to be at the limits. This is of course in the overpriced SE. Its not the same in other areas by a long way.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

According to Halifax, house prices fell 15.9% in 2008.

That's not what I'd class as a "blip". But hey ho.

They did fall quite a bit but soon recovered, but did people waiting for crash buy then or hang on in the hope they would fall further.

ukcarper

AnotherJoe wrote: »

I would say the house i bought in 2007 for £200k fell to an (estimated) £150k by 2010. So maybe a 25% drop. That may or may not equate to the emotive word "crash" depends on your personal definition.

It did hwoever rise back to £250k, when i sold in in 2014 or so, and I'd guess its now £325-£350k region.

When you say because Id say they didn't believe that wrongly, they were right, it was overheated.

What they were and have been consistently wrong about is that after being "overheated" it would cool down again, eg they would come back to the long term historical average of say 3x earnings. None of them realised that this was an underpin that would remain and took advantage of the "uncontrolled credit" to make money. (or i suppose, the ones that did, dont post on those forums any more )

Personally I dont see how they can rise much more relative to earnings because we seem to be at the limits. This is of course in the overpriced SE. Its not the same in other areas by a long way.

That’s the misconception they have never been 3x average incomes according to nationwide long term average in 4.3 (admittedly that’s been boosted by recent highs prices) and is 6x now and nationwide figures are not based on average of all employees.

triathlon

Graham_Devon wrote: »

According to Halifax, house prices fell 15.9% in 2008.

That's not what I'd class as a "blip". But hey ho.

And depending where you lived, but regardless if an asset has gone up 175% you are not really looking at the big picture if you see a fall of 15% as anything but a blip, and even more so if it went on to bigger and better things.

antrobus

ukcarper wrote: »

That’s the misconception they have never been 3x average incomes according to nationwide long term average in 4.3 (admittedly that’s been boosted by recent highs prices) and is 6x now and nationwide figures are not based on average of all employees.

It's a misconception based on the fact that for a long time, standard mortgage advances were based on 3 x salary (plus 1 x lower salary, if you were a couple). At lease that's what it was in 1988.