UK Q3 2017 GDP Preliminary Estimate +0.4%

kingjohn

so no point holding off buying foreign currently for the time being?

Thrugelmir

lisyloo wrote: »

Don't some young/fit/single migrants come here purely to make money (live frugally) for a few years and then go home to live like a king? (I appreciate the fall in sterling hasn't helped this group).

Has been the case previously. Much in the same way that people work in the Middle East for tax free income. Save the money and come home. Set up for life.

chucknorris

michaels wrote: »

Markets will price in expected changes. An increase this month is certainly odds on favourite so there will be little impact from the actual rate change. However the split of the vote (9-0 or 5-4) may have an impact as will the minutes which will likely cover discussion of when further tightening will be required.

On betfair the betting is curently about:

1/3 - 0.5%
3/1 - 0.25%
100/1 - 0.75%

mayonnaise

chucknorris wrote: »

On betfair the betting is curently about:

1/3 - 0.5%
3/1 - 0.25%
100/1 - 0.75%

Put me down for a tenner on rates remaining at 0.25%.

- retail sales plunging
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail/uk-retail-sales-plunge-at-fastest-rate-since-2009-cbi-idUKKBN1CV19U
- car production falling off a cliff
http://www.news18.com/news/auto/uk-car-production-falls-in-september-again-1558297.html
- real wages falling
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/18/real-wages-fall-despite-low-levels-of-unemployment
- retailers cutting jobs at a pace not seen since the GFC
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-at-fastest-rate-since-2008-brc-idUKKBN1CU3A5
- construction already in recession
http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2017/10/25/construction-slips-into-technical-recession/

Hardly the environment for a rate rise. IMO.

chucknorris

mayonnaise wrote: »

Put me down for a tenner on rates remaining at 0.25%.

- retail sales plunging
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail/uk-retail-sales-plunge-at-fastest-rate-since-2009-cbi-idUKKBN1CV19U
- car production falling off a cliff
http://www.news18.com/news/auto/uk-car-production-falls-in-september-again-1558297.html
- real wages falling
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/18/real-wages-fall-despite-low-levels-of-unemployment
- retailers cutting jobs at a pace not seen since the GFC
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-retail/uk-retailers-cut-jobs-at-fastest-rate-since-2008-brc-idUKKBN1CU3A5
- construction already in recession
http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2017/10/25/construction-slips-into-technical-recession/

Hardly the environment for a rate rise. IMO.

I should have added that there isn't much liquidity in that market, if someone placed just a £1,000 bet, it would skew the prices, although it might also attract more money going the other way too of course.

I see it as a non event really, I think that we are still some time away from the base rate going above 2%. By that time I will probably actually want rates to rise.

Malthusian

kingjohn wrote: »

so no point holding off buying foreign currently for the time being?

Not if you're about to go on holiday, no.

Filo25

There is also a case to be made that we have actually seen monetary policy loosening even further over the last year with increasing inflation leading to even higher negative real interest rates and a 0.25% increase would only be reducing part of that increase.