London prices falling 1% a month for the last 6 months

hettyGreek

Looking at zoopla the flats in my area of Wandsworth have fallen about 6% in the last 6 months. Making them worth about summer 2015 prices.

It does seem like London is falling quickly both in rent and valuations.

westernpromise

I'm not sure how you can deduce that reliably from Zoopla. It works from actual sold prices but necessarily in arrears, so if as a result it marks down one flat in a building it will mark them all down. I think it is the day to day opacity of values that makes people overconfident of their ability to understand price trends. With the FTSE you can see what it's doing in real time whereas with property there are just a handful of transactions and you only see what they were 3 months ago.

Zoopla randomly revalues my place in W9 between £950k and £1050k just over the last year or so, with no obvious direction. With that said, my sense is that selling prices are softening. Rents I don't know, I only let one property and I let it to professionals on 6 figure salaries so my sole data point is reflective of the desirability of the flat and the solvency of the top 1% of earners more than of the market in general.

Windofchange

I'm a Wandsworth resident too and watch the local area frequently. Lots of reductions, lot's of things sitting around. Been watching a new studio that was completed a few months back up the top of my road. 300k, then reduced to 275k, now down to 250k and still not sold in the month and a bit since it hit that point. A new 4 bed house is being completed shortly pretty much outside my window. Sold for a little over a million at auction and it was a shell. Professional builders have been at it over the summer and it is looking about ready. Will be interesting to see what it goes for, if it does at all.

Far less anecdotally, there are plenty of reports and graphs pointing to London prices falling, especially at the top end of the market. Lots of estate agent flyers through my door each week saying now is an ideal time to sell, let us give you a valuation etc etc. I don't think there is panic yet, but there is certainly mild concern.

kinger101

Zoopla smoopla.

chucknorris

ilovehouses wrote: »

London down 6% in 6 months? Seems unlikely - I reckon a nuclear bomb could fall on London followed by an outbreak of the Black Death and I reckon you lot would still be bidding up your house prices.

I've got 3 flats in Wandsworth (Battersea), it was 4, but I sold one earlier this year. It went on the market last November for £475k. I valued it at £460k, and that included spending £10k, all the agents advised me not to spend any money doing it up, so I didn't, which made my valuation £450k. I was hesitant about asking for £475k (as they advised), but I thought I would start there and see what happens, unluckily I got a time waster who offered £475k in the first week. After he disappeared, I reduced the price to £450k and accepted an offer of £440k in February, and completed in May. I would guess that it would probably go for about £435k now, I will probably sell my other 2 bed flat when the tenants give me notice (but they look like long term tenants). But the remaining 2 x 3 bed flats I want to keep a bit longer, as the yield is higher, and alternative investments are not as profitable.

theEnd

ilovehouses wrote: »

London down 6% in 6 months? Seems unlikely - I reckon a nuclear bomb could fall on London followed by an outbreak of the Black Death and I reckon you lot would still be bidding up your house prices.

Brexit could be worse than those options.

High end jobs already shifting away.
Number of new economic immigrants and graduates heading in has to be dropping.
Lots of new properties coming online.

hettyGreek

I agree brexit could easily be this nuclear reaction. Lots of jobs aren't being replaced when they end and companies are shifting people abroad and not opening new positions in London.

The 1% a month falls could be possible as there is alot coming on and reducing each day. We will see in a few months. But they were going up more than 1% a month for many years so could easily fall by just as much. Especially the ex local authority stuff that was selling 250k for a studio in a so so area.

wymondham

so with that kind of drop that'll be almost £3million for a bedsit now?

hettyGreek

And 2.97 million next month!

PollySouthend

Well there's only been two times in the last 20 years that house prices in London have seemed to start to fall, this being the second time after 2008.

Like with any asset it all depends on when you bought it, if you bought in Chelsea a year ago it's almost certainly lost money.

They could double within the nexr five years or half. Who knows, history would suggest the doubling but it's a time of firsts at the moment.

ukcarper

Looking at Land Registry most London boroughs are up since last year, Kensington and Chelsea being an exception.