Janet Yellen pulls trigger to reverse QE but we're now in uncharted waters

Crashy_Time

ilovehouses wrote: »

If bond yields can only rise, equities fall and property prices fall then you should bet the farm on those things happening.

I haven't got the foggiest so I'm content to buy a world tracker and let the world work for me while I sleep. Oh and I'm holding UK gilts to offset the risk - on timescales that match when I might want the money. Instead of being a hater of paying off the mortgage I've relented and started making regular overpayments (it hurts!) just to knock down the risk further.

Very good advice IMO, but what if equity markets tumble and don`t come back for a long time?

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes, strictly speaking I get the face value and don't necessarily pay this. It's not much of a difference.

One of the joys of admitting I don't have an edge is I don't care. I pay the correct price when I buy and the correct price when I sell.

Are gilts incorrectly priced above or below par? If I had an edge I'd know the answer, bet on it and be as rich as Croesus.

If you are paying above par then you'll suffer a capital loss on redemption. Yields to maturity are very low.

The-Joker

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If tech firms are dependent on silver. Then time to sell isn't it.

yes sell the tech firms and buy physical silver bullion

The-Joker

ilovehouses wrote: »

There are two parts to making money - firstly you need to have the edge that allows you to know the market is wrong. Then you need the edge to be able to predict when the market will start seeing things your way.

It's highly questionable that you possess the first edge and you absolutely don't have the second because you've been banging this drum for years.

Id rather be several years too early than one year too late
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9UW96sHpb0

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Panning for gold - implies a degree of luck is required.

Well the one certainty in life is uncertainty. Hard work is the only way for most people to achieve their goals. Few benefit from luck alone.

michaels

ilovehouses wrote: »

As you're currently at least a decade out on the timing you should consider whether you have the ability to call a crash with sufficient accuracy to put you in the money.

Ageeed

'the markets can remain irrational much longer than I can remain solvent'

'In the long run...we will all be dead.'

caronoel

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's impossible to be risk free. Diversified portfolio, some minimal risk assets, own your own house, hold some debt (not too much), don't spend everything you earn etc etc is the way forward IMO.

All good points.

Shame that Crashy sold his house 20 years ago, and has been waiting for the "crash" ever since.

By now he would have paid off most or all of his mortgage. Instead, he is a 50 something male stuck in a rented bed sit.

Karma