House prices

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

gazzabboi wrote: »

Of course, but I didnt expect an increase of so much. Im convinced that this help to buy scheme is what has done it. Nobody is any better off with it to be honest unless they sell.
eg £200k house bought using 20% help to buy.
£10k deposit £150k mortgage £40k loan

2 years on...
House valued £300k £140k mortgage remaining £60k help to buy. Ok so they now have £100k in the bank to buy something new, but their max mortgage is £150k. So now can afford a house of £250k. But obviously won't be half as good as the one they are moving out of, so it didn't really help them to buy.

Its about 5 years now from the first loan, and people will soon be either starting to pay interest on the loan or looking to move.

You've just gained a massive amount of money, if you can't afford to buy a house buy something else. Some people are never happy.

gazzabboi

Haven't gained anything still being unable to buy. Just in a better position than a ft buyer

padington

At least you didn't buy silver

HPC_Ghuol_Hunter

gazzabboi wrote: »

Haven't gained anything still being unable to buy. Just in a better position than a ft buyer

Well you are now on the ladder, so I think a little gratefulness wouldn't go amiss. I know that some of the HPC loons would literally kill to grab some of that HPI cash.

westernpromise

Windofchange wrote: »

It helps the older generations selling up, and the monied land owners who are the ones who have turned out to vote the past decade or two.

Well, except that sellers don't determine prices.They just live in their houses for a few decades then accept the highest credible bid. Searching questions need to be asked of the buyers who've bid indifferent properties through the roof.

Windofchange wrote: »

It will be trying to guess what will be the thing to shock the system and cause problems - PCP car loans, credit cards, housing, interest rate rises, the pound falling, inflation.

You make a good point. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. The property crash of the 70s was caused by runaway inflation and runaway interest rates, and meant that nominal prices went nowhere even as the price of everything else went up. The crash of the late 80s to early 90s was caused by rates that were first too low then too high. The crash of 2008 to 2011 was caused by the GFC and a lack of confidence but interest rates actually went down.

So it is hard to say what will cause the next shock. PCP is a good one but another is this diesel scandal, IMO. Apparently the biggest buyers of dodgy German diesels today are the car hire agencies, and they buy them using money borrowed from the same car makers. It's not hard to envisage a situation where the used diesels are worth scrappage and thus Sixt can't sell their used fleet for enough money to repay VW. For this Sixt would with some justice blame VW. So VW can't get its money back and can't sell any new cars either, which could turn very nasty.

westernpromise

HPC_Ghuol_Hunter wrote: »

Well you are now on the ladder, so I think a little gratefulness wouldn't go amiss. I know that some of the HPC loons would literally kill to grab some of that HPI cash.

Which they'd then lose on gold and bitcoins.

If you want to know who'll own property after the next crash, look at who owned it before.

gycraig_2

Your house value has gone up 75k meaning you owe more equity to the company that enabled you to get the house in the first place and you feel hard done to ?.

If you hadn't bought and had saved for longer you would of had to pay today's prices.

dannyrst

westernpromise wrote: »

Well, except that sellers don't determine prices.They just live in their houses for a few decades then accept the highest credible bid. Searching questions need to be asked of the buyers who've bid indifferent properties through the roof.



You make a good point. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. The property crash of the 70s was caused by runaway inflation and runaway interest rates, and meant that nominal prices went nowhere even as the price of everything else went up. The crash of the late 80s to early 90s was caused by rates that were first too low then too high. The crash of 2008 to 2011 was caused by the GFC and a lack of confidence but interest rates actually went down.

So it is hard to say what will cause the next shock. PCP is a good one but another is this diesel scandal, IMO. Apparently the biggest buyers of dodgy German diesels today are the car hire agencies, and they buy them using money borrowed from the same car makers. It's not hard to envisage a situation where the used diesels are worth scrappage and thus Sixt can't sell their used fleet for enough money to repay VW. For this Sixt would with some justice blame VW. So VW can't get its money back and can't sell any new cars either, which could turn very nasty.

The government aren't going to just wake up and ban all Diesel cars/vans etc though are they. They'll ban the sale of new Diesel cars and allow the existing ones to exit the market via natural life cycle. They might be slightly less desirable and therefore cheaper, but I doubt by much given all the people who are so cynical about electric cars.

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

Which they'd then lose on gold and bitcoins.

If you want to know who'll own property after the next crash, look at who owned it before.

The banks?

Malthusian

Government helps guy who can afford a house worth £160k (£10k deposit and £150k mortgage) to live in a house worth £200k. Three years later, after putting in 160k including mortgage, his share is worth £216k, and he is living in a house worth £270k. From putting in £10k plus three years' mortgage repayments from his own pocket, he now has £76k net of the mortgage. As a result he is hacked off.

You could not ask for clearer proof that all politics is a total waste of time. People are never happy. Not as a result of anything you do for them unsolicited using other people's money, anyway.

OP - just sell and be a renter again. Then you will be in the same position you would be if the Government had never come up with Help To Buy, but with your share of the house price growth in your pocket.