London supply exceeds demand, number leaving 80%

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Isn`t it just a case of contracts have been signed and the developers will continue to build until they go bust? Mothballing projects will only bring on the much needed crash sooner by affecting sentiment? (This is good for ordinary people but bad for developers)

With London continuing to grow at 100,000 a year we need some 40,000 additional properties per year for them

The build rate over the next 10 years is unlikely to meet this annualised 40,000 units

Londoners have two options. Either let prices ration houses or go on a massive expansion of the capital. Letting price ration property has been the method for the last 20 years and I don't see that changing over the next 20 years

If London increased its build rate to 100,000 properties per year the main impact would not be lower prices the main impact would be fewer people leaving and more people coming. So instead of the population growing at 100,000 per year it would grow at 250,000 per year.

Crashy_Time

GreatApe wrote: »

With London continuing to grow at 100,000 a year we need some 40,000 additional properties per year for them

The build rate over the next 10 years is unlikely to meet this annualised 40,000 units

Londoners have two options. Either let prices ration houses or go on a massive expansion of the capital. Letting price ration property has been the method for the last 20 years and I don't see that changing over the next 20 years

If London increased its build rate to 100,000 properties per year the main impact would not be lower prices the main impact would be fewer people leaving and more people coming. So instead of the population growing at 100,000 per year it would grow at 250,000 per year.

Why can`t developers shift houses then?

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why can`t developers shift houses then?

How do you know that is the case?

Berkeley group perhaps Londons biggest developer announced its accounts for April 2017

Revenue (sales) highest ever. Profit highest ever. Share price now highest ever

Conrad

GreatApe wrote: »

Its dam expensive building property in London primarily because of additional government burdens

The problem is people don't do joined-up thinking.


They praise Mayor Khans emissions charges and so on, but then moan at new home prices which of course required truckloads of concrete and kit to be delivered from outside.


Also they think it's jolly nice to buy property in Cornwall, Norfolk or Spain and in certain places price-out locals. (Media has been reporting on Spanish protest about just this).

Crashy_Time

GreatApe wrote: »

How do you know that is the case?

Berkeley group perhaps Londons biggest developer announced its accounts for April 2017

Revenue (sales) highest ever. Profit highest ever. Share price now highest ever

Everything fixed then, great! Keeping piling into the lifetime debt folks, everything is A-Ok!

Conrad

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why can`t developers shift houses then?

Buy to let has dried up due to tax hikes and mortgage affordability rules tightened due to same tax hike cost increases.


Even Galliard Homes, the investors developer, has suddenly started pitching its adds at residential buyers. I did say this would happen a while back as the new rules fed through.


It will mean fast rising rents quite soon


Quite a few investors I know are switching to commercial property


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/buy-to-let-dead-say-landlords-start-buying-shops-instead/

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Everything fixed then, great! Keeping piling into the lifetime debt folks, everything is A-Ok!

There wasn't and isn't much wrong with the UK housing markets

westernpromise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Everything fixed then, great! Keeping piling into the lifetime debt folks, everything is A-Ok!

It's not a lifetime of debt, Crashy, It ends after 25 years, unlike your rent, which is forever. Another £150,000 you still have to find to rent the very humble roof over your head for 30 more years. What a depressing thought that would be!

The-Joker

AG47 wrote: »

The number of people leaving London has jumped more than 80 per cent in the past five years, with more than 93,000 people departing the capital last year, figures have suggested.http://www.cityam.com/269004/exodus-number-people-moving-out-london-has-risen-80-per

And yet the building bubble shows no signs of abating

the number moving out of london are going up almost as fast as new properties being added to supply

who is going to live in all these new homes?

GreatApe

The-Joker wrote: »

the number moving out of london are going up almost as fast as new properties being added to supply

who is going to live in all these new homes?

there is no indication that the net figure is an outflow from London, if anything the most recent figures are +100,000 last year