UK Q1 2017 GDP Second Estimate +0.2% (Revised down 0.1% from Preliminary Estimate)

worldtraveller

Main points

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.2% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2017.

• UK GDP growth in Quarter 1 2017 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points from the preliminary estimate published on 28 April 2017; mainly due to broad-based downward revisions within the services sector.

• UK GDP growth slowed to 0.2% in Quarter 1 2017 as consumer facing industries such as retail and accommodation fell and household spending slowed. This was partly due to rising prices. Construction and manufacturing also showed little growth, while business services & finance continued to grow strongly.

• GDP in current prices increased by 0.7% between Quarter 4 2016 and Quarter 1 2017.

• GDP per head in volume terms was flat between Quarter 4 2016 and Quarter 1 2017.

ONS

always_sunny

Don't say, can't be.

mayonnaise

No need to be gloomy, it's not all bad.

Q1/17 - QoQ
Germany +0.6%
Spain +0.8%
Czech Republic +1.3%
Romania +1.7%
Hungary +1.3%
etc..

Eurozone +0.5%

A_Medium_Size_Jock

It does seem that the first quarter is historically slower.
Look at a ten year (or longer) chart here:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annual

Whilst a continued low figure would indeed be a concern, current estimates remain generally positive and combined with the currently high FTSE100 & FTSE250 show clearly that the markets are not concerned.

michaels

Didn't we dicuss the 0.3%? Getting excited over a rounding error magnitude change at the first restatement seems a bit desperate even for remoaners....

A_Medium_Size_Jock

How reporting of GDP works:

To calculate the growth for the most recent month of the quarter, the ONS uses data from the monthly business survey, to which only 30 to 50 per cent of businesses have responded to at the time of the estimate.
Eight weeks after the end of the quarter, the ONS will release its second estimate for growth, which will include 83 per cent of the available data.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10201867/How-accurate-is-UK-GDP-data.html

GDP(O) revisions - Office for National Statistics

HornetSaver

michaels wrote: »

Didn't we dicuss the 0.3%? Getting excited over a rounding error magnitude change at the first restatement seems a bit desperate even for remoaners....

And using "Brexit... yeeeeeaaaaahhh" as a first retort to a debate of this nature seems a bit idiotic even for someone who probably had their keyboard reconfigured to put the 'x' in a more convenient place, given the frequency with which they type the word Brexit.

It shouldn't be any surprise at all that services are showing sluggish growth. Stagnation or low growth in services, offset by strong growth in the likes of manufacturing, construction and agriculture are precisely what was meant and intended by a rebalancing of our economy, indeed precisely what a majority of the country (including many who voted Remain) want.

The question is whether we are on course to achieve that goal, and where we stand if we don't. This question has nothing to do with whether or not you support Brexit - if anything your response suggests the getting in early of excuses before there is a reason to make excuses.

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

No need to be gloomy, it's not all bad.

Q1/17 - QoQ
Germany +0.6%
Spain +0.8%
Czech Republic +1.3%
Romania +1.7%
Hungary +1.3%
etc..

Eurozone +0.5%

When EU growth was so poor compare to the UKs, you did not blame it on EU membership. When it at long last rises to respectable numbers.............


One small dip and it's hysterics time again.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

How reporting of GDP works:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10201867/How-accurate-is-UK-GDP-data.html

GDP(O) revisions - Office for National Statistics

I always chuckle when these slight downward revisions in growth emerge getting the Remainers all excited, and then sure as eggs is eggs, the numbers are later revised up.


Lets stay in the EU where every single month was growth, milk and honey, yay!