Ownership amongst the young

GreatApe

There are important interactions in housing and the rise in single person and childless couple household numbers.

Just off the bat it makes sense people can afford to and do bid more for housing. A single person in 2017 can bid more for housing than a man with a family and 3 kids and wife not working looking after the kids. A childless couple both working full time can bid even more.

The reason people were able to buy housing a lot cheaper a generation ago is partly (perhaps mostly) to do with this. Life just cost more with kids to feed and cloth and only one income and of course necessities like food and cloths cost more in real terms so there was less to go towards bidding for rent or housing. This is why the crash wishers do not understand/believe it when the older generations say sure housing was a lot cheaper but we still struggled to afford them.

Thus comparing a man and wife + 3 kids with one income today vs the same a generation ago is an unfair comparison as the typical bidder for a house did not stay the same over 30 years.

westernpromise

Chrysalis wrote: »

1 - tons of home ownership type tv shows
2 - an apparent disaster if house prices drop
4 - politics always aimed at maintaining house prices
5 - rental laws favouring landlords

The fact that you numbered your points 1,2,4 and 5 also explains why home ownership is falling amongst young people. It is because many of them is fick.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Windofchange wrote: »

household wealth in the UK has become more concentrated since the turn of the century."

Yes of course it has.

Mortgage rationing only concentrates housing wealth in the hands of an ever richer percentage of the population.

Many of us have warned of this for years... It was always going to be the inevitable outcome of the daft new lending regulations.

It is patently absurd that banks can lend money for houses serviced by an income stream from a renter via a landlord intermediary, but cannot in many cases lend money to the renter directly.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

We have imported a lot of 25-34 year old migrants who are 75% likely to rent privately

People are staring life later, leaving school age 21-22 rather than 15-16 and getting married later or not at all thus everything is delayed from home ownership to marriage.

People are more mobile, probably due to the fact that many more go to university often in another town so they are more likely to feel able to go apply for work all over the country. The internet has probably also played a part in this, how did someone 30 years ago know there was a job opening for x in a town they had never heard of or been to?

Also rentals are better quality so more are able and willing to rent longer I know renters who can buy but are happy in high quality HMOs

Less jobs for life so people move around more than in the past. If you got a job age 15 in the local pits or steel mill then you could be quite sure that was your lot and could buy age 25 having worked and saved for 10 years. If like myself you had half a dozen jobs in your 20s all in different towns then you are less likely to buy and need to rent

etc etc


That explains a lot more than your idea which is simply that house prices are too high. An idea which fails to explain why ownership has fallen in even the cheapest towns of the cheapest regions.

Finally a reasoned answer. And yes, I can agree that people are putting off to later big life decisions such as purchasing a house, getting married etc. This will impact on what percentage of the young own a house.

However, the underlying fact remains that house prices are at record multiples of salary, and that this must also impact ownership. Take the top end of that age group; 30 - 34. That is not gap year young. That is the sort of time people are settling, starting families etc. The reason home ownership is falling in even the cheapest towns is a mix of the above and also that they are not cheap for the local population. I have already posted an article to this - off the top of my head it was 46 local authorities out of 400 ish where house prices were at 3 - 5 x salary. £100k is cheap to us, but for someone earning £15k a year it isn't.

I agree that falling home ownership is a far more complex issue than simply prices, but housing is not cheap and no amount of tables with 30 year mortgages and a couple both earning a male F/T salary will convince me otherwise.

chucknorris

Chrysalis wrote: »

you been locked in a closet for past 10 years?

look at house prices, even with low interest, homes are barely affordable for new buyers.

My dad brought our family home on his own income (mum not working) in 1970s for about a tenth of what he sold it for in 2001.

I don't consider 1,000% higher as being that much different in affordability between those dates, when you take into account and compare both the average mortgage and inflation rates between the 70's (although you could have been more precise in which year you were referring to) to 2001 and 2001 itself.

Chrysalis

economic wrote: »

they are unaffordable in part of the country like london but only to those who dont earn enough and/or save enough and dont receieve gifts/inheritances.

i fail to see any housing crisis whatsoever.

"only to those who..."

Well yeah a lot of people dont earn enough on a single income and most people are not fortunate enough to get gifts/inheritances.

So you seem to be saying its only the poor who cannot afford so its fine.

Chrysalis

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't consider 1,000% higher as being that much different in affordability between those dates, when you take into account and compare both the average mortgage and inflation rates between the 70's (although you could have been more precise in which year you were referring to) to 2001 and 2001 itself.

1978 so late 1970s

His income certainly did not rise by 1000%.

ukcarper

Chrysalis wrote: »

1978 so late 1970s

His income certainly did not rise by 1000%.

The house I bought in 1972 has increased in value by about 40x earnings in similar jobs has increased about 27x. This is in the south east in an area that hasn't changed that much, the property had no central heating ans single glassed Windows now they do.

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

We have imported a lot of 25-34 year old migrants who are 75% likely to rent privately

People are staring life later, leaving school age 21-22 rather than 15-16 and getting married later or not at all thus everything is delayed from home ownership to marriage.

People are more mobile, probably due to the fact that many more go to university often in another town so they are more likely to feel able to go apply for work all over the country. The internet has probably also played a part in this, how did someone 30 years ago know there was a job opening for x in a town they had never heard of or been to?

Also rentals are better quality so more are able and willing to rent longer I know renters who can buy but are happy in high quality HMOs

Less jobs for life so people move around more than in the past. If you got a job age 15 in the local pits or steel mill then you could be quite sure that was your lot and could buy age 25 having worked and saved for 10 years. If like myself you had half a dozen jobs in your 20s all in different towns then you are less likely to buy and need to rent

etc etc


That explains a lot more than your idea which is simply that house prices are too high. An idea which fails to explain why ownership has fallen in even the cheapest towns of the cheapest regions.

Although many of the points you make are valid, to deny that it is no harder to buy now than in the past is just as bad as those saying there are no parts of the country where property is affordable. I bought my first property near one of the peaks in the 70s a 3 bed terrace if I was in exactly the same position now even with the bigger mortgage I could now get I wouldn't be able to buy it,

Chrysalis

ukcarper wrote: »

The house I bought in 1972 has increased in value by about 40x earnings in similar jobs has increased about 27x. This is in the south east in an area that hasn't changed that much, the property had no central heating ans single glassed Windows now they do.

You mean "some" properties do.

I have single glazed windows.

I have visited various properties also that have no central heating. Of course central heating doesnt mean much if you cannot afford to use it.