Has the market peaked?

economic

ilovehouses wrote: »

The ugly truth for most investors our age (I'm a little younger) is they can't afford to take the risk but won't be able accumulate the funds they 'need' if they don't.

Whats ugly about it? People your age have time on your side to earn money through jobs/business etc.

Plus you will most likely benefit from the technological revolution that is occurring that may grow exponentially. You truly stand on shoulders of giants.

Filo25

ilovehouses wrote: »

It's ugly because savings rates are quite low. People talk about the young been most wealthy because they have so much human capital stored. All well and good but not if you spend close 00% of what you earn.



What like Uber who are shocked to discover a court thinks they're a taxi company?

I don't think its ridiculous to speculate that the long (loose money inspired) bull run in Equities, Bonds and Property is likely to depress returns in the medium term for most investment asset classes going forwards as well

GreatApe

Savings are too high people need to spend more and save less

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

Savings are too high people need to spend more and save less

There's nothing to spend money on. Technology has made things cheap and no one wants to give money away to a company.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

The marginal cost of technology (capital) is less then the marginal cost of humans (labour). So technology is surely the future to boost productivity right? Am i correct?

Well that but also importantly technology can be used to do things humans cant do so it isn't just one vs the other

If you take for instance a car company is it a manufacturing company or a tech company?
What about apple with its iphones tech or manufacturing?
I would say they are both tech companies.
Going forward they will both get more and more automated and at some stage there will be no one in the factories and it will all be design and software and at that point clearly everyone would class them a tech company.

We are actually quite close even today eg the Nisan plant in the midlands has something like 3,000 workers and produces nearly 600,000 cars. That is just 1 person per 300 cars produced that is very labor lite. It works out to just 10 hours human labor per car and that will go down further

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

There's nothing to spend money on. Technology has made things cheap and no one wants to give money away to a company.

???????????

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

???????????

Sorry i was feeling sick and light headed whilst typing that.

What i mean to say is that technology has driven the costs down on many things, we have lots of free fun stuff to do so where can we actually spend the disposable income?

No one wants to pay more then the actual price of a product.

Crashy_Time

economic wrote: »

You don't need to have an "edge" to allocate money. You do whatever allocation suits you. If you are young, its best to be overweight technology stocks as a hedge for your future (in case tech takes over your job). Whilst this seems like having an edge, it is not, you are merely allocating to suit your personal circumstances. If you are older, you would have more money in defensives, home currency and income based. This doesnt mean you have it all in this, its just that you have more of it then if you were 20 or 30.

Yes that`s right, just buy back into the London bubble, what could go wrong? If you think you can pick stocks, or even funds/sectors that will do well you must believe you have some knowledge other investors don`t have, otherwise you are just as well getting an online bookies account? I have just got back from London and there is even more new-build executive c*rap going up than ever, a lot of it in the shadow of the big banks headquarters for extra irony over-load :rotfl: My God that city is due a popping! The quality of life for most people is akin to a giant sized hamster cage, stop running and you go down. No doubt if you are rich you can live well, but the lives of the little people is best summed up by the state of Victoria coach station, pay 30p for a pee only to find that the toilet floors are running with the stuff for free! I think the only worse hovel of a toilet I can think of is Edinburgh Central library, where you can smell the p*iss from at least two floors above the toilet, God only knows what American/European visitors think of the ground floor view of our great capital cities....

economic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yes that`s right, just buy back into the London bubble, what could go wrong? If you think you can pick stocks, or even funds/sectors that will do well you must believe you have some knowledge other investors don`t have, otherwise you are just as well getting an online bookies account? I have just got back from London and there is even more new-build executive c*rap going up than ever, a lot of it in the shadow of the big banks headquarters for extra irony over-load :rotfl: My God that city is due a popping! The quality of life for most people is akin to a giant sized hamster cage, stop running and you go down. No doubt if you are rich you can live well, but the lives of the little people is best summed up by the state of Victoria coach station, pay 30p for a pee only to find that the toilet floors are running with the stuff for free! I think the only worse hovel of a toilet I can think of is Edinburgh Central library, where you can smell the p*iss from at least two floors above the toilet, God only knows what American/European visitors think of the ground floor view of our great capital cities....

I got to admit london property doesn’t look good as an investment but it’s not a bubble.

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yes that`s right, just buy back into the London bubble, what could go wrong? If you think you can pick stocks, or even funds/sectors that will do well you must believe you have some knowledge other investors don`t have, otherwise you are just as well getting an online bookies account? I have just got back from London and there is even more new-build executive c*rap going up than ever, a lot of it in the shadow of the big banks headquarters for extra irony over-load :rotfl: My God that city is due a popping! The quality of life for most people is akin to a giant sized hamster cage, stop running and you go down. No doubt if you are rich you can live well, but the lives of the little people is best summed up by the state of Victoria coach station, pay 30p for a pee only to find that the toilet floors are running with the stuff for free! I think the only worse hovel of a toilet I can think of is Edinburgh Central library, where you can smell the p*iss from at least two floors above the toilet, God only knows what American/European visitors think of the ground floor view of our great capital cities....

The housing stock is in London is worth only 3.91 x GDP of London
By comparison the average for the whole UK housing stock is 3.22 x UK GDP
and England is 3.45 x England GDP

That does not seem particularly extreme London housing is just 13% more expensive than England average and 20% more expensive than UK average.

So really anyone who thinks London is a bubble needs to think England as a whole is a bubble. That seems quite unlikely as large parts of England its easy to prove housing is not just affordable but very cheap so cheap a mortgage costs less than renting a social property