Has the market peaked?

economic

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The world is geared with debt. What goes up at some point will come down. Until the next time.

Or the world is awash with cash???

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The world is geared with debt. What goes up at some point will come down. Until the next time.

I don't need to time it correct for 1 billion years I only need to time it correct for 35 years

In 35 years I feel London will be a richer city with a higher population and even more generational wealth. All that tells me London property especially inner London property (both residential and commercial) will do well.

London is geared to global wealth like few other cities.
India will be a rich country in 35 years. In that country alone there will be 60 million households who are new millionaires. Some of them will want second homes and none of them will consider stoke on Trent but quite a few will consider London. Even if none of them make London their home they will have £100 trillion+ in wealth they need managing and London will see a portion of that pie

There is also an odd fact about London today. Its wealth attracts wealth. While people would assume that when prices go up Londoners will sell up and buy a house five times the size in stoke. Well the rich are looking at it the opposite way. If they have £10 million they want to live in a safe rich area with other rich people. I call it the st Albans effect. A town twice the price of its surroundings as people are willing to pay twice the price to live next to other rich people.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

Or the world is awash with cash???

We should hope so 4 billion worker bees should be producing a lot of wealth now that we are past subsistence living.

Almost no one appreciates just how much wealth is being created in the world. We have muppets like thrug who has watched a few confirmation basis you tube videos of a debt monster and thinks it's all a ponzi scam. The reality is that the world is just right now going through the industrial revolution. The previous ones really were very isolated and did not do much for the masses.

Right now the world is adding 5 million homes per month.
The debt is backed by this and other immense infrastructure projects.

5 million homes x $100,000 each = $500 billion a month!

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The world is geared with debt. What goes up at some point will come down. Until the next time.

You're too pessimistic its a trait many HPCers hold.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

I don't need to time it correct for 1 billion years I only need to time it correct for 35 years

In 35 years I feel London will be a richer city with a higher population and even more generational wealth. All that tells me London property especially inner London property (both residential and commercial) will do well.

London is geared to global wealth like few other cities.
India will be a rich country in 35 years. In that country alone there will be 60 million households who are new millionaires. Some of them will want second homes and none of them will consider stoke on Trent but quite a few will consider London. Even if none of them make London their home they will have £100 trillion+ in wealth they need managing and London will see a portion of that pie

There is also an odd fact about London today. Its wealth attracts wealth. While people would assume that when prices go up Londoners will sell up and buy a house five times the size in stoke. Well the rich are looking at it the opposite way. If they have £10 million they want to live in a safe rich area with other rich people. I call it the st Albans effect. A town twice the price of its surroundings as people are willing to pay twice the price to live next to other rich people.

I go away for a bit and return and nothing much has changed. India is going to gain 59 and a half million millionaires in 35 years (there are around 236,000 at the moment), and they will have £100 trillion of wealth - more than the entire worlds GDP in 2015 by some margin, and more than the projected GDP of the world in 2020.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268750/global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

What's more, it isn't even the entirety of the Indian population who will achieve this, nope, it's the 60 million millionaire families who will now be worth however many hundreds of millions each.

Why stop at just London? The value of all the homes in the UK is a trifling £6.8 trillion.

https://www.ft.com/content/4906a246-dcb7-11e6-86ac-f253db7791c6?mhq5j=e2

They should perhaps club together and just buy the whole lot? Wonder what that will do to rents? Fergus Wilson could finally offload his 1000 BTL's - though I thought the Chinese were after them? Guess they will be busy buying all of America?

Is Economic still here to marvel at how Great Ape always posts such educated and factual posts? This one ranks up there in stupidity with your youngsters should marry rich grannies post - though I don't think anything will quite topple that one.

Anyway, Nationwide are reporting a 1.1% rise for June - looks like those Indians are feeling spendy!

GreatApe

Yes it looks silly to even think that a country worth $3 trillion today (India) can become a $100 trillion wealth nation in a generation. But just like China appeared to go from nothing to world power over 20 years so will India.

China went from $4.7 trillion to $24.1 trillion between 2000 - 2015 and there is no reason it could not match that performance again and become a >$100 trillion wealth economy within 15 years


In 35 years the USA will be worth about $200 trillion
China $400 trillion
India $200 trillion
UK $35 trillion

World GDP will be in excess of $300 trillion

Just as a check we could try to figure out housing wealth which is a large part of total net wealth. There will be circa 2 billion new homes built over the next 35 years. If we assign a value of $200,000 each ($100,000 in today's money). That is $400 trillion additional wealth in just housing.

There is also the upside of the second great AI revolution which could speed up wealth creation. 2025-2050 could see faster growth than we are used to.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

Yes it looks silly to even think that a country worth $3 trillion today (India) can become a $100 trillion wealth nation in a generation. But just like China appeared to go from nothing to world power over 20 years so will India.

China went from $4.7 trillion to $24.1 trillion between 2000 - 2015 and there is no reason it could not match that performance again and become a >$100 trillion wealth economy within 15 years


In 35 years the USA will be worth about $200 trillion
China $400 trillion
India $200 trillion
UK $35 trillion

World GDP will be in excess of $300 trillion

Just as a check we could try to figure out housing wealth which is a large part of total net wealth. There will be circa 2 billion new homes built over the next 35 years. If we assign a value of $200,000 each ($100,000 in today's money). That is $400 trillion additional wealth in just housing.

There is also the upside of the second great AI revolution which could speed up wealth creation. 2025-2050 could see faster growth than we are used to.

the assumption (at least one of) here is if govenment are not in the way from this happening.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

the assumption (at least one of) here is if government are not in the way from this happening.

Right now the world is building ~50 million decent homes a year I see no reason why that rate could not be sustained for 20-40 years

Housing really is the biggest infrastructure project on earth and a good way to assess progress and wealth build out.

The bears think everything is just a ponzi on a computer spitting out digits while the world just gets on with it

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

Yes it looks silly to even think that a country worth $3 trillion today (India) can become a $100 trillion wealth nation in a generation. But just like China appeared to go from nothing to world power over 20 years so will India.

China went from $4.7 trillion to $24.1 trillion between 2000 - 2015 and there is no reason it could not match that performance again and become a >$100 trillion wealth economy within 15 years


In 35 years the USA will be worth about $200 trillion
China $400 trillion
India $200 trillion
UK $35 trillion

World GDP will be in excess of $300 trillion

Just as a check we could try to figure out housing wealth which is a large part of total net wealth. There will be circa 2 billion new homes built over the next 35 years. If we assign a value of $200,000 each ($100,000 in today's money). That is $400 trillion additional wealth in just housing.

There is also the upside of the second great AI revolution which could speed up wealth creation. 2025-2050 could see faster growth than we are used to.

India will undoubtedly grow - I have shares in an Indian managed fund, so my money is where my mouth is on that one.

As for the rest of it, I'm going back on sabbatical.

chucknorris

economic wrote: »

but its down what? 3-4% since you bought? hardly anything to cry about. agree on 400k thats large nominally but in % terms its nothing out of the norm.

im glad you learnt from it. education like this is best when you actully feel the loss (even though you havent lost anything as you havent sold yet).

I've just sold my British Land shares and switched back to a tracker, for what its worth I think British Land will go even higher. But as the price went up the yield was reducing, and the higher yield was my reward for taking a risk with a single company (rather than a fund/tracker). So I was happy enough to take my profit (about £20k) and reinvest it, if British Land does fall I may reinvest again for the yield.