Migration responsible for boom in private renting, uk born renting has not increased

GreatApe

On another thread deserves its own

2011 census shows recent arrivals are far more likely to rent privately

Private renting for UK born was 14.7% while it was 72.9% for recent arrivals (0-5 years) and 50.9% for recent arrivals (5-10 years) . See table 7

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_381447.pdf

The private rental sector has gone from about 3.6 million in 2007 to about 5.5 million today a growth of about 1.9 million units over the decade.

Over the decade we have seen some 6 million gross inward migration and its reasonable to expect 62% of these people to rent privately ( 62% is midpoint of the 0-5 and 5-10 year groups in 2011 cencus).

62% of 6 million persons at 2.4 persons per property = 1.55 million rentals

So of the ~1.9 million increase in rentals over the decade, 1.55 million of them are recent migrants or over 80%

So the reason why renting has increased a lot is clearly the boom in migrants over the decade. Not house prices not even mortgage rationing. It clearly explains why renting has increased even in the cheapest regions of the uk

GreatApe

Whats more while UK born renting is up in nominal terms it is not up much at all in percentage terms. To make it simple lets say everyone in the uk in 2007 was a uk born citizen

2007 was 3.63 million renters out of a stock of 26.77 million homes = 13.56% renters
2017 is 3.63 million + 20% of the 1.9 million increase in renting out of a stock of ~28.5 million homes = 14.07% renting

So 13.56% uk renters have become 14.07% uk renters over the decade which is virtually the same so ownership is virtually the same as a decade ago if you strip out the migrants. There may be some regional variation but overall uk born private renting has not increased in percentage terms but at all.

SKINNYCOW

Please could someone help me. I am lost on this forum. I would like to start a new post and ask a question but I have looked everywhere but can't seem to see where I can do this. I had posted before a long time ago but I can't remember how I did that.

Sorry but please don't tell me off.

Thanks in advance

davomcdave

GreatApe wrote: »

On another thread deserves its own

2011 census shows recent arrivals are far more likely to rent privately

Private renting for UK born was 14.7% while it was 72.9% for recent arrivals (0-5 years) and 50.9% for recent arrivals (5-10 years) . See table 7

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_381447.pdf

The private rental sector has gone from about 3.6 million in 2007 to about 5.5 million today a growth of about 1.9 million units over the decade.

Over the decade we have seen some 6 million gross inward migration and its reasonable to expect 62% of these people to rent privately ( 62% is midpoint of the 0-5 and 5-10 year groups in 2011 cencus).

62% of 6 million persons at 2.4 persons per property = 1.55 million rentals

So of the ~1.9 million increase in rentals over the decade, 1.55 million of them are recent migrants or over 80%

So the reason why renting has increased a lot is clearly the boom in migrants over the decade. Not house prices not even mortgage rationing. It clearly explains why renting has increased even in the cheapest regions of the uk

Your numbers assume that nobody that has migrated to the UK has subsequently left. The reality is about half of migrants stay and half leave.

davomcdave

SKINNYCOW wrote: »

Please could someone help me. I am lost on this forum. I would like to start a new post and ask a question but I have looked everywhere but can't seem to see where I can do this. I had posted before a long time ago but I can't remember how I did that.

Sorry but please don't tell me off.

Thanks in advance

I think you need to get past a certain number of posts to start a new thread.

GreatApe

davomcdave wrote: »

Your numbers assume that nobody that has migrated to the UK has subsequently left. The reality is about half of migrants stay and half leave.

I did consider that. However when I saw that the foreign born figure jumped 3.1 million between 2001-2011 census and that clearly migration between 2007-2017 was higher than 2001-2011 I decided not to post that at this stage.

My guess is we will see at least 4.5 million increase perhaps closer to 5 million. So yes of the 600k that arrive 100k-150k leave.

So I suppose 4.75 million rather than 6 million would be a better estimate. But on the other side the 62% figure for private renters will also be marginally up let's assume 65%. Also I think the 2.4 figure per house is a little over it should be 2.35

65% of 4.75 million persons at 2.35 persons per house = 1.31 million of the growth in private rentals due to the increase in the non UK born population and their propensity to privately rent.

1.31 million over the approx 1.9 million increase in private renting = 69% of the increase due to the migrants

Also bear in mind the housing stock increased by about 7% over the decade so the 3.6 million rentals in 2007 should have increased by 7% = 250k units just to keep the private rental sector the same percent as the stock of homes.

So roughly. Private rental sector increased 1.9 million units. 1.3 million down to migrants. 0.25 million due to natural growth of the housing stock. 0.35 million growth in uk born renting.

Nominal Number increase
69% due to the migrants
13% due to the growth in the total number of homes
18% down to the UK born.

So while it might be difficult estimated to very high precession it's clear the most the increase in renting is down the migrants

davomcdave

Rather than just writing numbers down, Google is your friend:

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2016/jan/25/is-immigration-causing-the-uk-housing-crisis

michaels

davomcdave wrote: »

Rather than just writing numbers down, Google is your friend:

https://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/2016/jan/25/is-immigration-causing-the-uk-housing-crisis

I know it is the gordien but even for them it is economically illiterate:
Claim 1 - because migrants tend to live more people per property they will not put extra pressure on housing. Well if you have 10 extra people and they live 5 per house rather than 2.5 per house you still need 2 extra houses.
Claim 2 - In some circumstances as the proportion of migrants in an area goes up house prices fall due to 'white flight'. It is fairly obvious that more people chasing the same number of houses = higher prices overall even if there are isolated local discrepancies. Where does the gordien think those moving out of the area are going?

mrginge

michaels wrote: »

I know it is the gordien but even for them it is economically illiterate:
Claim 1 - because migrants tend to live more people per property they will not put extra pressure on housing. Well if you have 10 extra people and they live 5 per house rather than 2.5 per house you still need 2 extra houses.

Claim 2 - In some circumstances as the proportion of migrants in an area goes up house prices fall due to 'white flight'. It is fairly obvious that more people chasing the same number of houses = higher prices overall even if there are isolated local discrepancies. Where does the gordien think those moving out of the area are going?

They don't seem to see any issue with cramming more people into existing living space. Thankfully our houses are big enough to cope. Erm...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/10909403/British-homes-are-the-smallest-in-Europe-study-finds.html

They also don't see an issue on supporting infrastructure.

And they don't see an issue with average incomes falling in these areas.

So well done the grauniad. Take an area, overcrowd it with poor people, get rid of the affluent people and lo and behold house prices drop.

davomcdave

michaels wrote: »

I know it is the gordien but even for them it is economically illiterate:
Claim 1 - because migrants tend to live more people per property they will not put extra pressure on housing. Well if you have 10 extra people and they live 5 per house rather than 2.5 per house you still need 2 extra houses.
Claim 2 - In some circumstances as the proportion of migrants in an area goes up house prices fall due to 'white flight'. It is fairly obvious that more people chasing the same number of houses = higher prices overall even if there are isolated local discrepancies. Where does the gordien think those moving out of the area are going?

I don't agree with the article, it's typical Guardianista clap trap. It does cite some statistics that have been put together with some rigor though rather than someone simply writing down the first number that pops into their head.

System

I think you are referring to immigrants, not "migrants".
People emigrating would confuse the picture because obviously they no longer require housing.