UK manufacturers report strongest export growth since late 2014 - BCC

Tromking

davomcdave wrote: »

I think that pointing out the folly of what you are doing is important. You becoming poorer isn't the fault of policy or some happenstance, it's the fault of Brexit.

Well done, you won the referendum but I will continue to point out the mess that you've left the country in. This is just the beginning. If you think you dislike my posts now just wait until supply chains start getting cut by Brexit.

You don't even begin to understand what a stupid thing you have done. Oh well, you'll see.

First off I don't dislike your posts, I enjoy the discussion they provoke.
I'm more than happy to contemplate that Brexit may be a complete disaster, with respect better people than you have told me that it will.
You made a judgement as did I and we are nowhere near seeing who was right.
Lets see how it plays out before we start banding the word "stupid" about.

davomcdave

Carl31 wrote: »

Your cost of production is the same, the 100 bikes still has the same material and overhead cost, it's just now demand has increased which you can try and take advantage of, which would reduce unit cost in the long run, or you remain static and let your competition take up the increased foreign orders. Either way, the local bike industry increases output, meaning more income and more employment. How is that and a lose situation? The only thing would be if tariffs were raised in the overseas country to increase import costs

Only if you are producing bicycles using 100% local parts.

The chances are that the aluminium comes from Iceland or Australia, the tyres and tubes come from Germany, the frames come from South Korea or China and so on. As a result the cost of the bike will increase for locals, reducing the local demand.

Even if the aluminium was made locally it's priced in dollars and sold to an international market so the price would still rise. As there is a good chance that Metaphorical Bikes Ltd is run by a clever person, she probably has a long term supply agreement in place to buy aluminium at a fixed price for the next few months. Once that runs out she will pay more and that's why inflation has further to run.

The problem with the framing of the Brexit debate is a fundamental lack of understanding of how C21st supply chains work. The Guinness example I linked to is a good one but there are plenty more. There is little except the most simple of products that is made in a single country any more. The biggest single challenge of Brexit is going to be to allow supply chains to carry on functioning. If Britain is going to leave the Single Market, and as Brexit is in large part about the false conflation of immigration and the EU she will leave the Single Market, then keeping supply chains intact is going to be very hard to achieve.

Oh well. You lot voted for it and you have to live with the consequences.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Oh well. You lot voted for it and you have to live with the consequences.

Oh dear.
Since it appears that you are in dire need of some ............. assistance ... may I politely suggest you read this:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=72406258&postcount=18797

Tromking

davomcdave wrote: »

Oh well. You lot voted for it and you have to live with the consequences.

Well, obviously!

peachyprice

davomcdave wrote: »

This is what happens when your currency falls. Locals can no longer afford to compete with foreigners to buy product so it's sold abroad. Exports rise, imports fall, foreigners' standards of living rise and locals' standards of living fall.

The currency markets' response to Brexit has made every Briton poorer.

You do know the £ is about where is was for the majority of time from 2009 through to 2015, and the peaks in 2012 and 2015 were the exception not the norm, yes?

davomcdave

peachyprice wrote: »

You do know the £ is about where is was for the majority of time from 2009 through to 2015, and the peaks in 2012 and 2015 were the exception not the norm, yes?

By what measure?

Thrugelmir

davomcdave wrote: »

Did it? I don't think importers would think that.

Was only in 1999 as well.

The Sick Man of the Euro


THE social-market economy devised in Germany after the second world war, with its careful blend of market capitalism, strong labour protection and a generous welfare state, served the country well for several decades. But it is now coming under pressure as never before. As economic growth stalls yet again, the country is being branded the sick man (or even the Japan) of Europe. This is inevitably casting a cloud over Europe's single currency, the euro, for Germany accounts for a full third of the euro countries' output. When Germany sneezes, its neighbours feel a chill—and nervous markets are likely to sell the euro. Thus the biggest economic problem for Europe today is how to revive the German economy.

The numbers certainly tell a bleak story. German GDP shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 1998, against growth of 0.5% for the rest of the euro area. The figures for the first quarter of this year, which will be published next week, are not expected to provide much cheer. A few forecasters—albeit in the minority—think that the economy may have shrunk for a second quarter in a row, which would put Germany technically in recession. Any growth that is recorded is sure to be small. The government has scaled down its forecast of GDP growth for this year to 1.5%. Even that may be optimistic; several private-sector economists' forecasts go as low as 1%.

Next year may bring better news, as exports at last pick up again, helped by the weaker euro. But few expect a stellar performance. Rather, Germany seems likely to persist with more of the sub-par growth that has characterised its economy in recent years. On average, indeed, German growth has lagged that of the rest of the euro-11 countries by almost one percentage point a year since 1995.

The world changes quicker than you may realise.

http://www.economist.com/node/209559