Lunatic London Property market starting to turn?

Windofchange

economic wrote: »

you worry too much. just relax its a nice sunny sunday evening

Not worried at all. I'm just back from a 12 hour shift so haven't had too much time to enjoy the sun. Bring on a 40% crash - the house we like falls from 1.5 million to 850k.

economic

Windofchange wrote: »

Not worried at all. I'm just back from a 12 hour shift so haven't had too much time to enjoy the sun. Bring on a 40% crash - the house we like falls from 1.5 million to 850k.

i personally dont care what happens to prices. not sure why you or the media are so fixated by them. prices are what they are. and will do what they will do.

Windofchange

economic wrote: »

i personally dont care what happens to prices. not sure why you or the media are so fixated by them. prices are what they are. and will do what they will do.

Says the man who is on here 24/7 arguing about house prices. This is a thread about whether:

"Lunatic London property market starting to turn?"

What are you expecting to find here - a debate on the cost of Lavender? I think we both know from the past 6 months you care very much about the cost of houses. It would appear that recently your supposition that prices only ever remain static or go up is being put to the test however...

Windofchange

economic wrote: »

i personally dont care what happens to prices. not sure why you or the media are so fixated by them. prices are what they are. and will do what they will do.

From the Look, see, I really don't care what happens to house prices thread entitled "Brexit, the economy and house prices" we have:

economic wrote: »

exactly. the only reason I take an interest in it is to protect my standard of living through management of my wealth.

Or there is of course your active engagement in the "Has the market peaked" thread.

Nope. Completely not bothered about prices.

Anyway, back to the thread. I'll pickup your attempt at a snipey comeback tomorrow along with any on topic replies that don't involve comments about the weather or why are we debating house prices on a forum entitled "Debate house prices & the economy"

chucknorris

economic wrote: »

i personally dont care what happens to prices. not sure why you or the media are so fixated by them. prices are what they are. and will do what they will do.

I'm not sure what I want to be honest, we've just sold about 30% of our investment of property. We were intending to sell another flat next year, then sell 2 more flats in about 5/6 years (total current value of those being about another 30%). One of the significant reasons for selling was that I had pencilled in the next large correction to be in the mid 20's, by which time I will be in my late 60's, so probably in my mid 70's at the next optimum selling widow, which is getting a bit late. But if we could have a major correction very soon, it might just work out nicely:

1. Upgrade our home far cheaper.
2. Hold the property and sell up in my late 60's
3. Buy another investment property in the trough.

Balanced against that though, is that I (not my wife) would rather just get out of property in the next 5/6 years, and be free of the hassle.

Those articles are linking a potential house price crash to the possibility of a Brexit related recession, which of course creates other buying opportunities to invest in the markets, interesting times ahead.

Thrugelmir

chucknorris wrote: »

Those articles are linking a potential house price crash to the possibility of a Brexit related recession, which of course creates other buying opportunities to invest in the markets, interesting times ahead.

A number of factors seem to be coming together at the same time. Possibly we are simply returning to the historic norms. After 3 decades of exuberance. With the availability of easy credit. Everyone appears to have lost sight of the fundamentals and the fact that nothing is ever for free.

Windofchange

Thrugelmir wrote: »

A number of factors seem to be coming together at the same time. Possibly we are simply returning to the historic norms. After 3 decades of exuberance. With the availability of easy credit. Everyone appears to have lost sight of the fundamentals and the fact that nothing is ever for free.

The economy tried of course to return to historical norms back in 2008, but wasn't allowed to. They've got nothing obvious to throw at it this time around, but I'm sure they'll find something. Wonder how rampant inflation will run before they put rates up? London is an absolute car crash. Inflated to ludicrous levels by as you rightly say easy credit, lax lending and greed.

It will of course be all so obvious in ten years time when there is / should there be a crash. Ah yes, we saw that coming everyone will be saying. Government assistance to buy half a flat, emergency interest rates for the best part of a decade, record levels of unsecured debt, 24 year olds 'buying' half million pound one bed flats, brand new BMW's all round - a country up to its eyeballs in debt. It'll be blamed of course on Brexit or Trump starting a war or pretty much anything other than the systematic !!!! ups of successive governments.

Koldweather1

Windofchange wrote: »

The economy tried of course to return to historical norms back in 2008, but wasn't allowed to. They've got nothing obvious to throw at it this time around, but I'm sure they'll find something. Wonder how rampant inflation will run before they put rates up? London is an absolute car crash. Inflated to ludicrous levels by as you rightly say easy credit, lax lending and greed.

Yep, the government didn't allow the crash to unfold like it probably should have done, and my gut tells me any attempt at a crash will be stopped again, if only because there are still ALOT of people who have mortgages from the last big bubble in the mid/late 90s and 00s, and most of those will be natural tory voters I'd expect.

No party will want to be the one to let it pop on their watch, and too many people have massive mortgages that NEED low interest rates and NEED some form of HPI. I suspect the political need to keep them happy (and there must be a large number still, yet alone another new 1-3 million since the last relfation in 12-13). Any party that lets the system crash like a few want on here will NEVER get into power again and will basically eek out an exsistance like the Liberals after the 1920s.

I think they will have to increase rates, but very slowly, as someone said in the other thread, so much of the British wealth is locked into property, its not a boil that is easily lanced.

BTW, I DO think prices need to come down, my gut is the best people can hope for is a steady but prolonged drift down, maybe 1-2% a year for 5-7 years...though London is certainly primed to pop, but that is almost its own micro-climate.

AG47

Still going down even before IRs go back up

Thrugelmir

Koldweather1 wrote: »

Yep, the government didn't allow the crash to unfold like it probably should have done,

The destruction of the entire UK financial system would have solved nothing. Far better to let the air out slowly.