Will Labour split?

padington

The problem for the centre right is that there is only one labour party, that's the brand. If you leave and set up a new party you become a paper tiger. I think many will join the lib dems and many will go and get better jobs elsewhere like Hunt did.

Sadly we are entering a new era of extremism (right and left) it seems and i can't see a way out until both of the idiotic sides ruin blighty quite badly.

Idiots being opposed by idiots.

The Greatest Idiot for all of course is Theresa May who doesn't believe Brexit is a good thing for this country. Corbyn is right behind for being such an incredible world stage amatuer.

Long live the lib dems.

antrobus

westernpromise wrote: »

But the party split from would still be Labour and would presumably keep the incumbency advantages.

Yes. There was a YouGov poll a month or so ago that concluded that, in the event of a split;

1/3rd of Labour Voters would support the left faction,
1/3rd of Labour Voters would support the right faction, and
1/3rd of Labour Voters would support whomsoever was 'Labour' irrespective of their exact politics.

That's the 'incumbency advantage'. That is what they are fighting over.

If you have Labour running at 24%-29%, then there is an awful big difference between getting 18% in a GE and 9%. Considering the geographical distribution, 18% might still get you 100+ seats, which is a start. With 9% you could get zip.

Of course, that doesn't tell you what would happen after a split. Things change. Stuff can happen.

antrobus

steampowered wrote: »

I don't think so. Labour is relatively united in terms of policy - certainly much more than it was in the past....

You are either very drunk, or haven't been paying attention over the past year or so.

What unity can there be in a party whose MPs express no confidence in their leader by a margin of 172 to 40?

MacMickster

antrobus wrote: »

Yes. There was a YouGov poll a month or so ago that concluded that, in the event of a split;

1/3rd of Labour Voters would support the left faction,
1/3rd of Labour Voters would support the right faction, and
1/3rd of Labour Voters would support whomsoever was 'Labour' irrespective of their exact politics.

That's the 'incumbency advantage'. That is what they are fighting over.

If you have Labour running at 24%-29%, then there is an awful big difference between getting 18% in a GE and 9%. Considering the geographical distribution, 18% might still get you 100+ seats, which is a start. With 9% you could get zip.

Of course, that doesn't tell you what would happen after a split. Things change. Stuff can happen.

The reality is that any newly formed centrist Labour spin-off, whilst far more appealing to the electorate in general, would never win over the 8 to 10% of hard-left current Labour supporters. Even if they got back to the Blair/Brown glory days of 1997, they would still be missing that 8 to 10% (plus the bulk of Scotland where the traditional Labour vote has probably permanently switched to the SNP) then they still wouldn't gain power.

BobQ

Apparently the Labour meeting this evening ended with lots of raised voices.

As much as I wished they would do otherwise, Labour will be decimated at the next election unless the existing centre left Parliamentary Party resign en mass and seek to form a new party. Frankly they have nothing to lose.

When the SDP formed in 1982, the four MPs that left the Labour Party had a limited powerbase all the time main stream Labour people like Healey, John Smith, Kaufman, Hattersley,Rees remained. If say 100 MPs were to resign the whip it would make a far greater impact and that needs to happen if a centre-left party is to emerge.

Corbyn has ruined the Labour Party and whatever the more dogmatic Tories say, it is not good for democracy

Masomnia

I can't see a split unless there's a general election, Labour get trounced, and Corbyn refuses to stand down (which I think is a real possibility).

BobQ

Masomnia wrote: »

I can't see a split unless there's a general election, Labour get trounced, and Corbyn refuses to stand down (which I think is a real possibility).

You may be right, but were I a Labour MP with a majority less than 10000 I would be expecting to lose the next election. Resigning the Labour whip now will have more impact if enough do it.

davomcdave

westernpromise wrote: »

But the party split from would still be Labour and would presumably keep the incumbency advantages.

AIUI the way it works is that if you have the seats you get the money and become the official opposition. In the British Constitution parties don't feature heavily. A big chunk of what rules events in Parliament comes from the C19th which was the period of the rise of the parties. (Disclaimer: I am not an historian).

So, initially at least, if the majority of the PLP split from Labour they'd keep the Short money. The problem would be to persuade the majority of the PLP to split. TBH I simply don't see it happening. Most of the MPs are wed to the Labour brand as they are to the policies they support. Politics at that level is always going to involve a lot of compromise so they are used to supporting publicly things they hate in private.

BobQ

MacMickster wrote: »

The reality is that any newly formed centrist Labour spin-off, whilst far more appealing to the electorate in general, would never win over the 8 to 10% of hard-left current Labour supporters. Even if they got back to the Blair/Brown glory days of 1997, they would still be missing that 8 to 10% (plus the bulk of Scotland where the traditional Labour vote has probably permanently switched to the SNP) then they still wouldn't gain power.

While that is probably true, there are probably just as many people like me who will vote Lib Dem or Green or indeed anything but Tory while Corbyn and Momentum lead the party. They might give a new centre left party a chance

There are also some who have voted Tory, or will vote Tory next time, who would give a more moderate party a chance.

Personally, while I identify with "Labour" its very title is arguably dragging it down as so many people see it as an anachronism now that apart from the poor we are all "middle class". I do not agree with this view but so many people these days think they are superior in some way when basically they are selling their labour and skills.

Thrugelmir

beecher2 wrote: »

These are the Scottish figures
SNP 46%, CON 19%, LAB 17%, GRN 8%, LD 6%

(which might be a surprise to some as Ruth Davidson is being portrayed as a possible future FM with a gap of 27 points)

Labour are finished up here so I don't think there are enough numbers to split. They've tried to rebrand themselves up here so many times!

SNP are akin to UKIP. Once the aim is achieved. Support may diminish.