Will banks leave the UK?

motorguy

re14796 wrote: »

UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?

No. They wont - well not to any great extent anyway. They're postulating to get better deals from the government.

Xbigman

A few random thoughts...

If I was running a big bank I'd make sure I had a subsidiary with a European banking licence and some office space already leased in case it was needed. Which is what just about every big company, bank or not, is doing. That's why we keep hearing from Paris, Frankfurt and now Amsterdam how UK companies have plans to relocate there. I think its more a case that they have a backup plan to relocate there.

I was in a minority of one recently when discussing the 50bn euro cost of leaving the EU. Everyone else thought it was terrible. I thought it was great. Each time I hear how Europe needs something else from us in the negotiations I become more optimistic that there will be a deal.

I was watching the Dutch election results come in at work (I work nights) and their Prime minister stood up and slagged off populism and Brexit in his victory speech. The BBC then managed to come up with some facts. His party had 41 out of 150 MP's and he led a three party coalition. After the election he has 31 out of 150 with multiple second placed parties on 19. If he forms a new coalition (and it is 'if') he will need at least a five party coalition to have a majority. This is what passes for a great political victory in modern Europe.
I also noticed that Merkel's spokesman sent congratulations, Hollandes aide sent congratulations, someone else's assistant made a comment. All the actual leaders were clearly asleep.
Not a great show of support really, was it?




Darren

asajj

No one claimed EU wouldn't need UK but some people said UK didn't need EU. Dutch election was important due to rise of populist parties so yes it probably did count as a victory.

The main issue with banks is the passporting rights, if they can't keep it, then they can't do the work connected to that.

They can't relocate everyone and why they should they really. When a company leaves a country for whatever reason, they don't just relocate everyone, do they? They ask few rising stars or senior people if they are willing to move and then recruit locally. It is a cheaper option first of all and not many will be willing to change their life all-together for a job.

Xbigman

We do need the EU. We would survive without them but it would take longer and much more effort. The EU also needs us.
A reasonable deal is on the cards.

Just my opinion of course.



Darren

Big_Hairy_Spider

re14796 wrote: »

UPS, hsbc, JP Morgan are saying they will move jobs out of the UK, Is this true? Or is this just a threat to get the government to get a better deal and not press for a hard brexit. Is the financial sector a good sector to work in still?

Of the three mentioned, if I was a betting man (and I am) it would be HSBC that relocates more than the others. It's current outgoing chairman, Stuart Gulliver, has been moving the banks strategic position towards Asia, particularly China. His successor, Mark Tucker, managed one of Asia's biggest Insurance companies, AIA. The slant to China will continue.

HSBC's policy has nothing to do with Brexit. British workers have steadily been made redundant, and those jobs have been out-sourced to China and India for (at least) the last three years.

kaya

we are one of the highest taxed countries in the world, if the banks were going to move they would have done it many years ago

jadziad

Goldman Sachs today, from BBC News:

Goldman Sachs is to move hundreds of people out of London before any Brexit deal is struck as part of its contingency plans for the UK leaving the European Union, the Wall Street firm's Europe chief executive Richard Gnodde has told CNBC.

"We are going to start to execute on those contingency plans," Mr Gnodde, pictured centre, said.

"For this first period, this is really the period as we put in place contingency plans, this is in the hundreds of people as opposed to anything greater than that," he said.

Theresa May will start the Brexit process on March 29.

The bulk of Goldman's European operations are in Britain, where it has around 6,000 employees.

motorguy

jadziad wrote: »

Goldman Sachs today, from BBC News:

Sounds reasonable from a risk perspective - move a few hundred roles in the meantime so you can continue to function during any turbulence around brexit.

MataNui

Euro clearing will need to move to the EU (unless a passporting deal is struck). I believe there are also rules about where a bank has its headquarters which will mean banks will probably need to restructure and move some admin jobs to an EU country (but these will be duplicated positions not truly moved ones).

Obviously retail banking (or what sorry excuse for it is currently left in the UK) wont move. Also the chances of banks moving any trading operations they dont 100% need to move to the EU is as likely as you buying a gun and shooting yourself in the face, since financially that would be the same result for them. Banks are greedy. The idea that they would voluntarily move to a higher regulated, higher taxed region is laughable. Remember France in particular is one of the EU countries that campaigned the loudest for the Tobin tax which in the days of algorithmic trading would pretty much destroy investment banking.