Why the bad news for landlords is just beginning

economic

i love it when the great ape replies.

Windofchange

GreatApe wrote: »

You really are special Mr BagOfWind with your ultra confirmation bias. Why must the number with mortgages be growing with the data that 80,000 will buy with a mortgage this year? What if all of that 80,000 are purchase from other landlords who have mortgages then no growth at all. And what about the stock of rentals some 5.5 million units how many of them have mortgages and pay them off annually?

Im sure the data is on the CML and ONS websites go look it up I'm not inclined to do your research for you.

The figure you should be looking for is the total outstanding debt on BTLs and you can figure out the total value of the 5+ million properties and be shocked to find the overall LTV is around 20% :beer:

The irony in your first sentence is quite something. It is you who is just pulling figures out of thin air and then trying to appear educated. The figure is 32% of privately rented homes have a BTL mortgage attached to them, so not a tiny amount. Once again another un-researched, unfactual "confirmation bias" statement from yourself.

As for your supposition that the overall LTV ratio is 20%, well you are rather missing the point that the whole BTL market isn't owned by your mate down the pub. Someone's LTV might be 5%, another 55%, whatever.

What about the 1.4 million BTL geniuses who aren't aware of the upcoming tax changes!?

https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/3/1-4m-landlords-unaware-of-mortgage-interest-tax-relief-change

How prepared do you reckon they are going to be for a rainy day? This is of course what our nation has become though. What could possibly go wrong - nearly a third of your BTL gang can't get their heads around budgetary announcements. Oh, this will be fun to watch.

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

The irony in your first sentence is quite something. It is you who is just pulling figures out of thin air and then trying to appear educated.

The internet does not forget, so go and actually find the post in this thread where I pulled a figure out of thin air and quote it. What I did say is something along the lines of 'most rentals have no mortgage' and it was probably in response to an assertion by you that most landlords are mortgaged up to the gills. The reason I said 'most rentals have no mortgage' is because our primate brains are quite bad at storing information and memories so I recall reading the figure some time ago but I did not recall the exact figure but I recalled enough to say that it was less than half and I recalled and was able to figure out that the outstanding debt was about £200 billion for a stock worth in excess of £1.1 billion.

I could of course check everything before I have a debate and post nothing but statistics but that would take too much effort you dont do it nor do I. Or rather most people dont do that as the norm else conversions would be very short indeed.

The figure is 32% of privately rented homes have a BTL mortgage attached to them

so like I recalled correctly enough

so not a tiny amount.

if you go back and read your posts would you say an unbiased and uninformed reader would assume you were painting a picture far worse than nearly 70% dont have a mortgage on their rentals?

Once again another un-researched, unfactual "confirmation bias" statement from yourself.

We are all prone to confirmation bias and the halo effect its in our makeup it takes quite an effort to realize it and try to break free from it and even then its virtually impossible. If we accept this then the only course of action is to surround yourself with successful people and hopefully the confirmation bias will copy success rather than failure

Im not sure in this instance I had any confirmation bias as I was not expressing a view, I was simply recalling in general terms stats that I had read. Saying most rentals have no mortgage is not a confirmation bias as it turns out by your own 32% its a fact.

In contrast your posts have denial of my general recollection of facts followed up by links to websites that say doom and gloom are just around the corner. So while both of us are human and prone to confirmation bias I am not expressing a view while you are expressing the view that my recollection of stats is absurd and things must be terrible just look at this website that says so.....

GreatApe

Windofchange wrote: »

The irony in your first sentence is quite something. It is you who is just pulling figures out of thin air and then trying to appear educated. The figure is 32% of privately rented homes have a BTL mortgage attached to them, so not a tiny amount. Once again another un-researched, unfactual "confirmation bias" statement from yourself.

Did I not say most rentals have no mortgage?

As for your supposition that the overall LTV ratio is 20%, well you are rather missing the point that the whole BTL market isn't owned by your mate down the pub. Someone's LTV might be 5%, another 55%, whatever.

Did I not say most rentals have no mortgage but overall its about 20% LTV? Clearly that means most are at 0% while some are at more than that so that overall its about 20% LTV

What about the 1.4 million BTL geniuses who aren't aware of the upcoming tax changes!?

https://www.lettingagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2017/3/1-4m-landlords-unaware-of-mortgage-interest-tax-relief-change

How prepared do you reckon they are going to be for a rainy day? This is of course what our nation has become though. What could possibly go wrong - nearly a third of your BTL gang can't get their heads around budgetary announcements.

I reckon they will be fine. Since 70% have no mortgage and most of the other 30% will have a lot of equity and many landlords have other sources of income too. Your talking about a group that has about £1 trillion in net equity. Even if house prices crash 20% by Christmas 'my gang' would have north of £900 billion gross and £700 billion net.

Oh, this will be fun to watch.

You will be disappointed i am 100% sure of that. the reason is your not after affordable property you are after a crisis and a 'I told you so!'. There are bears like you who live in the north and say the same things as you despite living in an area where property is down right cheap. If prices go down or crash your 'I told you so' wont mean anything to me

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

GreatApe wrote: »

Did I not say most rentals have no mortgage?



Did I not say most rentals have no mortgage but overall its about 20% LTV? Clearly that means most are at 0% while some are at more than that so that overall its about 20% LTV



I reckon they will be fine. Since 70% have no mortgage and most of the other 30% will have a lot of equity and many landlords have other sources of income too. Your talking about a group that has about £1 trillion in net equity. Even if house prices crash 20% by Christmas 'my gang' would have north of £900 billion gross and £700 billion net.



You will be disappointed i am 100% sure of that. the reason is your not after affordable property you are after a crisis and a 'I told you so!'. There are bears like you who live in the north and say the same things as you despite living in an area where property is down right cheap. If prices go down or crash your 'I told you so' wont mean anything to me

Surely you've realised how pointless it is responding to this idiot. He doesn't learn, he won't read and he therefore won't comprehend anything that you've posted.

GreatApe

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Surely you've realised how pointless it is responding to this idiot. He doesn't learn, he won't read and he therefore won't comprehend anything that you've posted.

its not his fault its the way the mind is wired

Windofchange

Yup, blimey, that's me told.

westernpromise

ONS reports rents up in year to Jan 2017:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/indexofprivatehousingrentalprices/jan2017

• Private rental prices paid by tenants in Great Britain rose by 2.2% in the 12 months to January 2017; this is down from 2.3% in December 2016.
• In England, private rental prices grew by 2.3%, Wales saw growth of 0.4% while Scotland saw growth of 0.1% in the 12 months to January 2017.
• London private rental prices grew by 2.1% in the 12 months to January 2017, which is 0.1 percentage points below the Great Britain 12-month growth rate.

economic

Windofchange wrote: »

Yup, blimey, that's me told.

wont anyone think of the poor nurses???????????

westernpromise

economic wrote: »

wont anyone think of the poor nurses???????????

Not me.

1/ the patients
2/ the taxpayers

and that's it.