Has the housing market hit freefall yet?

talksalot81

One of the most amusing things about these discussions is how people have to keep changing tune! I went back to the end of last year at which point I was basically the only one entertaining the thought of a crash when we had comments which entirely mocked my view - such as....

NAR wrote: »

Prices in the last 3 years have gone up more than 50%; prices in the next two years are likely to be up another 50% if the current trend continues. Your larger deposit won't come close!
Don't know why you are ignoring good advice from people you have "got the t shirt", but there again your own thoughts on the matter may be blinding you to the real world of market forces.

ginger_nuts wrote: »

Quote:
Originally Posted by christh
Don't worry, talksalot81. You and PropertyGuru are the only ones talking any sense on this thread as far as I can see. You've done the maths - renting and saving is the only sane option in this insane house-of-cards pyramid scheme housing environment we're in. The money you save will come in handy in a couple of years time - you may even be able to buy that '180K' semi for cash.

LOL:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

And now it seems that. although I have not been shown correct as yet, my previously ridiculous and nonsensical calculations are not so bad after all.... :rotfl: :rotfl: :T :T :rotfl: :rotfl:

IvanOpinion

talksalot, I have been hearing predictions of price crashes from the turn of the century .. most f it is wishful thinking .. however given the nature of the market if you keep following the same line then ultimately it will eventually come true.

I have posted this before, but a friend of mine was convinced of a price crash so about 3 years ago he sold up, banked a large amount of equity and moved into rented accomodation. The subsequent rises in price means that he could not even afford to buy his old house back .. even if the market dropped by a third.

NOBODY KNOWS what is going to happen ... however by the law of averages a 50:50 prediction stands a 1-in-2 chance of becoming true which as far as guesses go is pretty good odds .

Ivan

leftieM

talksalot81 wrote: »

And now it seems that. although I have not been shown correct as yet, my previously ridiculous and nonsensical calculations are not so bad after all.... :rotfl: :rotfl: :T :T :rotfl: :rotfl:

I always thought you had a point but you had a way of putting it across that I found alienating.

championmongo1

talksalot81 wrote: »

Whilst I too believe that the cpi figure will be sufficient to induce a drop in rates you should be aware that 2% is the target, not 3%. 3% is considered to be dangerously high and that was why we had the recent batch of rises. In all honesty, 1.8% is close enough to target that they should leave it alone but I doubt they will.

As for your predictions - where will the money come from to keep it up and then induce further growth? Wage inflation is low and has a long way to go before property becomes affordable to those without existing equity.

Yeah I concede that I misquoted the inflation target-it is indeed 2% but it is sitting at 1.8% and market analysists and predicting that it may fall further to 1.3% which would maybe (and only maybe) force the Bank of England to cut its base rate.

I really can't see house prices dropping by 30% unless interest rates were to rise to double figures as people will just hold on to their houses rather than sell them for a loss! I'm currently trying to sell a house as I want to join by fiancee in England and it was originally valued at £167-170k at the end of June so I put it on the market at £165k. It hasn't sold so I've dropped the price to £159,950 but if I can't get a quick sale at this price I will just hold onto it and rent it it for a few months untll the spring boom or longer if needs be!

I appreciate that between the end of June till now it appears my house has dropped by 6% but that's because there are far more houses currently for sale than ever before meaning that houses really have to stand out & I've decided that by being cheaper than the competition will help mine to stand out and enable me to buy in England while their market is also slow!

I think houses that are currently valued at £200k will be worth £250-£275k in 5-10 years and all this talk of a market crash will prove to be nothing more than a blip, i.e. a 2-5% drop now followed by steady albeit much lower pice increases!

However houses are only worth what people are willing to pay so I could be proved wrong! I hope not though as on a personal note it would scupper my chances of buying in England. Secondly think of all those unfortunate first time buyers who could be left with negative equity in their homes.

agal

Has anyone seen Portrush lately? It's starting to resemble a Spanish Costa (with a lot less sunshine of course!)
Everywhere you look there are apartment blocks being built, or holes in the ground waiting for apartment blocks to be built, or houses waiting to be knocked down so developers can build yet more apartment blocks :eek:
Surely there can't be that many people wanting to buy apartments in Portrush?

dmxdave

There is a block of apartments in Fermanagh overlooking the Kesh river, I don't beleive that any have been sold since they were built in 1999 or 2000. IMO they are becoming an eyesore but again that is my personal opinion! before I get grief!

dodo69

Yes an eyesore. They have no access to sewage as the idiot who built them connected them up to a private sewage pumping station without permission so there is no easement to sell. Mind you they are worth more now than in 1999! It will take (or so I'm told in the fly) about £50,000 for the connection! So don't be tempted to buy.

dmxdave

dodo69 wrote: »

Yes an eyesore. They have no access to sewage as the idiot who built them connected them up to a private sewage pumping station without permission so there is no easement to sell. Mind you they are worth more now than in 1999! It will take (or so I'm told in the fly) about £50,000 for the connection! So don't be tempted to buy.

You could also use the public toilets and showers at the other end of the carpark lol :rotfl: :rotfl:

Mind you you might get a few funny looks if you forget your shower gel!

talksalot81

Why has most of this thread been culled?

EDIT: How very weird - it went down to being only 5 posts on one page and has mysteriously come back into existance in a longer form.

IvanOpinion

Maybe it has been merged with other similar threads ?

ivan