House price growth slowest since 2013 - Halifax

worldtraveller

The annual rate of growth in UK house prices has slowed to its lowest pace in three and a half years, according to the Halifax.

The UK's largest mortgage lender said prices increased by 5.1% in the year to February, the lowest since July 2013.

It means the rate of house price inflation has halved in just 11 months.

In March last year, house prices were increasing by 10% a year, according to the Halifax measure. The average price is now £219,949.

BBC News

Halifax Price Index (pdf)

setmefree2

Nationwide 1st March

UK house prices accelerated in February with property values rising by 4.5% in a year, the Nationwide has said.
The building society said that house prices were up by 0.6% compared with the previous month, bringing the cost of the average home to £205,846.

It said the outlook for the market was uncertain.
It is predicting a 2% rise in UK house prices over the course of the year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39126047

glasgowdan

And A Reuters poll of more than 30 property market economists and analysts published last month forecast growth in house prices of 2.5 percent this year, 2.3 percent in 2018 and 3 percent in 2019.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1683IR

padington

We're close to a tipping point, if we start going negative and the pundits start predicting negative years ahead, things could get very messy. Throw brexit into the mix and all bets are off.

I've been very bullish for years and for good reason but this time no one knows, brexit is a complete unknown and we are coming precariously close to a possible house price tipping point.

Only the swivel eyed anti European Tories would be talking this market up now. Proceed with caution. The best property owners will get is relatively minimal yearly increases, at worse we will have a complete mess on our hands.

GreatApe

Some of my EU tenants have given notice this year and are going back home. The rental market in zone 2 has crashed about 15% from the peak and prices are down about 5% from the peak.

Its too early to call it but as Padington says these things can feed off sentiment. The tax changes plus brexit could mean sometime this year we enter a bear market in London. However it won't be horrific I think it's more likely to be similar to the last one with about 10% down followed by 2-4 years of flat prices.

worldtraveller

GreatApe wrote: »

Some of my EU tenants have given notice this year and are going back home. The rental market in zone 2 has crashed about 15% from the peak and prices are down about 5% from the peak.

Its too early to call it but as Padington says these things can feed off sentiment. The tax changes plus brexit could mean sometime this year we enter a bear market in London. However it won't be horrific I think it's more likely to be similar to the last one with about 10% down followed by 2-4 years of flat prices.

With the uncertainty over Brexit and status, I would expect a lot of people to move back 'home'. This uncertaintly is likely to remain for some time, acting as a 'pull' home factor for many. Also, when you look, as an example, at the Polish economy, it is expected to grow over 3% in 2017, as it did in 2016. The same has been forecast for 2018 and 2019, supported by robust domestic demand, especially private consumption. As another 'sweetner', The Polish Government has introduced a £100 child benefit scheme regardless of earnings to get people to stay. OK, I appreciate that these people may be replaced by those from other EU countries, where things aren't so rosy, but the uncertainty still remains.

padington

worldtraveller wrote: »

With the uncertainty over Brexit and status, I would expect a lot of people to move back 'home'. This uncertaintly is likely to remain for some time, acting as a 'pull' home factor for many. Also, when you look, as an example, at the Polish economy, it is expected to grow over 3% in 2017, as it did in 2016. The same has been forecast for 2018 and 2019, supported by robust domestic demand, especially private consumption. As another 'sweetner', The Polish Government has introduced a £100 child benefit scheme regardless of earnings to get people to stay. OK, I appreciate that these people may be replaced by those from other EU countries, where things aren't so rosy, but the uncertainty still remains.

Weird because the poles are also fighting to let their people stay in the UK I thought. I guess there are multiple agenda's.

Catapa

glasgowdan wrote: »

And A Reuters poll of more than 30 property market economists and analysts published last month forecast growth in house prices of 2.5 percent this year, 2.3 percent in 2018 and 3 percent in 2019.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN1683IR

I am surprised that house prices continue to grow above inflation. A couple of years of growth just below the rate of inflation would be healthy for the UK, but difficult to achieve.

worldtraveller

GreatApe wrote: »

Some of my EU tenants have given notice this year and are going back home. The rental market in zone 2 has crashed about 15% from the peak and prices are down about 5% from the peak.

Its too early to call it but as Padington says these things can feed off sentiment. The tax changes plus brexit could mean sometime this year we enter a bear market in London. However it won't be horrific I think it's more likely to be similar to the last one with about 10% down followed by 2-4 years of flat prices.

Latest figures from Countrywide appear to show that rents in Britain have recorded their first annual drop for six years.

In February, the average rent in Britain was £921 a month, £5 lower than a year earlier, and the first annual decrease since 2011. They go on to say that rents are falling fastest in London, down 4.3% over the year to an average of £1,246 a month.

economic

worldtraveller wrote: »

Latest figures from Countrywide appear to show that rents in Britain have recorded their first annual drop for six years.

In February, the average rent in Britain was £921 a month, £5 lower than a year earlier, and the first annual decrease since 2011. They go on to say that rents are falling fastest in London, down 4.3% over the year to an average of £1,246 a month.

due to a combination of more people owning and people emmigrating?

westernpromise

Oversupply due to the 3% extra transaction tax this time last year, would be my guess. That brought a lot of transactions forward.