Investors must prepare their portfolios for the end of globalisation.

GreatApe

Conrad wrote: »

Global trade will continue, I did not say otherwise. My title was overly dramatic though. I've added an edit to the OP.


I did say -- 'This is NOT isolationism nor protectionism.'




An example of economic nationalism would be where our Govt had prepared to ensure British steel could be used in replacing our nuclear subs.


Trump is ensuring US steel will be used in the 2 new pipelines.




This does not imply global trade will end.

A steel plant might produce 3 million tons a year and a country like the UK needs about 20mtpa

A nuclear sub is about 8 hours steel production and you need replacements every 30 so only 10 minutes of annual steel production

What your talking is nonsense for politicians to grab headlines. Now if you were talking forcing steel plants to use and buy UK coking coal and UK iron ire, which exist but are inefficient, then you would be talking some significance.

davomcdave

GreatApe wrote: »

A steel plant might produce 3 million tons a year and a country like the UK needs about 20mtpa

A nuclear sub is about 8 hours steel production and you need replacements every 30 so only 10 minutes of annual steel production

What your talking is nonsense for politicians to grab headlines. Now if you were talking forcing steel plants to use and buy UK coking coal and UK iron ire, which exist but are inefficient, then you would be talking some significance.

It's post truth posting. Global trade is going to continue because without global trade Britain and everywhere else can't feed, clothe and provide itself with smart phones. Globalisation, or trade as its otherwise known, is basically irreversible because pretty much all countries have all sent vital production overseas or rely on other countries for the intellectual property to drive their manufacturing industry. The alternative is a massive drop in living standards that would be unacceptable in rich countries and devastating in poor ones.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

Your favoured model is that taught 30 years ago, we're moving on from it. Cannot believe people are wedded to this tired broken model.


There's a reason bi-lateral deals are made FAR more swiftly and generally turn out far more satisfactory than deals made with great lumbering blocs with diverse demands.


Are you familiar with the reasons EU trade deal take so long and often fail?

Like TTIP, the deal that Brexiteers said would help privatise the NHS. Should be able to get the NHS privatised quicker now then.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Trump is ensuring US steel will be used in the 2 new pipelines.

Nah he worded it such that they can use any steel they want, whilst making it look like he's big on localism. What'll the steel industry do once the pipelines are finished? Are the companies building the pipelines really going to be paying extra just to go American?

martinsurrey

GreatApe wrote: »

What your talking is nonsense for politicians to grab headlines. Now if you were talking forcing steel plants to use and buy UK coking coal and UK iron ire, which exist but are inefficient, then you would be talking some significance.

Yeah, with we stop importing the ore and the coal, or we may as well import the steel.

Lets get everyone back down the mines and get some more open casts going!

Steel would be much much more expensive and we'd have the joy of digging up the countryside again!

Thrugelmir

Linton wrote: »

For example will the UK population accept the inevitable demand from the US that we accept their agricultural exports - GM and industrialised farming on a grand scale?

We do anyway. Cargill quietly goes on about it's business.

michaels

Hmm, opens history books

1) financial crash
2) protectionism
3) national socialism
4) ...

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Investors must prepare their portfolios for the end of globalisation.
EDIT - well maybe not the end, but certainly some big changes


Trumps 'America First' strapline tells me that globalisation is to be replaced with Economic Nationalism.


The 'liberal' elite will of course detest this change, but the time has arrived when Governments require people with applied intelligence able to deliver worker dignity, not through old fashioned socialism and clumsy taxes, but with Economic Nationalism, meaning putting your peoples interests first regardless of the effect on other nations. This does not imply making enemies with everyone.
.

It is entirely possible to believe be one of the liberal elite and invest in your own personal interests. Politicians do it all the time.

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

50% of Americans earn less than in 1999.


Vast swathes of America were run down, jobs off shored, creating a mass of people without hope or dignity.

True

A similar discord is found in Britain, France and elsewhere. The current model of capitalism is broken and must and will be rapidly evolved.

Capitalism is broken so we need a new model of capitalism. Have you not argued that Socialism is also a failed model? If so why not a new model of that?

Change never comes from those satisfied with a current scene. 'Liberal' consensus echo-chamber dwellers seem last to know the reasons for mass of the population are dis-satisfied.

True, dissatisfaction motivates change. The question is do those who are dissatisfied know what change they want? Saying that you want to restrict or re-patriate immigration, reduce taxes, save the NHS, invest in the decaying industrial heartlands, rebuild manufacturing, end austerity; or whatever other the problem you want to go away is not a solution. My fear is that those who enact change in response to this stimulus will still not solve the problems they want change to magic away.