Interesting speech given by Carney today

Sapphire

Too little too late, I fear, but he is right. Globalisation has hurt a lot of people, hence the current unrest among those whose wages have fallen dramatically (a majority), and who do not have proper jobs or the prospects of any means to better themselves, with very many of the jobs that used to exist now gone to those who do them at a much cheaper rate.

I was just talking to my sister the other day, who was complaining that paying-in machines had just been installed in her local post office in Richmond, and that someone on the staff had said that 'only' two jobs had been lost as a result. I can see that with rises in technology, many jobs will no longer exist before long – this has already been happening for a long time, but there are more developments, such as 3D printing, that will accelerate the process.

We'll still need people who do specialised jobs and who are innovative thinkers, but I fear that jobs that can be done by rote, which used to be done by a majority of people, will go. The corporation owners will benefit, but what will happen to the growing population of the world, with huge numbers of children being born in the Middle East and Africa, to families that cannot afford to support them? Even the middle classes will disappear…

SF of the 1950s naively envisaged a time when we would all have loads of time for leisure due to robots taking over our jobs, and we would be living in a utopia. The reality will be quite different.

Perhaps there is a need for the financial global 'elites' that hold the majority of the world's wealth to spread it around – but this would take the agreement of all of them, and I fear they are too greedy to go for such an option.

The PC 'thinkers' have completely ignored these questions. Instead of considering how to achieve solutions to these difficulties, they live in a metropolitan bubble spouting forth their ideologies, which have nothing to do with the real needs of the people in most of the country, who are rejecting the PC politicians as these politicians have rejected them.

What do people think is the answer to all this?

Sapphire

Or perhaps you all think I'm nuts, in which case don't answer and :xmastree::idea:


It's just something that I've been mulling over for some time, so I wondered whether anyone else here had the same concerns…

wymondham

I've been watching 'Humans' on TV and can really see this occurring.... scary stuff!

westernpromise

Sapphire wrote: »

Too little too late, I fear, but he is right. Globalisation has hurt a lot of people, hence the current unrest among those whose wages have fallen dramatically (a majority), and who do not have proper jobs or the prospects of any means to better themselves, with very many of the jobs that used to exist now gone to those who do them at a much cheaper rate.

I was just talking to my sister the other day, who was complaining that paying-in machines had just been installed in her local post office in Richmond, and that someone on the staff had said that 'only' two jobs had been lost as a result. I can see that with rises in technology, many jobs will no longer exist before long – this has already been happening for a long time, but there are more developments, such as 3D printing, that will accelerate the process.

We'll still need people who do specialised jobs and who are innovative thinkers, but I fear that jobs that can be done by rote, which used to be done by a majority of people, will go. The corporation owners will benefit, but what will happen to the growing population of the world, with huge numbers of children being born in the Middle East and Africa, to families that cannot afford to support them? Even the middle classes will disappear…

SF of the 1950s naively envisaged a time when we would all have loads of time for leisure due to robots taking over our jobs, and we would be living in a utopia. The reality will be quite different.

Perhaps there is a need for the financial global 'elites' that hold the majority of the world's wealth to spread it around – but this would take the agreement of all of them, and I fear they are too greedy to go for such an option.

The PC 'thinkers' have completely ignored these questions. Instead of considering how to achieve solutions to these difficulties, they live in a metropolitan bubble spouting forth their ideologies, which have nothing to do with the real needs of the people in most of the country, who are rejecting the PC politicians as these politicians have rejected them.

What do people think is the answer to all this?

This is the Luddite mentality though. They thought the same thing: machines that made cheap fabric would replace expensive weavers, and all the weavers would then starve. Instead, clothes suddenly became cheaper than in history.

Someone rather dull that I was at school with went on to make several million by starting up and selling a company that simply bought advertising space for its clients on the internet. That job was inconceivable when we were 15. The internet didn't exist, and neither did the idea that there would be a PC in every pocket through which advertising could be directed. That's in less than 40 years from something completely unimaginable. I struggle to think of a time in history that has been similar. The French Revolution if you were a soldier, I guess, or the Industrial Revolution.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Jobs which could or can be done by rote rather than requiring real specialist skills have been declining due to automation for years - but so have some more-specialised and more-skilled jobs too.

Watching Countryfile this weekend I saw the proposed new farming machinery which removes the requirement for pickers of quite a variety of produce for example.
Look at the numbers involved in car manufacture, these are tiny in comparison to years ago but with larger-than-ever production numbers.
Or in my fathers skilled (to degree level) job in textiles; his knowledge and skill earned through years of study and experience has been completely replaced by computer programmes.

This incidence of this type of situation can only continue as technology progresses and as long as outsourcing manufacture to countries with cheaper labour continues, this combines to increase the rate of disparity in wealth.

Here in the UK people like to grumble about those working in low paid jobs (often needing Tax Credits to supplement poor incomes) yet the reality is that there are no longer great numbers of skilled (and hence higher-paid) jobs.
We should at this stage and in this country perhaps be grateful that - despite immigration and despite the loss of so much of our traditional industry - employment remains as strong as it appears to be.

As an example, unemployment in the EU area in August this year averaged 10.6% compared to the UK's 4.8%. *1
I won't even go into the employment numbers of younger people - which is quite shocking TBH.

So while globalisation has affected us here in the UK I'm certain it effects some countries far more with the continent of Africa providing many examples of this.
The EU for example allows imports of whatever in return for EU farmers dumping excess produce, which forces these African countries to sell their own produce at a loss. *2

So, what IS the answer?
I don't know - though if someone would like to fund me to research the subject and provide guidance I'm game!
And there's the real problem.
No-one is yet willing to accept that this IS a problem.
Meanwhile global corporations continue to grow and leech wealth out of the poorest in the planet AND increase inequality globally. *3

Then people still wonder why (for just one example) so many Africans risk their lives crossing the Med.

*1 - https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/


* 2 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/the-european-union-is-an-ongoing-disaster-for-africa

* 3 - http://inequality.org/global-inequality/

westernpromise

If I had to guess I would say that the kind of jobs likely to be automated are just those that people think are sure things today. Accountancy, the conveyancing element of law, and so on. It would be an amusing irony if people with arts degrees did best in the job market over the next 50 years because those with engineering degrees who can't write a sentence or dress themselves have automated themselves out of existence.

Conrad

Sapphire wrote: »

Or perhaps you all think I'm nuts, in which case don't answer and :xmastree::idea:


It's just something that I've been mulling over for some time, so I wondered whether anyone else here had the same concerns…

I did a thread on the comming next industrial revolution a while back in Discussion Time, so you're not alone in being concerned about globalisation and an accelerated change in terms of machines replacing Human workers - automated Supermarket tills for example.




There's a crucial element underpinning all this, and when I mention this, money saver types get a bit disgruntled, and it is this; Underlying these massive changes is our desire for best value. Yes we can moan about bosses paying themselves too much, but that's a drop in the ocean, the real issue is we all want everything for nothing, hence offshoring, globalisation and automation.


Globalisation brings down end user prices. Why pay a UK worker to proof read or deliver TV subtitles, when you can pay someone in India 10 x less?




I go out of my way to buy British - but I'm not immune to foreign made bargains also.


So if we are not willing to pay a bit more, what do we expect?

Conrad

westernpromise wrote: »

This is the Luddite mentality though. They thought the same thing: machines that made cheap fabric would replace expensive weavers, and all the weavers would then starve. Instead, clothes suddenly became cheaper than in history.

.

Yes this is the standard retort, but if I might politely say is probably not correct in terms of the rapid pace of change underway right now.


Think about UK newspapers. Any increase in circulation now (very difficult) largely benefits a handful of tech stockholders in the USA as the vast bulk of advertising revenues now goes to Google and Facebook.


So the Zuckerberg Octupus gets ever more wealth whilst a mass of others get less.


Same with UBER - what was a transaction between a London cabbie and a passenger, is not intruded upon by the grasping hands of a few wealth stock holders (holders of capital) in California.


Make no mistake this is accelerated capitalism - those few with capital get to disrupt ever more transactional process's in order to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest of us


Right now the 'rocket scientists' working deep inside the Banks are high fiving as they dream up yet another way of ensuring they get richer by intruding on the commercial lives of everyday people.
They want large Accountancy firms to have skeleton staff and AI to take over - once more a minority of capital holders rewarded.

DavidF

I find it surprising that at this stage "most" people are not working from home thus reducing congestion. It seems we tend to go more for replace the human rather than assist (Which is what home working would do).

Eventually this "system" will just implode on itself. The "economic model" that the global world follows relies on continued growth.....History and a little bit of though actually shows us that continued growth is not sustainable.

We very nearly went over the cliff in 2008.....Read the memoirs of people who were present during the week long frantic period when there was no such thing as a rescue package. GB had consulted about the possibility of troops on the streets.....IT was THAT close. Apparently we were 24 hours or less away from banks just shutting their doors. One can only imagine how that would end ? Nobody getting paid, Would people even go to work if they can put food on the table, fill up the car ? Turn on a light ? It is said one of the biggest hedge fund managers got so spooked by what he knew that he went and bought a working farm to ensure he and his family would "survive".
I honest DO think something along the lines above will eventually happen. One can only hope that there is a bright young mind out there somewhere that has worked it all out.

kabayiri

Conrad wrote: »

...
Same with UBER - what was a transaction between a London cabbie and a passenger, is not intruded upon by the grasping hands of a few wealth stock holders (holders of capital) in California.


Make no mistake this is accelerated capitalism - those few with capital get to disrupt ever more transactional process's in order to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest of us


Right now the 'rocket scientists' working deep inside the Banks are high fiving as they dream up yet another way of ensuring they get richer by intruding on the commercial lives of everyday people.
They want large Accountancy firms to have skeleton staff and AI to take over - once more a minority of capital holders rewarded.

There is a power battle going on right now, which many are not aware of.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-capital-city-votes-to-keep-fingerprinting-for-uber-lyft-drivers-1462796972

The city of Austin, Texas is the largest US city where Uber does not have a presence. It's an interesting article.

What is notable about Austin is that a number of alternatives have sprung up providing the function Uber would have, but democratising the process and putting more money into the pockets of the driver.

Cakeguts

What I would like to add is the number of jobs created by the private rented sector of housing. Gas certificates. How many people who own their homes have their boiler serviced every year? Rented housing employs decorators, electricians, plumbers, carpet fitters, kitchen fitters and cleaners. I don't think that the UK government realises how many people earn a living doing repairs to and managing rented properties. It is an industry that benefits tradespeople. Until housing is standardised in layout and size you can't replace tradespeople with robots.

The country needs more people with skilled trades and fewer people with degrees in film studies and media and all the other silly degrees that people study for. Why have we got builders from other regions of the EU undercutting in price UK trades?