I have a growing feeling that the EU is falling apart

HornetSaver

If the EU is going to collapse, would it not therefore be in our interests to string out the Brexit process?

I'm not talking about Remaining through the back door.

I'm saying, if there is a consensus that the entire thing is going to fall apart, as 99% of Leave voters on these forums are asserting, wouldn't the best course be to make good use of the time between now and when that happens (using the inevitability of our departure to pour petrol on that fire) to negotiate favourable deals with the rest of the world, rather than rush them for the sake of having them in place in a two year, three month timeframe?

The only justification for rushing Brexit is the fear (entirely justified, I'll freely admit), that the longer the whole thing takes, the greater the chances that a spanner will be thrown into the works to derail it. But if the EU is destined to collapse in a short timeframe, that argument doesn't really hold.

rifat490

To simplify the complexity of the narrative in one-word syllables was actually a success. The book works far longer in extent.

I'd love to see a movie made of a weekend in October 2009 when the UK business practice was maintained. Must have been an abounding anxious 48 hours.
“A man is wealthy who breathes upon what he has. A man is weak who lives against what is happening. A reasonable man lives inside his interest, and collects for ‘a stormy day’.”

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

If the EU is going to collapse, would it not therefore be in our interests to string out the Brexit process?

For what purpose. Doesn't address the UK's issues.

Linton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

.....
I'd love to see a film made of weekend in October 2008 when the UK banking system was saved. Must have been a fraught tense 48 hours.

Alistair Darling's book on his time as Chancellor is worth reading.

Electrum

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I thought that myth had been detonated. :doh:

Wouldn't get over excited about everyone elses problems when the UK has enough of it's own.

DB is getting worse, it affects the UK as it affects the entire world.

Electrum

steampowered wrote: »

I think you are wrong to suggest that a banking crisis would lead to further break-up of the EU.

In fact I think it is the opposite. A crisis would increase support for further integration. Greece has done by the far the worst and yet the figures I could find seem to say that a staggering 75% of Greeks support remaining in the EU.

Also, in the UK the Royal Bank of Scotland just failed a stress test? These problems are in no way just linked to the EU.

That is a stupid argument.

Its like a group of businesses working together, one of them is doing really bad going further into debt, and the other hard working businesses want to distance themselves from the toxic relationship. But the failing business asks to work even closer together, of course they want that.

nkomp18

Interesting how you view european countries as time bombs but somehow you don't consider the UK to be one massive about-to-explode time bomb itself.

Currently 1.8 TRILLION pounds, the UK national debt grows at a rate of £5,170 per second! It is mostly supported by the high GDP which is heavily supported by the Financial services industry where London is the world's largest financial centre and in case you haven't heard, after Brexit they are considering to move away in order to preserve the previous EU passport that allows them to operate.

If that happens, UK is going to be far worse than Italy and Greece combined. You are looking at a potential recession that will last decades.
So, yeah, good that we escaped from failing EU.... and now we get to stay in failing UK. And as an added bonus, UK will be isolated without the backup of 27 other countries sticking together to get out of this rut.

kabayiri

nkomp18 wrote: »

...
And as an added bonus, UK will be isolated without the backup of 27 other countries sticking together to get out of this rut.

I could buy into this if I saw plenty of evidence of it working.

But...I just don't.

Take the refugee crisis. Why are half the EU countries putting up the shutters leaving the burden on the other half?

That's just going to lead to further division.

You could perhaps argue that the EU core, centred around Germany, has stuck by Greece with their Euro woes. But how is that perceived by Greek voters? It looks like Germany owns their economy now.

Is it easier for 27 countries to get out of a rut, or 10 stronger countries? The bigger something becomes the more difficult it is to satisfy all parties.

kabayiri

Linton wrote: »

Alistair Darling's book on his time as Chancellor is worth reading.

OT. Maybe we need a separate thread on good books which are economy related?

AG47

nkomp18 wrote: »

Interesting how you view european countries as time bombs but somehow you don't consider the UK to be one massive about-to-explode time bomb itself.

Currently 1.8 TRILLION pounds, the UK national debt grows at a rate of £5,170 per second! It is mostly supported by the high GDP which is heavily supported by the Financial services industry where London is the world's largest financial centre and in case you haven't heard, after Brexit they are considering to move away in order to preserve the previous EU passport that allows them to operate.

If that happens, UK is going to be far worse than Italy and Greece combined. You are looking at a potential recession that will last decades.
So, yeah, good that we escaped from failing EU.... and now we get to stay in failing UK. And as an added bonus, UK will be isolated without the backup of 27 other countries sticking together to get out of this rut.

Excellent post. But you can't say the uk is in worse position than Greece or Italy because we can print more currency. They could just type in this many trillions of pounds into their bank accounts and spend it how they want. Those who joined the euro can't do that.

It's the pound sterling that is the ticking time bomb, but then every unbacked fiat currency is in the same boat since 1971