market predictions.....

Davesnave

Luke_123 wrote: »

i look forward to reading your thoughts, thanks

Luke

Who do you think you are, Derren Brown?

Go on then; what am I thinking? :cool:

brit1234

bobbymotors wrote: »

It's a good question.

But IMO, whilst money is so cheap to borrow and whilst everyone and his wife want to come and live here I can see no short term 'correction'

we are an island, there is only a limited amount of non expandable space. Increasing population and finite(ish) supply and cheap money = high house prices.

Then why did property prices suddenly start falling in 2008? There was huge stimulus to stop this.

The real reason prices went so high was the cheap supply of money like QE, 0.5% interest rates, funding for lending and Help to buy combined with all the foreign buyers.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

brit1234 wrote: »

Then why did property prices suddenly start falling in 2008? There was huge stimulus to stop this.

The real reason prices went so high was the cheap supply of money like QE, 0.5% interest rates, funding for lending and Help to buy combined with all the foreign buyers.

Maybe we'll see 50% off by xmas as per your previous infamous prediction....

What happened there Brit.... have prices increased exponentially instead?

You're a slightly more sensible poster than Crashy but almost equally as deluded. You need to remeber that what you wish to happen isn't necessarily what's likely to happen.

AndyBSG

Barely 10% of the UK is actually built on with just 6.8% classed as 'urban' and even that 6.8% includes things like parks, allotments, etc.

House prices aren't being driven up due to a lack of land to build on but due to the number of buildings being built being much lower than the growth of population.

cloo

One thing I will say is that waiting for the market to collapse is not a good strategy for buying, especially in London/SE. House crashes wouldn't be an issue if it meant that everything got cheaper, and then suddenly lots of people could buy a house who couldn't before; it's just not that simple. A whole host of other things happen when the market falls to make buying difficult (lack of mortgage products, lack of houses on the market) - and if houses were way out of people's reach before a crash, they usually still remain out of reach afterwards, just marginally less far.

We bought our first place together in London on the eve of the last crash in July 2007 (and we knew it was a peak)... sold it 8 years later for about 40% more than we paid for it, so that's 'crashes' in London for you. One agent valuing the flat said there wasn't really any crash, it was just a bit slow in 2008-2009. But obviously other parts of the country have been affected differently.

nubbins

This is spot on, where I am in Wokingham house prices did not really drop significantly they just stayed on the market longer with the odd 5 or 10k reduction. The main problem was the severe lack of houses coming onto the market, people just battened down the hatches and when the market did start picking up in 2013/14 there was a coiled spring effect and prices have gone nuts for 2 or 3 years to the tune of 50%.
In the SE or London I certainly would not be waiting for a crash to happen as you could end up on here in a few years time posting doom and gloom predictions under the username of "Crashy II"

danslenoir

It all comes down to access to credit, as the vast majority of people require it to be able to buy a house.

If people have access to credit to enable them to pay high purchase prices, people will buy houses at high purchase prices.

If access is stifled though e.g. unaffordably high interest rates, then prices are going to only have one direction of travel (I'll give you a clue: it isn't up).

Crashy_Time

Philuk wrote: »

Sorry but your population density argument is vastly overplayed/ over simplistic, it s merely a fraction of the price equation, I mentioned Canada and Australia, but I could also name Singapore.

France have very accommodating law surrounding tenancy, and yes, do build about twice the amount of houses than UK manage to achieve.

But the major difference is that our successive government used the HPI as a electoral weapon, there was never so few houses built than under the Cameron government, while this same gov launched the help to buy and other tax funded initiative to prop the market. With the change of demography will come a softer approach to HPI. And then, the argument of space and supply will suddenly lose its momentum.

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/buy-let-will-dampen-15-20-2018/#.WAE2giwzXct

Crashy_Time

cloo wrote: »

One thing I will say is that waiting for the market to collapse is not a good strategy for buying, especially in London/SE. House crashes wouldn't be an issue if it meant that everything got cheaper, and then suddenly lots of people could buy a house who couldn't before; it's just not that simple. A whole host of other things happen when the market falls to make buying difficult (lack of mortgage products, lack of houses on the market) - and if houses were way out of people's reach before a crash, they usually still remain out of reach afterwards, just marginally less far.

We bought our first place together in London on the eve of the last crash in July 2007 (and we knew it was a peak)... sold it 8 years later for about 40% more than we paid for it, so that's 'crashes' in London for you. One agent valuing the flat said there wasn't really any crash, it was just a bit slow in 2008-2009. But obviously other parts of the country have been affected differently.

Did you miss the bit where central banks dropped rates to near zero and used QE to inflate stock markets and assets like property? London was obviously a massive beneficiary of this, but the next "crash" happens when the PTB can`t keep this sort of intervention going (low rates are already hurting banks) or the population just gets sick of paying more than half of their income for housing and vote to stop it, we are already seeing the clamour for a new political/economic direction in the Brexit/Trump effect?

glasgowdan

You just honestly don't care what you post do you? What's it like, being so oblivious that you don't realise the shakiness of all of your links, and how that affects people's perceptions of your credibility? I bet it's a rosy and happy sort of life!

Your internet search history must be scary reading.