Why Britain and the EU will scuplt a good trade deal

Conrad

The EU has 104 trade deals, 53 (depending how you count them) of which many are free trade deals with mainly small states, including plenty the size of San Marino. The Single Market membership deal we have now adds an insignificant value to GDP. The new deal will give very slightly lessor access, but our new autonomy globally, tailor made local democracy and decisions, with no EU fees to pay and cheaper currency means all round we will be far better off. 2012 EU stats show Japan exports almost the same value of services into the EU as we, with NO TRADE DEAL.


http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Trade_in_services,_2008_and_2013_(1)_(billion_EUR)_YB15.png


The pessimists assert the UK is impotent and thus will be handed down an immovable and poor deal from the mighty EU. A begging dog, rather than a powerful influence in the world* with much the EU needs.

(*Canadian Trade Agency is opening an office in London, and the press release says "The agency is confident the UK will remain a global gateway for international business despite the short term difficulties.
Plans for an EDC UK office were unveiled in early 2015 with the goal to take advantage of the UK’s links to Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
In his interview, Dunlope said that the agency took a “long-term” view on the strength of the UK economy and that it was able to see past the destabilising effect of the negotiations surrounding UK’s exit from the EU').


The relentless Bremoaner gloom is predicated on this bizarre notion the EU wants nothing from Britain, indeed Zoe Williams on The DP said British people will accept paying more for German goods, but Germans need nothing from us and so have no need to pay more for our goods, thus tariffs would harm only us!!

We hold many aces in the negotiation such as access to our rich fishing grounds and our considerable military projection**, and in addition the critical point the Chicken Lickens miss is that any hampering of trade will badly affect the core exporting nations with knock-on effects to unemployment and borrowing rates.

We would collect double the value of tariffs as we buy twice that we sell, and could plough this revenue into British enterprise.
If UK exports are harmed, this provides the UK with less revenue to buy German and French goods, who wins?

Banks will not re-locate into the EU en-mass, here are some of the reasons;

1) Moody’s yesterday said Banks will cope perfectly well
2) Banks can establish a brass plate on a desk in Dublin, simple
3) The City relies on each players own personal social network, face to face socialising over many years, and information harvested gives one the edge. You just cannot up-sticks to windy Frankfurt and talk to a lamp post. Furthermore the City is a hive of synergy with all the specialists in one place.

4) Equivalence will apply to the likes of Japan, and will obviously apply to British FS institutions, already aligned with the EU
5) Many institutions such as Aviva are already present in the EU, and will easily manage the transition and wont be leaving the dynamic, light touch profitable UK
6) Japan sells a similar value of services into the EU, with no trade deal at all!
7) FS firms would be very reluctant to leave ‘light-touch’, less intrusive UK Government


**
NEWSNIGHT – THE UK’S MILITARY ACE;
22 MINUTES IN – MILITARY ANGLE


http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07w4z4y/newsnight-14092016