The Next Crash

[Deleted User]

pop_gun wrote: »

I wouldn't worry about China. They have a $3trn surplus. They're running huge deficits in their own currency because everyone else is doing the same. Why should it be fiscally responsible in a world that's not.

As for the next crash. I suspect it will be caused by the artificially low oil price. The Saudis and OPEC economies will be on the verge of bankruptcy, forcing the Saudis and others to secretly sell a quantity of their oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar. This will undermine the petrodollar and the U.S. economy. This will affect the world economy given the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency.

I entirely agree with that, my suspicions are that the coming crash will be sparked by the $ no longer being the worlds currency. And sadly I doubt that day is that far off.

Thrugelmir

pop_gun wrote: »

The Saudis and OPEC economies will be on the verge of bankruptcy, forcing the Saudis and others to secretly sell a quantity of their oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar.

Perhaps they'll simply dump other assets that they own. Such as a high % of Mayfair, a few ports etc.

mwpt

pop_gun wrote: »

As for the next crash. I suspect it will be caused by the artificially low oil price.

How can the oil price be artificially low?

It can be artificially high by the OPEC nations agreeing to implement artificial scarcity.

westernpromise

venison wrote: »

I entirely agree with that, my suspicions are that the coming crash will be sparked by the $ no longer being the worlds currency. And sadly I doubt that day is that far off.

It's a brave man who bets against the US economy.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

I really miss Generali, antrobus et al. Argentina is now an example we should aspire to. Why not Zimbabwe?

Good grief.

Do a different set of economic laws apply to a your beloved group of white christian european countries than other national and racial groups or is it just your greedy self interested bigotry that blinds you to rational analysis?

Thrugelmir

mwpt wrote: »

How can the oil price be artificially low?

It can be artificially high by the OPEC nations agreeing to implement artificial scarcity.

The US producers amongst others don't belong to OPEC. As a consequence OPEC no longer controls the oil price. Times have changed.

mwpt

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The US producers amongst others don't belong to OPEC. As a consequence OPEC no longer controls the oil price. Times have changed.

Errr, sure, but what has this got to do with my question?

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

How can the oil price be artificially low?

It can be artificially high by the OPEC nations agreeing to implement artificial scarcity.

there is no 'natural' price for oil as the supply side is decided by political and not cost / economic considerations

so it can be 'high ' by artificially ' restricting supply
or it can be low by turning on the pumps full blast

many people consider that is exactly what Saudi have done over the last year of so for various political reasons.

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

there is no 'natural' price for oil as the supply side is decided by political and not cost / economic considerations

so it can be 'high ' by artificially ' restricting supply
or it can be low by turning on the pumps full blast

many people consider that is exactly what Saudi have done over the last year of so for various political reasons.

Well, exactly.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

Well, exactly.

yes exactly
the price of oil can be artificially high
and artificially low