House price rise boosts British wealth

cells

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Did you catch the despatches programme on C4 this week?

It examined these numbers, specifically the 100k pledge from the government in 2011.

You've got two sets of data
1. The government figures
2. The reality

The government figures simply assume that the houses that could be built on land sold by the MOD have been built. Indeed, they even included land that was already sold and already developed for other purposes (a boat yard for example was counted as something like 14 houses, where not a single house stands). They then assume that the footprint = x houses, regardless of the actual number (if any) houses built.

So in one case, the government figures stated 16 houses have been built. Standing right outside of those houses, you see 3 have been built. 3 very plush, very large, gated houses. There was simply room for 16, so 16 are counted.

The reality suggests out of the 100k homes, 1,650 will actually come to fruition.

So depending on where you get your 3 million new houses from, you could be wildly out. And a finger in the air guess suggests you are. 3 million new houses would require infrastructure equaling about 2-3 new Birmingham cities. Clearly that hasn't happened.

dont be so stupid

council collect council tax from existing properties, not imaginary ones, so the government has the data

the utilities connect homes to the grid (this is how some countries track new builds) and they connect only real homes not imaginary ones. also statistical mathematics is a very powerful tool. The ons can do surveys to figure out the data

The councils also keep track of the stock within their area

I did not watch the program but I suspect you misunderstood what it was on about

Graham_Devon

cells wrote: »

dont be so stupid

I did not watch the program but I suspect you misunderstood what it was on about

I suggest you watch it before claiming people don't understand it's content and call them stupid because it doesn't fit your personal viewpoint.

It's on 4OD.

And I note you ignored the bit about the infrastructure 3 million homes in 15 years would need. Which was your claim. Where have these 3 million homes gone? It's a heck of a lot of homes to build without noticing the blot on the UK.

On a second note, a lot of those (as of yet, unevidenced) 3m homes will have been refurbishments and re-builds, not additional homes as you made out.

westernpromise

Why don't we just kill everyone who pays higher rate tax? They're all crooks. It would solve everything.

BobQ

mrlegend123 wrote: »

The wealth has been artificially created by central bankers. The housing market has been manipulated. That's my point.....

It is imaginary wealth. The housing market is worth more than the stock market.

Utter ruubbish. Unless you want to return to cave dwelling we need houses. A house has a value because someone is willing to pay for it.

If your point is that builders/planners have made houses more expensive by restricting their supply, I agree that there is some truth in that. But we still have a demand for housing and it will always have an intrinsic value for as long as we live in them. This is not imaginary and how you can blame the Bank of England (let alone a foreign central bank) for the UK housing cost beggars belief.

cells

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I suggest you watch it before claiming people don't understand it's content and call them stupid because it doesn't fit your personal viewpoint.

think of it objectively, a person watching a TV program made by a modern dance graduate puts forward the idea that the government and the statistical bodies are grossly manipulating and over reporting house building and population. Does that not sound stupid?

And I note you ignored the bit about the infrastructure 3 million homes in 15 years would need. Which was your claim. Where have these 3 million homes gone? It's a heck of a lot of homes to build without noticing the blot on the UK.

new homes arent a 'blot on the uk'

Top 10 builders by latest year # of units

1. Barratt Development Plc 16,447
2. Persimmon Plc 13,509
3. Taylor Wimpey Plc 12,454
4. Bellway Plc 7,752
5. Redrow Plc 4,022
6. Bovis Home Group Plc 3,635
7. The Berkeley Group Holdings Plc 3,355
8. Galliford Try Plc 2,177
9. Crest Nicholson Plc 2,725
10. Bloor Homes Limited 2,231

That is about 70,000 units a year just from the big 10 (over 1 million units just from them if you multiply by 15 years). There are hundreds more builders

On a second note, a lot of those (as of yet, unevidenced) 3m homes will have been refurbishments and re-builds, not additional homes as you made out.

no dumbo. the figures are net. eg if a council knocks down 1000 and builds 2000 in its place, the figures are +1000 net



so in short, your position is that its a conspiracy theory :T

SailorSam

BobQ wrote: »

Lots of things are inreresting. Do you have some point to make?

I can't understand when anyone starts a thread by just posting a link, and leaving the rest of the forum to talk about it.
Op if you want to talk about your link........ then talk about it. Start the discussion by telling us what you think about it.

Graham_Devon

cells wrote: »

think of it objectively, a person watching a TV program made by a modern dance graduate puts forward the idea that the government and the statistical bodies are grossly manipulating and over reporting house building and population. Does that not sound stupid?

I don't even know where to start with all these assumptions.

You haven't watched the programe, but seem to know about it's content better than those who have. You know better than the journalists, those acting on the FOI requests (i.e. the councils themselves), government ministers, the MOD and those who stood right outside the completed site that had, on government documents, 16 completed plots, but only 3 stood there. Maybe you should write in and tell them where the other 13 were hidden. The owners of the 3 hours may like to know about the other 13 too.

You are making figures up to suit, simply extrapolating one years figures over 15 years (and still not being even close to your suggested 3m homes, indeed, not even close to half way).

And to top all of that off, you are throwing names around.

I'll leave you to it. This place really has become the polar opposite of the HPC forum.

cells

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't even know where to start with all these assumptions.

You haven't watched the programe, but seem to know about it's content better than those who have. You know better than the journalists, those acting on the FOI requests (i.e. the councils themselves), government ministers, the MOD and those who stood right outside the completed site that had, on government documents, 16 completed plots, but only 3 stood there. Maybe you should write in and tell them where the other 13 were hidden. The owners of the 3 hours may like to know about the other 13 too.

I dont intend to watch that program, they or you are grossly wrong. Even if they have some insight into one site it doesn't mean its translate across all sites.

your suggestion is that not only are new build numbers wrong, they are grossly wrong. Not only do you think the figure of 3 million homes built since 2000 are wrong, you think even 1 million is grossly wrong.

I am afraid the onus is on you to prove this not for me to disprove a conspricy theory

You are making figures up to suit, simply extrapolating one years figures over 15 years (and still not being even close to your suggested 3m homes, indeed, not even close to half way).

I provided the figures for the top 10 builders and there are literially hundreds more builders who build from 1 unit to 2000 units each. The top 10 alone seem to be building ~70k units a year

If you like you can go and look up their annual reports its freely available in the internet age.

This place really has become the polar opposite of the HPC forum.

that pit of confirmation bias?
Anyone with alternative views are banned, so you get the extreme touting their extremely wrong views.

Graham_Devon

So basically, you are right, unless proven wrong.

But you won't even look at the evidence....in this case watch the TV programme. According to you, without having a clue what was said, they are wrong, whatever they stated and whatever government documents they had uncovered? The FOI requests were wrong? The 3 physical housing standing where its stated 16 were built, is wrong?

I agree with you, don't watch it, it'll burst your bubble.

Secondly, it's up to me to disprove your own made up figure of £3m homes? Not for you to prove your figure of £3m homes? You are right unless I spend my time to prove your own statement wrong?

It's normally up to the person stating fact to prove said fact, not for everyone else to run around proving them wrong.

I didn't realise things had changed. Pardon me.

westernpromise

This place really has become the polar opposite of the HPC forum.

If so, good. That would be a good place to be. The opposite of frothing pottiness has to be an improvement.