Bloomberg: investment banks to begin moving jobs following Art 50

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AFF8879 wrote: »

I am just saying people who think banks will just up sticks and leave, then resume normal business completely unaffected within a few years are very naive...

I think many of the Brexiters on here don't seem to understand the nature of the economy.

Nobody has ever claimed all banks will leave, all financial services companies will cease paying taxes, all trade with Europe will cease, all jobs reliant on EU trade will be lost, etc.

Clearly that would be absurd.

But all it takes is a few percent less trade with Europe, a few percent less tax being paid by financial services, a few percent of jobs being transferred, for the multiplier effect to kick in and the country to be very deeply stuffed indeed.

The economic crisis of 2008 saw falls in GDP of only around 6%.

That caused immense human suffering, well over a million additional jobs lost, tens of thousands of small businesses going bankrupt, people losing homes and life savings en-masse.

In the event of the 'hard Brexit' so many on here want such falls in GDP are almost guaranteed.... In the event of us staying in the Single Market and nothing much changing such falls are pretty much inconceivable. In the event of some hybrid deal in-between the negative impacts would likely be somewhere in-between.

But it's risible to suggest that small changes in terms of GDP% would have anything less than huge changes to ordinary people.

Every one percent of GDP equates to hundreds of thousands of jobs, many tens of billions of tax revenue, billions in NHS funding, etc.

Kohoutek

Masomnia wrote: »

I work in HR for a global bank, and doing a restructuring in the UK is a huge undertaking, nevermind across Europe. If they don't have to do it they won't.

So passporting is a factor, but with the Swiss and the US doing it without membership of the single market I don't see why we can't come to some agreement.

The Swiss and US banks do it by passporting in from the UK...

Hintza

Aye, but Hamish you think it is still about the money. It isn't and never was.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Hintza wrote: »

Aye, but Hamish you think it is still about the money. It isn't and never was.

Try telling that to hundreds of thousands of people after they lose their jobs - rather than getting the higher wages they were promised by the Brexit campaign.

Or the woman on Sky news who said she'd "go mad" if there wasn't now £350m a week more for the NHS as "that's why she voted out".

People voted 'leave' for a variety of reasons - for many it was absolutely about the money - and how do you think they'll react when they find out they were lied to?

Thrugelmir

Kohoutek wrote: »

Oh dear, you are very naive.

The issue is that if we don't retain passporting, the banks cannot serve their clients in the EU. That is a very material business issue.

See leaked Deutsche bank board briefing if you don't believe me:

DB itself faces huge financial pressures ( aka RBS) to scale back it's balance sheet. The once mighty are slipping backwards.

Herzlos

AFF8879 wrote: »

Londons talent pool simply cannot be replicated instantly in any other European city, this would take decades....

At what they are being paid, I'm sure they'll have no difficulty finding London staff moving to another European city, since we're talking about ones that are within at most about a 2 hour flight from Heathrow. We're talking about people relocating to Dublin or Paris here, not Outer Mongolia.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think many of the Brexiters on here don't seem to understand the nature of the economy.

Nobody has ever claimed all banks will leave, all financial services companies will cease paying taxes, all trade with Europe will cease, all jobs reliant on EU trade will be lost, etc.

Clearly that would be absurd.

But all it takes is a few percent less trade with Europe, a few percent less tax being paid by financial services, a few percent of jobs being transferred, for the multiplier effect to kick in and the country to be very deeply stuffed indeed.

The economic crisis of 2008 saw falls in GDP of only around 6%.

That caused immense human suffering, well over a million additional jobs lost, tens of thousands of small businesses going bankrupt, people losing homes and life savings en-masse.

In the event of the 'hard Brexit' so many on here want such falls in GDP are almost guaranteed.... In the event of us staying in the Single Market and nothing much changing such falls are pretty much inconceivable. In the event of some hybrid deal in-between the negative impacts would likely be somewhere in-between.

But it's risible to suggest that small changes in terms of GDP% would have anything less than huge changes to ordinary people.

Every one percent of GDP equates to hundreds of thousands of jobs, many tens of billions of tax revenue, billions in NHS funding, etc.

Oh - and you were doing so well until you hit that part I highlight.;)
How good of you it is to attempt education of those who don't understand - but your attempt is flawed.
By negativity, as usual.

Firstly you may well be correct that if we do not or cannot replace such supposedly lost European trade and jobs with that from elsewhere there will be consequences.
HOWEVER you are making gross assumptions - not leastly that there will indeed be these lost European trade & jobs.
It has not yet happened and may never happen.

Secondly (as a result of the above) such falls in GDP are by no means guaranteed.
For example, should the EU become embroiled in whatever disaster currently waiting in the wings (be it migrants, failing banks or whatever) then the UK stands a very good chance of being viewed as the "wise man" by investors and the markets.
The consequences of which would (as you know only too well) be a tremendous boost to the economy of the UK.

Like many others, I believe that a Great Britain following Brexit can flourish.
Indeed, WILL flourish.

westernpromise

Masomnia wrote: »

I work in HR for a global bank, and doing a restructuring in the UK is a huge undertaking, nevermind across Europe. If they don't have to do it they won't.

So passporting is a factor, but with the Swiss and the US doing it without membership of the single market I don't see why we can't come to some agreement.

And Japan. And China. And Singapore. And Dubai. And India. Etc.

westernpromise

Herzlos wrote: »

At what they are being paid, I'm sure they'll have no difficulty finding London staff moving to another European city, since we're talking about ones that are within at most about a 2 hour flight from Heathrow. We're talking about people relocating to Dublin or Paris here, not Outer Mongolia.

I think you seriously underestimate the attractiveness of London as a place for people to live with their families. What second language would be most useful one for your kids to learn - English or German? Which is your spouse likeliest already to speak? If you're well paid in London you're going to want compensation for having to move to Germany or France.

And you may also be overestimating the attractiveness of places like Paris, which pulverises you with taxes, and hence their ability to attract or furnish staff. The number of workers in the UK finance sector exceeds the total workforce of Frankfurt, for example.

Finally, think about contract law. Britain has it, everyone else either doesn't or if they do have no courts experienced in applying it. Britain could if need be bail out its banks and has done so. Can Ireland or Liechtenstein do the same?

I reckon Brexit is going to make naff all difference. Any trouble and we just point at the 750,000 German jobs Germany reckons depend on trade with the UK and we say, You wouldn't want anything to happen to those, would you?

AFF8879

Also interesting how nobody talks about all the business European investment banks do in the UK through passporting....not an immaterial number!