Poll: Will the Bank drop rates on Thursday?

mwpt

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Carney seems to be getting extremely political today.

He's so far attacked Lord Lamont and Boris Johnson personally. He has covered this political "intervention" by stating his job is to speak out.

He's also sheltering Osborne and suggesting he's done a grand job etc.

The select committe is currently grilling him on whether the BOE themselves exaggerated the risks of Brexit, and essentially, whether the speeches since have been designed to "cause" further damage.

Essentially they are asking what I asked yesterday in a roundabout way - but don't seem to be getting very far. Just a wooly answer of "it is their judgement that brexit will cause downside risks".

So it is your opinion that Carney is a man so evil that he would purposely incite a recession meaning people lose jobs, houses, families, lives, for some undefined political purpose? I just want to be clear on this.

Graham_Devon

mwpt wrote: »

So it is your opinion that Carney is a man so evil that he would purposely incite a recession meaning people lose jobs, houses, families, lives, for some undefined political purpose? I just want to be clear on this.

Erm, no.

I'm simply stating what's happening. You can read about it on the BBC as they are doing live coverage of it. There seems to be an issue with the handling pre and post brexit, hence he is giving evidence to the select comittee.

My own thoughts is that some engineering is going on - yes. If they lower rates on Thursday, I'd like to see the economic reason for doing so. We've gone through about 6 years with rates where they currently are, 3 of those years they did everything they could to avoid changing rates....now all of a sudden, less than a month following a vote they might alter rates....based on what?

mwpt

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Erm, no.

I'm simply stating what's happening. You can read about it on the BBC as they are doing live coverage of it. There seems to be an issue with the handling pre and post brexit, hence he is giving evidence to the select comittee.

My own thoughts is that some engineering is going on - yes. If they lower rates on Thursday, I'd like to see the economic reason for doing so. We've gone through about 6 years with rates where they currently are, 3 of those years they did everything they could to avoid changing rates....now all of a sudden, less than a month following a vote they might alter rates....based on what?

The most likely explanation is that the BOE and financial stability "people" watch a bunch of indicators and are concerned about something. So they are preempting things by pulling their single trick rabbit (lowering interest rates) out the hat.

Or we could go with the tinfoil hat pass the parcel blame methodology of brexiteers and conclude that "the powers that be" are engineering a crash to discredit the brexit campaign.

I'm gonna go ahead and roll my eyes at that one.

Graham_Devon

mwpt wrote: »

The most likely explanation is that the BOE and financial stability "people" watch a bunch of indicators and are concerned about something. So they are preempting things by pulling their single trick rabbit (lowering interest rates) out the hat.

Or we could go with the tinfoil hat pass the parcel blame methodology of brexiteers and conclude that "the powers that be" are engineering a crash to discredit the brexit campaign.

I'm gonna go ahead and roll my eyes at that one.

You keep trying to turn this (and pretty much everything else) into a bitter "brexiter" put down.

All I have said is he has got very political (he has) and I'm would like to know why the fuss over rates all of a sudden - we may yet get to know that.

mwpt

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You keep trying to turn this (and pretty much everything else) into a bitter "brexiter" put down.

Do I? I wonder.

Perhaps it is because I find the view of brexiters flummoxing. When bad stuff happens, you guys get to pass it off as some conspiracy to make it happen, or it was going to happen anyway, or something else. When good stuff happens, "see, told you so!".

All I have said is he has got very political (he has) and I'm would like to know why the fuss over rates all of a sudden - we may yet get to know that.

Graham, who are you trying to kid?

merlingrey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You keep trying to turn this (and pretty much everything else) into a bitter "brexiter" put down.

All I have said is he has got very political (he has) and I'm would like to know why the fuss over rates all of a sudden - we may yet get to know that.

Well the lower pound is beneficial to kickstart a trade surplus, if we are going to leave the EU you actually don't want a strong pound initially because you need the balance of trade to shift more towards exports

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Carney seems to be getting extremely political today.

Theresa May is not a fan of low interest rates or QE. May signal a change of policy direction. With less emphasis on the BOE being responsible for the heavy lifting.

merlingrey

I'm betting rates stay the same and that rate cuts have been priced in to the pound already, so you could have a sell on the rumor buy on the fact either way and see pound back to $1.33 and if the rates are not cut then $1.35.
I placed a trade at 1.29 and am expecting (hoping for) 1.35 Thursday.

If you don't bother with forex normally you can use this etf: LGB5
https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ALGB5&ei=xeeEV5ncMonIUezDjrgJ

If you're betting on the short side then use SGB5

Both at 5x leverage.

mystic_trev

merlingrey wrote: »

I'm betting rates stay the same and that rate cuts have been priced in to the pound already, so you could have a sell on the rumor buy on the fact either way and see pound back to $1.33 and if the rates are not cut then $1.35.
I placed a trade at 1.29 and am expecting (hoping for) 1.35 Thursday.

If you don't bother with forex normally you can use this etf: LGB5
https://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=LON%3ALGB5&ei=xeeEV5ncMonIUezDjrgJ

If you're betting on the short side then use SGB5

Both at 5x leverage.

Good call.

merlingrey

mystic_trev wrote: »

Good call.

Thanks, i'll further add i don't think they'll cut in August, this cutting action is seen as premature given we have not left the EU officially yet, nothing has materially changed except psychology of a future event. And i don't see what could change in the next 3 weeks TBH to make them do anything. As usual with both rate cuts and rate hikes it's all talk most of the time and it seems you get rewarded when you call their bluff.


If they want to keep the pound down they can keep talking the talk, as long as the threat of cuts is there the pound will stay low relative to other currencies so they don't actually have to do anything but bluff, and then if the pound spikes back up towards $1.50 say because everyone's calling BS THEN they'll hit it with a real rate cut , especially if this coincides with a drop in the stock market and/or bond yields rising.

I mean they don't have much to cut before we are at ZIRP, where next? NIRP? like Japan. It's all going to end in tears .