GBP vs USD - where to go from here?

economic

Where does everyone think GBPUSD will be in the near future and in a few years time?

i expect a lot of volatility but i can not see it going back above 1.5 for the foreseeable future. and there is a significant risk of it falling to parity although not sure itll get there, probably to 1.1.

this is a serious devaluation. i m thining of moving to USD/USD stocks/global stocks for my existing savings plus future earnings. just wondering when to take the plunge with existing savings (£50k). luckily i put some in global/US trackers already.

kinger101

The USA haven't played their Trump card yet.

cells

I dont expect it to fall below $1.30 and would expect it more likely to go towards the $1.40 mark

economic

cells wrote: »

I dont expect it to fall below $1.30 and would expect it more likely to go towards the $1.40 mark

why do you say that? $1.4 is where it was pretty much before the vote. are you sying the brexit vote and rate cut and potentially QE announcement has had no effect on sterling vs usd?

what about in a couple of years?

Mistermeaner

Well its either going to go up or down. Definetly worth a thread speculating on this.

cells

economic wrote: »

why do you say that? $1.4 is where it was pretty much before the vote. are you sying the brexit vote and rate cut and potentially QE announcement has had no effect on sterling vs usd?

what about in a couple of years?

I think $1.1 will be unsustainable it would take UK GDP towards $1.95 trillion and per capita GDP towards $29.6k. By comparison that would mean we were very close to Italy and some 20% below France. Surely the UK cant fall below Italy for any sustained time

Looking on a graph
2014 was about $1.6
2015 was about $1.5
2016 looks like it might be $1.4

In the EU I would have expected that within a generation the UK would have taken over the big 3 (France Germany UK) in most the league tables.

economic

cells wrote: »

I think $1.1 will be unsustainable it would take UK GDP towards $1.95 trillion and per capita GDP towards $29.6k. By comparison that would mean we were very close to Italy and some 20% below France. Surely the UK cant fall below Italy for any sustained time

Looking on a graph
2014 was about $1.6
2015 was about $1.5
2016 looks like it might be $1.4

In the EU I would have expected that within a generation the UK would have taken over the big 3 (France Germany UK) in most the league tables.

but you forget what the EUR will do. i expect EUR to also decline (more then GBP) in a scenario here GBP goes to $1.1. Thi sis if BREXIT turns out to be really nasty over the years.

economic

economic wrote: »

but you forget what the EUR will do. i expect EUR to also decline (more then GBP) in a scenario here GBP goes to $1.1. Thi sis if BREXIT turns out to be really nasty over the years.

not to mention the severe decline in italy, germany economies relative to UKs.

kinger101

Mistermeaner wrote: »

Well its either going to go up or down. Definetly worth a thread speculating on this.

I'm not sure. I think it could go down or up instead.

cells

economic wrote: »

but you forget what the EUR will do. i expect EUR to also decline (more then GBP) in a scenario here GBP goes to $1.1. Thi sis if BREXIT turns out to be really nasty over the years.

maybe america can become a super super power over the next 10 years they really lead the world in software and tech and I expect the next 10 years is going to be a golden age for tech and software as near AI develops. Depending on how they play it they may even become the worlds biggest manufacturer again if they decide to not licence their tech but put it into products domestically. So for instance if they develop self drive cars and refuse to licence it they could instead grow to build 20 million self drive cars a year in the USA and export them (I doubt this as its not really their way but its a possibility especially if manufacturing gets so automated that their higher wages dont matter)

But that would be more a booming american economy rather than a UK/EU falling into a depression.


personally I think the 2020-2030 time is going to see a booming world economy on the back of the developments of AI and far greater automation. Whatever the pound to dollar rate we are all going to be richer come 2030