Carney indicates BOE likely to cut interest rates + possible Quantitative Easing

Crashy_Time

mwpt wrote: »

That is the view of a loony.

Also, there are many on the remain side (me for example) who said if there is sign of troubles which also may impact the housing market, this would be short lived because the government would stimulate "growth" through lower rates and QE. So no, not everyone said house prices would fall.

Just like they have been doing for the last 8 years :rotfl: A tiny rate cut is not going to "save" the housing market now, it is in the governments political interest now anyway for prices to drop.

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just like they have been doing for the last 8 years :rotfl: A tiny rate cut is not going to "save" the housing market now, it is in the governments political interest now anyway for prices to drop.

About 75% of the country is still at prices of 10 years ago, there is no incentive want or need outside of a very small community of hpc loons for those areas to fall in price

Any fall in prices quickly results in a crash of new builds as builders cant build at a loss to make your dreams come true.

You then still have the continued demographic need for additional housing from demand for single person households and brexit or not it looks likely that the population will continue to rise


My view for a long while now is that the world was tending to zero real rates. With zero real rates the loger term outcome is that areas with low demand (like much of Germany) will go towards 'worthless' while areas of high demand (like inner London) will go through the roof.

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just like they have been doing for the last 8 years :rotfl: A tiny rate cut is not going to "save" the housing market now, it is in the governments political interest now anyway for prices to drop.

So, you've made a prediction. When would you like to test to see who is correct and what sort of drop are you expecting? And which regions?

I'm in London, so will only speak for London.

If you say a 5-10% drop I'd agree this is possible after a year from now. More, I doubt it. Because rates are not going up as long as the government believes suppressing them is the way to economic prosperity (and it does). And if prices start to drop with rates this low, people like me will be buying bigger houses.

So, what's it to be, when should we agree to settle this "bet"? One year from now? Two years?

Filo25

mwpt wrote: »

So, you've made a prediction. When would you like to test to see who is correct and what sort of drop are you expecting? And which regions?

I'm in London, so will only speak for London.

If you say a 5-10% drop I'd agree this is possible after a year from now. More, I doubt it. Because rates are not going up as long as the government believes suppressing them is the way to economic prosperity (and it does). And if prices start to drop with rates this low, people like me will be buying bigger houses.

So, what's it to be, when should we agree to settle this "bet"? One year from now? Two years?

It'll be interesting to see in London how much the continuing pressure from lack of buyers forces down the price of new builds, if they start getting forced down to much more reasonable levels then that could well have a knock-on effect in the rest of the housing market there.

Failing that I tend to agree that price falls will be relatively subdued in the absence of a lot of forced selling, transaction volumes are already relatively in London and likely to get even lower as sellers sit on their hands waiting for market stabilisation.

The only real drivers I could see for significant falls would be the scenarios below off the top of my head.

A deep recession with significant unemployment leading to forced sales.

Reversal (rather than just slowing or stopping) of overseas capital flows with overseas investors actively selling up and moving out, taking equity out of the market as they do so.

Significant rate rises, which I think we can all agree are likely a long way down the road now

cells

The Bank of England has cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 and said it would buy £60bn of government debt to ease the blow from the UK's Brexit vote.

The Bank said it expected the economy to stagnate for the rest of 2016 and suffer weak growth throughout next year, and lowered its main lending rate to a record-low 0.25 percent from 0.5 percent, in line with market expectations.

It also launched two new schemes - one to buy £10bn of high-grade corporate bonds and another - potentially worth up to £100bn - to ensure banks keep lending even after the cut in interest rates.

Jonbvn

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No collar?

None whatsoever...:money:

westernpromise

Jonbvn wrote: »

None whatsoever...:money:

Me neither. Good, innit!