Property is now in a bear market

lisyloo

looknohands wrote: »

I don't think it really matters, I've heard an 18% fall rumored, in one sense this would wipe out a lot of the equity in my current property, though I'm not concerned. Nobody has to sell up do they! I'd imagine people hold on to their homes, rent them out and look to buy another property at the bottom of the crash, then you have a rental income and two properties, one recovering in value and one building in value.

Yes some people to have to sell up. They are called forced sellers.
This can happen when someone dies and beneficiaries don't want or can't wait for prices to improve (could be a long haul).
Where a couple have split up and they need the money for alternative accomodation.
Or where someone has had to relocate due to ther office moving.

So yes sonetimes people can't of don't want to wait for the market to improve.
If it's an inheritance then you might not be too bothered that the property is worth less than when it wasn't yours anyway. You might just prefer the cash.

cells

lisyloo wrote: »

Yes some people to have to sell up. They are called forced sellers.
This can happen when someone dies and beneficiaries don't want or can't wait for prices to improve (could be a long haul).
Where a couple have split up and they need the money for alternative accomodation.
Or where someone has had to relocate due to ther office moving.

So yes sonetimes people can't of don't want to wait for the market to improve.
If it's an inheritance then you might not be too bothered that the property is worth less than when it wasn't yours anyway. You might just prefer the cash.

there was a definite crash in volumes during the last economic recession. The reason is two fold. First new build rates go down which has a multiplier effect. Secondly more people stay put as they dont want to spend the cost and taxes on moving when there is a recession about

If prices fall again there will be a similar outcome, less new builds and fewer transactions both of which will keep price falls somewhat modest

lisyloo

Agree cells, just dispute the comment that no-one is ever forced to sell.
Yes of course transaction volume can crash.

economic

and volumes being so low doesnt means prices dont fall....

cells

economic wrote: »

and volumes being so low doesnt means prices dont fall....

well last time the 2008 recession was global and terrible it was a banking crisis and a recession and all that combined resulted in about a 10% fall in prices and then a recovery in most of england and a boom in London

I dont expect Brexit to be worse than the banking crisis and recession of 2008. I think a recession is possible or close to 0% growth for a year or two and no banking crisis so I dont expect prices to fall however I think London is now 'fully priced in' possibly for the next 5 years. So we may get a longer term of flat prices. Certainly I dont expect to see London double again in the next 5 years that would truly be an epic bubble if the average London home went to £1million

luvpump

AG47 wrote: »

Property in the uk is now in a bear market, but why buy now when you prices will be lower if you wait even longer.

All those poor sellers trying to undercut each other.

5% down over the next yr i would suggest

padington

AG47 wrote: »

now uk down from aaa to just aa.

Bear market for dure

Things sold in Pound getting cheaper, interest rates lower,
QE on the horizon ...

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

now uk down from aaa to just aa.

Bear market for dure

Oh dear! That's bad news for you, someone like you will really suffer in a bear market, sorry to hear that old chap. Hopefully you still have some money left after selling your imaginary property portfolio at the top of the market.

BarleyGB

economic wrote: »

why do you think this?

The ripple hasn't spread far out of London yet
Low unemployment
Low inflation
Stable growth
Low interest rates to remain/drop further
Low supply
No macro threats on horizon
A lot of people still wanting to buy
Increasing population
still not recovered from last recession, boom years potentially yet to come
MMR / stress tested lending

economic

BarleyGB wrote: »

The ripple hasn't spread far out of London yet
Low unemployment
Low inflation
Stable growth
Low interest rates to remain/drop further
Low supply
No macro threats on horizon
A lot of people still wanting to buy
Increasing population
still not recovered from last recession, boom years potentially yet to come
MMR / stress tested lending

even in london?