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When's the first interest rate rise going to come?
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westernpromise
Posts: 4,833 Forumite
...today?
If the currency tanks 10% that implies higher import costs which implies higher inflation which implies higher base rates which implies higher mortgage rates.
The later you leabe the rises the bigger they need to be. OTOH, there is so much more debt today that a smaller rise takes otu more demand than it did in the past.
I don't see a rate rise today but on this year must now be much likelier.
MoneySavingExpert Insert:
Hi all, if you want to see Martin's view on us leaving the EU read our news story:
Martin's reaction to Brexit: what will it mean for the economy, mortgages, savings and more?
If the currency tanks 10% that implies higher import costs which implies higher inflation which implies higher base rates which implies higher mortgage rates.
The later you leabe the rises the bigger they need to be. OTOH, there is so much more debt today that a smaller rise takes otu more demand than it did in the past.
I don't see a rate rise today but on this year must now be much likelier.
MoneySavingExpert Insert:
Hi all, if you want to see Martin's view on us leaving the EU read our news story:
Martin's reaction to Brexit: what will it mean for the economy, mortgages, savings and more?
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westernpromise wrote: »...today?
If the currency tanks 10% that implies higher import costs which implies higher inflation which implies higher base rates which implies higher mortgage rates.
The later you leabe the rises the bigger they need to be. OTOH, there is so much more debt today that a smaller rise takes otu more demand than it did in the past.
I don't see a rate rise today but on this year must now be much likelier.
The sooner the better.
I'm sick of getting a paltry amount of interest on my savings.:footie:
Regular savers earn 6% interest (HSBC, First Direct, M&S) Loans cost 2.9% per year (Nationwide) = FREE money. 0 -
the thing is the economy is likely to be still very much slow. most likely we are in stagflation.0
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The sooner the better.
I'm sick of getting a paltry amount of interest on my savings.
It isn't just about savings rates, you can't ignore inflation. Personally I don't have a strong opinion, I just don't know what to think about this situation.Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
As I said a few days ago, this could be one of those things that benefits quite a few people (those wanting decent savings rates and / or lower house prices) who don't give the government any credit, while harming a lot of people who assign the government the blame,0
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westernpromise wrote: »...today?
If the currency tanks 10% that implies higher import costs which implies higher inflation which implies higher base rates which implies higher mortgage rates.
The later you leabe the rises the bigger they need to be. OTOH, there is so much more debt today that a smaller rise takes otu more demand than it did in the past.
I don't see a rate rise today but on this year must now be much likelier.
GBP was lower in March - didn't see anyone calling for rate rises then?I think....0 -
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As I said in my post on property here:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5483785
I don't see a rise in interest rates. Governments and central banks are slow to change and they still believe they can stoke up growth by lowering interest rates. So, with a dipping economy, a government is going to prefer to sit on a downward trending pound than raise rates imo. We saw 2008 they sat on a 20%+ drop.
The market seems to agree. Risk off mode means 10 Year Gilt yields plunged 20% this morning. This means people are happy to buy UK debt for even lower returns than ever before. Part of this is safety but my guess is part of it is because they do not expect any rise in interest rates for some time.0 -
THERE WILL BE NO RATE RISE FOR US
As I was at points to explain, leaving would make us even safer relative to the EU - you will see investment pour into Britain0 -
westernpromise wrote: »As I said a few days ago, this could be one of those things that benefits quite a few people (those wanting decent savings rates and / or lower house prices) who don't give the government any credit, while harming a lot of people who assign the government the blame,
Justifiably in this instance.
The Conservatives won an election by giving people a referendum on a permanent change which their leader argued was bad for Britain.
Whichever side of the referendum debate you were on (i.e. even if you think Cameron was wrong to say that Brexit would be a bad thing), I assume you'd accept that that's a fair characterisation?0 -
westernpromise wrote: »March? It hasn't been at these levels to the dollar since 1985.
27 feb 16 1.38.6, currently 1.39.6I think....0
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