The EU and the Economy

michaels

Most leading commentators suggest UK GDP will grow more slowly over the next 5-15 years (depending on forecast) if we leave the EU than if we remain within.

However:
1) This is GDP not GDP per head, as they also forecast slower population growth the impact on GDP per head (closer to what actually matters) will obviously be smaller
2) Nothing has been said about the distribution of any losses. If they are concentrated amongst the highest earners then Brexit is definitely the progressive option.
3) The EU as a protectionsit block imposes tariffs on imports from outside pushing up prices for almost all goods and especially food, this is regressive and leaving may well lead to a fall in prices (effective increase in real income) benefitting those at the bottom most.
4) Being a conglomeration of 28 states it is extremely difficult for the EU to negotiate a trade deal to suit all states hence why they have so few deals negotiated over such long periods.
5) Economic forecasts are notoriously unreliable, in the past we were told that leaving the ERM (black Wednesday) would spell disaster, actually this kick started growth after a long recession, similarly we were told that not joining the Euro would spell disaster – again the UK has performed the Eurozone economies.
6) Whilst GDP per head is probably the best measure of economic well-being we have it does not cover things like waiting times to see a GP or not being able to get a seat on the bus or train
7) Patrick Minford presents a realistic scenario whereby the UK ditches tariff controls and as per economic theory, flourishes as a trading nation much as Singapore has done.

I do have a degree in economics (which probably just means I am completely aware how difficult any economic forecasting is) but whilst I accept there will be an impact on GDP I don’t think it will be large enough to offset the gain in democracy.

And that is why I am voting out.

cells

migration has probably contributed more to GDP and GDP/Head growth than we realize when you take into account the fact that migrants taking lower skill lower pay jobs push up the locals on the pay/skill scale

I have not seen any papers try to look at this in detail and go through its implications. But so far that one thing is slightly making me lean towards voting to stay or rather more accurately voting for more migration rather than less.

ruggedtoast

vote no to clapton and ukip vote remain

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Nothing has been said about the distribution of any losses. If they are concentrated amongst the highest earners then Brexit is definitely the progressive option.

As the poor as most reliant on welfare payments for their income they are pretty much invariably the worst hit by economic problems.

More troublingly, a drop in GDP effectively means a drop in NHS budgets and that will mean more people dying that could have been cured. How many deaths are worth it? We can probably work out how many are likely to die in any economic scenario.

Thrugelmir

What about the lack of productivity and huge trade imbalance. Far more concerning than nominal GDP. When did GDP become the be all and end all? Profit can either be distributed in either dividends or wages. If the ownership is foreign then capital will flow abroad.

globalds

Generali wrote: »

More troublingly, a drop in GDP effectively means a drop in NHS budgets and that will mean more people dying that could have been cured. How many deaths are worth it? We can probably work out how many are likely to die in any economic scenario.

NHS budgets are falling as a share of GDP and will for a long time to come..

You better ask anyone who voted conservative at the last election How many deaths are worth it ?

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's PM programme, its economist John Appleby said: "If we go back to the early 1950s we were spending something like 3% of GDP on the NHS and that went up to a high of nearly 8% of GDP in about 2009.
"Since then, austerity, government decisions about funding the NHS, has meant that as a share of GDP what we devote to the NHS has started to decline."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34586871

prosaver

globalds wrote: »

NHS budgets are falling as a share of GDP and will for a long time to come..

You better ask anyone who voted conservative at the last election How many deaths are worth it ?





http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34586871

The King's Fund analysis says: "The 10 years up to 2020-21 are likely to see the largest sustained fall in NHS spending as a share of GDP in any period since 1951."


likely ..wise up folks
Iuse to like the likely lads..Iwonder what happen to them?:D

globalds

prosaver wrote: »

The King's Fund analysis says: "The 10 years up to 2020-21 are likely to see the largest sustained fall in NHS spending as a share of GDP in any period since 1951."


likely ..wise up folks
Iuse to like the likely lads..Iwonder what happen to them?:D

Ha ha ..you are telling me we haven't seen any cuts in the NHS ?

cells

globalds wrote: »

NHS budgets are falling as a share of GDP and will for a long time to come..

You better ask anyone who voted conservative at the last election How many deaths are worth it ?





http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34586871

the peak in 2009 is probably a reflection of the low point in the recession rather than a high point in the NHS

For instance if next year the NHS budget was exactly the same yet the economy tanked 10% it would show up as the NHS spending v GDP had jumped quite substantially while in reality the budget would be exactly the same

prosaver

I had a scan laat year and i was only inthere for 20 mins so i think the cuts have kicked up everyone up the 4rse to be more efficient in the NHS.... btw i brought a book and everything cause i thought i would be in there for ages... ruined my day out ,had to go home and use the heating up in my house.. not very mse

tincans6

michaels wrote: »

7) Patrick Minford presents a realistic scenario whereby the UK ditches tariff controls and as per economic theory, flourishes as a trading nation much as Singapore has done.

You can't really believe this can you ?