GDP, the NHS and life expectancy

michaels

International comparisons and historical data show a strong correlation between gdp and life expectancy.

Similarly the NHS has to make life and death decisions every day about what life saving treatments are affordable given a limited budget.

As gdp increases over time we are able to spend more money on the NHS and therefore keep more people alive for longer.

Thus any political decision that was believed to be likely to severely reduce gdp would likely result in less nhs funding and more deaths than otherwise.

In govt and the nhs policy makers have to make real decisions each day: perhaps considering the life of 10 cancer patients who could benefit from gene therapy or 1m children who could be vaccinated against meningitis.

If you were pretty certain leaving the eu would lead to a 5% reduction in gdp presumably you could come up with a crude number of the patients the resulting reduction in nhs spending would result in going untreated. Given those potential deaths, what lengths would you go to make sure that remain win the referendum?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

As gdp increases over time we are able to spend more money on the NHS and therefore keep more people alive for longer.

Are we? In what way is GDP a measurement of money available to spend. .

kabayiri

Futurama got it right.

You don't need to keep whole people alive, just their head.

Imagine just how many workers you could have in the City then!

I suppose the downside is when EasyJet stuff you in the baggage department on your annual vacation

gfplux

The NHS budget is a political decision.
It has very little or nothing to do with GDP.
What the "managers" do with that budget is what managers do. If you appoint managers then you have to leave them to manage.

If you run or allow to run two systems side by side (Public and Private) do not be surprised there are conflicts, duplication, dilution and confusion.

CLAPTON

last year our GDP went up by an 'extra ' 1.5% due to including sex work and some other changes to bring us into line with international systems
Does this mean that our life expectancy increased too?

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

The NHS budget is a political decision.

The way it is spent isn't. Difficult choices have to be made. Money is finite.

michaels

gfplux wrote: »

The NHS budget is a political decision.
It has very little or nothing to do with GDP.

I don't agree - obviously at the limit it can not exceed 100% of GDP by definiton but in reality there needs to be other productive activity to support the taxation needed for health spending. I have no doubt that had the economy not suffereed the sharp credit crunch recession we would be spending more on health now even if the share of GDP was similar just because gdp would have been higher.

So trading off a single life in order to prevent a fall of 5% in GDP and hundreds or thousands of deaths due to reduced health spending seems like a reasonable trade off doesn't it? And if that death were also to prevent world war 3 and an existential threat to the nation then what politiican in good conscience could not make the unpleasant decision?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

I don't agree - obviously at the limit it can not exceed 100% of GDP by definiton but in reality there needs to be other productive activity to support the taxation needed for health spending. I have no doubt that had the economy not suffereed the sharp credit crunch recession we would be spending more on health now even if the share of GDP was similar just because gdp would have been higher.

So trading off a single life in order to prevent a fall of 5% in GDP and hundreds or thousands of deaths due to reduced health spending seems like a reasonable trade off doesn't it? And if that death were also to prevent world war 3 and an existential threat to the nation then what politiican in good conscience could not make the unpleasant decision?

What's the connection between GDP and taxation?

The credit crunch was the start of a correction. After a boom built on debt. Resolving the debt question is as yet unanswered.