Referendum Puzzler

RocketRod

I recently transferred around £80,000 from an old FSAVC with Aviva with no guarantees into a sipp with them in order to take the 25% TFLS and at some stage invest the rest for flexi drawdown over the next 20 years.
I'm 61 and took voluntary redundancy at the end of last year with the hope of delaying my DB pension until I reach 63. I don't intend to return to work.
My question is whether to leave the remaining £60,000 in their flexi-drawdown cash account until after next month's European Referendum?
I'm considering investing it in one of Aviva's ready-made multi-asset funds with low-medium risks but I'm worried the value will drop sharply if there is a vote to leave Europe.
Any advice or recommendations regarding a better home for the cash would be much appreciated.

bigfreddiel

No one knows what will happen, but no one wants to admit that.

Cast your mind back to 1999 and the millennium bug! It was going to be the end of the world. Sat AV was going to fail, satellites and aircraft were going to fall out of the sky. Power stations were going to fail. Water supplies would dry up tor flood. Banks were going to collapse. IT departments were on standby at midnight 31 Dec 1999. Leave was cancelled, backups stored, recovery plans constructed, sleepless nights in the months beforehand.

What happened?

Nothing!

Don't worry chaps, panic over!

BREXIT Will be the same, just go for it!

Cheers fj

AnotherJoe

bigfreddiel wrote: »

No one knows what will happen, but no one wants to admit that.

Cast your mind back to 1999 and the millennium bug! It was going to be the end of the world. Sat AV was going to fail, satellites and aircraft were going to fall out of the sky. Power stations were going to fail. Water supplies would dry up tor flood. Banks were going to collapse. IT departments were on standby at midnight 31 Dec 1999. Leave was cancelled, backups stored, recovery plans constructed, sleepless nights in the months beforehand.

What happened?

Nothing!

Don't worry chaps, panic over!

BREXIT Will be the same, just go for it!

Cheers fj

What???? There's no comparison whatsoever between these two apart from the fact that both are "events"???
(FWIW the reason "nothing happened" is that a heck of a lot of work was done to ensure nothing happened, you might as well say what a waste of time all that work they've done on the M4 bridge across to Wales is, since it never fell down.)

Anyway, back on topic, the referendum, well no one knows what will happen, eg is the price of a brexit already priced in so there wont be a crash after a brexit vote, will the markets jump if the stay vote wins?

But if you have a global fund that covers the world markets, then it will only have say 10-15% in the UK so it wont matter. Shares in Toyota Japan or Starbucks USA arent going to move either way are they? If you bought a FTSE250 fund, well it probably will jump one way or another but thats not what you're looking at I think?

FWIW I haven't sold any of my UK shares on the grounds that longer term it wont matter and I'm equally likely to miss a rise as a fall(more likely I'd guess. )

But its only a month or so away, being in or out of global markets for that time wont make any odds anyway so why not just stay out then you wont be so anxious, that can wait until the next event that tips the markets. How about a Trump win?

RocketRod

Thanks AnotherJoe. I'm tempted to stay put and will probably make my mind up over the next week or so.

If there is a vote to Leave do you think after a short lull it would be a good time to invest and take the money out of cash in the hope that things can only get better?!!!

atush

Well i expect the prices of UK equities to fall if we brexit and for things priced in dollars like petrol/oil to rise as the pound drops. Also prices in US firms in global funds, being priced in USD should actually rise.

But if we dont brexit, the UK markets could rise, and GBP strengthen.

So no one knows. If you want to sit in cash, no harm no foul. Up to you.

Triumph13

As others have said, no-one knows which way the markets will move whichever way the vote goes. If I were in your position I'd be tempted to put part in now and part in afterwards. If you want to add some excitement you could even go crazy and do something like 25% this week, 25% a couple of days before the vote, 25% a couple of days after and 25% when the dust settles!

bigfreddiel

AnotherJoe wrote: »

What???? There's no comparison whatsoever between these two apart from the fact that both are "events"???
(FWIW the reason "nothing happened" is that a heck of a lot of work was done to ensure nothing happened, you might as well say what a waste of time all that work they've done on the M4 bridge across to Wales is, since it never fell down.)

Anyway, back on topic, the referendum, well no one knows what will happen, eg is the price of a brexit already priced in so there wont be a crash after a brexit vote, will the markets jump if the stay vote wins?

But if you have a global fund that covers the world markets, then it will only have say 10-15% in the UK so it wont matter. Shares in Toyota Japan or Starbucks USA arent going to move either way are they? If you bought a FTSE250 fund, well it probably will jump one way or another but thats not what you're looking at I think?

FWIW I haven't sold any of my UK shares on the grounds that longer term it wont matter and I'm equally likely to miss a rise as a fall(more likely I'd guess. )

But its only a month or so away, being in or out of global markets for that time wont make any odds anyway so why not just stay out then you wont be so anxious, that can wait until the next event that tips the markets. How about a Trump win?

The who.e point of my millennium example was to illustrate what a load of old cobblers people spout. It makes no difference what the subject is the end result is the same

Cheers fj

atush

Your events had no correlation, I am with Joe on this.

greenglide

Me too. I work in IT and we fixed numerous defects in code related to the way they held and manipulated dates.

The first one was in 1994 - we couldn't store the course end dates university courses over 5 years long, there are some!